Transcript IMP1-PIG-Feb1,2-2010 - Shope-Math

Feb.1 (P)/ Feb.2 (W) Warm Up
1. Empty right side of folder and put your papers in the
correct section in your binder
2. You have a $1, a $5, a $10 and a $20 in your left
pocket. You have two $10’s and two $20’s in
your right pocket. You pick a bill randomly
from each pocket and return it each time.
Make a rug showing all possible sums you will have in
your hand (outcomes) and find the probability of
each. (One outcome for this situation is the sum of
one bill chosen from your left pocket and one bill
chosen from your right pocket)
You have 10 minutes to complete ths warm-up.
Instructional Objective
Students will be able to find the average
amount won or lost per turn in different
situations.
Agenda- Feb 1 (P)/ Feb 2 (W)
Warm up
Announcements
Submit POW
Pointed Rugs, pg. 110 debrief
Mia’s Cards, pg. 113
One-and-One, pg. 115
A 60% Solution, pg. 116
EXIT QUIZ
Homework
DUE NEXT CLASSpg. 157 Pointed Rugs Expectations
Due today: pg. 83, POW- submit in folder
MISSING ASSIGNMENTS due Feb. 3, 4
Homework due on or before Jan. 27 will not be
accepted after this date
You must make an appt to submit this work
pg. 110 Pointed Rugs
1. Find your probabilities for your rug from
“Rug Games” in your class work.
2. Read pg. 110.
3. Decide which color is best to bet on to
maximize your points in the long run
4. Decide on a number of games to play
then FIND the total points you would win
for each color for your number of games.
pg. 110 debrief
Groups present their work.
Questions:
1. Do some numbers of games work better
than others?
2. What numbers are easier to work with?
KEEP “Pointed Rugs” – do not submit
you can use it to help you do your HW
BASIC STEPS to finding expected value:
Expected Value is the average gain or lost per
turn in the long run
1. Find the total # of possible outcomes.
2. Find the probabilities.
3. Decide on a number of turns or games.
4. Determine how much you gain or lose.
5. Expected value = total gain or lost DIVIDED
by # of turns.
Remember, your chances come close to theoretical
probability if you play a lot of games!
pg. 113 Mia’s Cards
Card basics:
52 cards in a deck
4 “suits”:
hearts, spades, clubs and diamonds
13 cards in each “suit” are:
Ace, King, Queen, Jack, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2
DO PAGE 113, 1 and 2 with your group
Be ready to present your results
You have 10 minutes to complete this activity.
pg. 113 Mia’s cards debrief
Does an expected value an exected value
of 6.25 points per turn mean that Mia will
get 6.25 points each time she draws a
card?
One-and-One Situation
In basketball, when a player is fouled,
they get to take a “free throw”.
One-and-One Situation:
Miss first shot ---------------0 points, no 2nd shot
Hit first shot----1 pt and chance for another
Hit 2nd shot-----add another 1 pt.
so there are THREE possibilities:
Miss first shot- 0 pts. and you are done
Hit first shot/ miss 2nd- 1 pt
Hit first show and hit 2nd – 2 pts.
One-and-One, pg. 115
A Sixty % Solution, pg. 116
Read pg. 115 together. Write your prediction
in your class work!
Look at pg. 116why a simulation? how many cubes?
SIMULATION: an imitation of something real
Do simulation working with a partner.
Answer questions 2 – 4 in your class work.
60% average free throw shooter
what does this mean?
In 100 shots, how many does she hit on
average? miss?
In 10 shots, how many does she hit on
average? miss?
A 60% Solution, pg. 116
Simulation- play 40 times
1. Shake the bag and pull out a cube.
2. If the cube is “yellow”, the simulation is over.
Write a “0” for your score.
3. If the cube is “blue”, put the cube back and
draw again.
If the 2nd cube is “yellow”, write “1” for the score
(you made 1 shot but missed the second).
If the 2nd cube is “blue”, write “2” for the score
(you made both shots)
4.TALLY YOUR number of 0’s, 1’s and 2’s
A Sixty % Solution- debrief
1. Compile class data
2. In a one-and-one situation, how many points
is Terry most likely to score- 0, 1 or 2?
3. What is the difference between observed
results and theoretical analysis?
4. What is your average score? (total points
divided by number of “situations”)
5. Do you think that the simulation is a good
method for analyzing the situation?
EXIT QUIZ
Situation: Mia will earn 10 points if she
randomly draws a heart from a well
shuffled stack of cards. She gets no
points if she draws a club, spade or
diamond. She does this over and over.
Question: If she plays 52 times (randomly
selects a card then returns it), find the
average number of points she will win per
turn.
(YOU MAY USE YOUR NOTES)