Transcript “No Child Left Behind” Iowa established a performance trajectory for

Iowa Professional Development Model
Data Analysis
Iowa Department of Education
Reading & Math Trajectories
Dr. Edward Gronlund
Coordinator of Quality Learning
Student Performance Expectations
“No Child Left Behind”
• Iowa established a
performance trajectory for
4th, 8th, and 11th grade
reading and mathematics
achievement.
• Iowa’s trajectory has
modest gains in the early
years with bigger gains in
later years.
• Iowa’s NCLB plan has
established achievement
expectations for all students
and sub-groups.
NCLB 2001-2014
4th Grade Reading
Numbers of Students
Proficient
65%
120
100
Chapter 12
71%
80
83%
77%
88%
State's
Trajectory
60
40
NCLB
20
0
1
3
5
7
9
Years
.
11 13 15
Where does the trajectory begin?
Rank order all district 4th grades by
percent proficient.
80% of Iowa’s
4th Grade
Students
20% of Iowa’s
4th Grade
Students
Rank order all district 4th grades in Iowa
What district proficiency level
has 20% of the students
fall below it?
65% of the 4th graders are proficient.
The state average is 75.9% proficient in 4th grade reading.
Confidence Interval
4th Grade Reading
Measurement Error
Number of Students
Proficient
100
80
60
State's
Trajectory
40
Confidence
Interval
20
0
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15
Years
Confidence interval varies based on student numbers.
A large number of students generates a small interval and small number of students
generates a larger interval.
What happens to schools that are improving
but are below the state’s trajectory?
28
72
28
35.2
64.8
35.2
41.68
58.32
41.68
47.512
52.488
47.512
Safe Harbor
120
% of Students
20
80
20
100
80
60
40
20
10% reduction in
the non-proficient
students
Safe Harbor
Number Students
Proficient
120
100
80
State's Trajectory
60
Safe Harbor
40
20
0
1
3
5
7
Years
9
11
13
Expectations
Percent of Students
120
100
80
State's Trajectory
60
District's Trajectory
40
Below the Trajectory
20
Confidence Interval
0
1
2 3 4
5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Years
SINA
2 years
Expectations
Percent of Students
120
100
If you are above the trajectory but your
scores are declining?
Chapter 12
80
State's Trajectory
60
District's Trajectory
40
Below the Trajectory
20
Safe Harbor
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Years If you are below the confidence interval
and improving, safe harbor may apply.
Percent of Students
Expectations
You may want to examine your data and use the
trajectory to help you set goals.
120
84%
4% gain
100
80
State's Trajectory
60
District's Trajectory
40
20
25% gain
55%
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Years
Below the Trajectory