Transcript Information Technology - Trends

EMERGING TRENDS
in
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
By
Maj Gen (Dr)R K Bagga AVSM
INFORMATION DOUBLING PERIODS
(GEORGE ANDRELA, FRANCE 1973)
INFORMATION EXPLOSION
REMARKS
YEAR
0AD
1500
1750
1900
1950
1967
1973
1976
1991
2000
2003
PERIOD
1500
250
150
50
17
6
3
.
.
.
.
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PRINTING PRESS
COMPUTER
*128 TIMES AD1
(THE ELECTRONIC BAZAR by ROBIN BLOOR)
INTERNET
EVERY MONTH ?
EVERY MINUTE ?
Managing Today’s Enterprise
• Global
Competition
• Mergers,
Acquisitions &
Dependencies
• Operations
Geographically
Dispersed
• Customer
Expectations
Changing
Computer + Communication
(Process/Store) (Transfer)
IS
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Intel Microprocessor Evolution
100M
Micro
2000
10M
P6
TM
500
Pentium
Processor
1M
25
80486
80386
100K
1.0
80286
8088
10K
0.1
8080
4004
1975
Transistors
1980
1985
1990
1995
0.1
MIPS
Intel microprocessors have approximately doubled in transistor
count every 18 months. At this rate, Intel processors should
contain between 50 to 100 million transistors by the turn of the
century and execute 2 billion instructions per second.
Moore’s Law for Semiconductor Technology
1.00E + 08
•
Actual
Predicted
1.00E + 07
•
•
•
1.00E + 06
•
1.00E + 05
•
•
1.00E + 04
1.00E + 03
•
•
1970
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
1995
10,000
Moore’s Law for Bandwidth
(suggested IEEE Comsoc Oct99)
•
Actual modem speeds
“Moore’s Law” prediction
1000
100
• •
10
•
1
0.1
• • •
• •
•
• • •
•
1987
1991
1995
Year
1999
2003
INTERNET EXPLOSION
Internet host computers grew from 300,000 in 1990 to
2.2 million in 1993
Educational 45%
Commercial 37%
Military 7%
Govt 8%
Others 3%
INCREASE 50Million--- 1% Per Day
Source: SRI International / Communication
INTERNET / INTRANET / ENTRANET
INTERNET
INTRANET
EXTRANET
WEB
Information can
Information is
primarily for external only be accessed
access but can be used
internally
internally
External access is
limited to main trading
partners
THE SPEED OF CHANGE OF THE INTERNET IS
DRIVING INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH
 12 million e-mail messages in next
in addition to 0.5 million voice mail messages
minute,
Global Internet Users
 37 million people will log on to the net today
and choose from 830 million web pages!
 In the next 100 days, Internet traffic will double
 More than 100 million additional Internet users
and 25 million websites will come on-line in 2000
 More than 25 million new Web sites will come on-line
in the next year
 E-commerce projected to reach $7 trillion by 2004
 More than 600 million devices connected to cellular
networks by 2002
327M
151M
18M
1994 1998 2000
METCALF MAGIC LAW
“ VALUE OF A NETWORK IS
PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF
THE NUMBER OF USERS ”
TOTAL NETWORK BENEFIT = KU2
K = CONSTANT
U = USERS
GARTNER GROUP FORECAST
 By 2001 140 million Internet users
Worldwide
 By 2001 Gap between developed and
developing countries decrease by 40%
 By 2003 Internet adoption Worldwide as
function of economic growth
 Decreased local Internet access costs in
developing countries
Contd… GARTNER GROUP FORECAST
 By 2003 ISP market will go from explosion
to restructuring through consolidation
 By 2003 Super Carriers will give multinational gateways for Worldwide
Internet access.
 Acceleration for encryption and Worldwide
Government restriction on use of
Internet.
INTERNET BUBBLE - IPO’S
(PERKINS - RED HERING)
COMPANY
% RETURN
(MAY 1998 - APR, 1999)
HEALTHEON
3339
e-BAY
3269
ABOVENET
1853
AMERI TRADE
1105
MESSAGE MEDIA
886
GO2NET
872
CMG
792
INFO*TRADE
952
BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES
611
THE INDIANS IN IT
HOTMAIL
…
JUNGLEE
…
SYCAMORE
…
TIBCO
…
i2 TECHNOLOGIES…
ART TECH GP
…
JUNIPER
…
INFOSPACE
…
REDBACK
…
E-SPEAK
…
SABEER BHATIA
RAKESH MATHUR ET AL
GURURAJ DESHPANDE
VIVEK RANADIVE
SANJIV SIDHU
JEET SINGH
PRADEEP SINDHU
NAVIN JAIN
VIVEK RAGHAVAN
RAJIV GUPTA
DOT.COM GRAVE YARD
(www.upside.com/graveyard)
4 JULY 2001
Name
Born
Died
Bush Rate
(Millions)
Bazillon.com
Carclub.com
Cyber Rebate.com
Dasti’s*new*
Foodline.com
Honebytes.com
imotors.com
Kozmo.com
MarchFirst.com
Rx.com
Spacework.com
Voter.com
1999
May, 1998
Jan, 2000
Late 1998
1998
Sept, 1999
1997
1999
June, 1989
1993
Mar, 1999
15 Jan 2001
1 May, 2001
16 May, 2001
June, 2001
2 Jan 2001
1 May 2001
25 Apr, 2001
12 Apr 2001
May, 2001
10 May 2001
1 May 2001
6 Feb 2001
Nil
$45 M
Nil
$100 M
$12 M
$39 M
$80 M
$20 M
$350 M
$6 M
$2 M
ICE Market in INDIA & the
WORLD-2000
DOW JONE
NASDAQ
30
20
10
0
500
10
449
400
INDIA 2000
20
300
BS ICE INDEX
30
200
245
148
100
154
0
JAN FEB MAR APR
MAY JUNE JULY AUG
SEP OCT NOV DEC
159
10 INTERNET PREDICTIONS
BY MR MODEM
1. Web shakeout to continue for one more year
2. Web to stabilize in 2 years (by 2003)
3. Info. Availability (anywhere, any time) will not
replace Human Decision Process
4. Internet based education programme to
increase
5. Private online communication will proliferate
6. Pager, PDA & Cellphone to converge
Contd…
10 INTERNET PREDICTIONS
BY MR MODEM
7. Immediate access to Info will be norm
8. Internet Telephone will reduce call charges
9. Internet users will be all pervasive
10. E-Commerce – will depend on 3A’s.
- Authenticator
- Authorization
- Assurance
( Internet Guide for Seniors )
- RICHARD SHERMAN
De-mystify I T Concept?
1970s
1980s
1990s
Y2K
Beyond (Y2K)
Information
Age!
Optimize
• JIT, KANBAN, ...
Quality
• TQM, ISO, CMM, ...
Strategy
• SBP, Benchmarking, ...
Process
• BPR, ABC, ABM, ...
Knowledge
• KM
Mass --------> Lean --------> Flexible -----> Agile --->>>
MainFrames
PCs
Client/Server
Networks
Wearable
LEADERSHIP FOR
E-BUSINESS
“Five years from now, all companies will be
Internet companies, or no companies at all.”
-Andy Grove, Chairman of Intel, 1999
Who is going to lead the transformation in your
company?
How will they transform the company?
IT VALUE CREATION IN
NEW e-CONOMY
INFO FREEDOM & GLOBALISATION
MORE EFFICIENT MARKET
CUSTOMISATION
LOWER TRANSACTION COST
NEW ENTRANT TO ESTABLISH
MARKET e/m-COMMERCE
EXPLOITION OF IT & INTERNET
MERGERS & ACQUISITION
GANG OF FOUR
1.E-MAIL
2.WEBSITE
3.SEARCH ENGINES
4.MUD (MULTI USER DOMAIN)
OR COMMUNITY
Framework of Global IT
(Govt. Hands Off)
• Private Sector to lead via market-driven
self regulation
• Govt. not to impose New/Unnecessary
regulation, bureaucratic procedures,
taxes/tariffs
• Internet is unique & does not fall under
jurisdiction of existing laws & regulations
Framework of Global IT
(Govt. Hands Off)
• Cyber Laws - Consistent/Predictable legal
environment for IPR, fraud prevention &
privacy - Min involvement of Govt.
• Facilitate E-Commerce on Global Basis !
EMERGING TRENDSCOMPUTERS
 GUI - USER FRIENDLY
 STORAGE CAPACITY - INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
 DATA WAREHOUSE - TERABYTE INFO
 MULTIMEDIA - INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
 INTELLIGENT SYSTEM - INCREASE / IMPORTANCE
 OBJECT - ORIENTED TECHNIQUE - WIDE
ACCEPTABILITY
 COMPUTERS SIZE - INCREASINGLY COMPACT
EMERGING TRENDS NETWORKING





CLIENT - SERVER ARCHITECTURE - PRE-DOMINANT
PORTABLE / MOBILE - INCREASINGLY
HOME COMPUTING - ON DEMAND SERVICES
INTERNET NG - SUPER HIGHWAY
INTRANET - ENTERPRISE KNOWLEDGE
REPOSITORY
 ELECTRONIC COMMERCE - CHANGE BUSINESS
WAYS
 INTELLIGENT SEARCH AGENTS - AT YOUR SERVICE
COST EFFECTIVE SOLUTION !
EVEN IN INDIAN ENVIRONMENT
JDI- DIRECTIVE
(Robin Bloor)
Make sure every one in the company has a PC,
Internet access.
Order all executives to surf Web on daily basis
(Even CEO)
Encourage use of email
Insist that Marketing Department monitors the
WEB for competition
Insist Procurement Department use the WEB to
check prices
If not on WEB – Do it now or Die
Any Questions ?