Transcript Digital Media 101 - Maremel Institute

Digital Media 101
Drivers & Frameworks: How We Got
Here and
Where We are Going
Dr. Gigi Johnson, Executive Director, Maremel Institute
Education Programs in Media and Cultural Change
@maremel
1
Computers as a retail consumer product
seemed humorous in 1965
Cartoon, Gordon Moore article
Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19,
1965.
2
2 Forces Geometrically Changed
How We Connect
Dramatic increase and diffusion of data,
storage, and computer processing power into
the system and into homes and cell phones
Dramatic decrease in the cost of “distance”
(Cairncross, 1997) from both deregulation
and technology creating infrastructure and
reduced per minute or per connection cost
3
Moore’s Law continues to drop cost and
increase speed of computing
Source: Intel.com
1965: prediction that the number of
transistors on a chip will double about
every two years
Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge
4
Kuyper’s Law:
Storage Cost Continues to Plummet
Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge
5
Bandwidth Continues to Decline in Cost,
Increase in Speed and Capacity
Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge
6
Internet is Reaching the Last Third of
U.S. users, Mostly Over 65
Sources: Deloitte Center for the Edge, Pew
7
US Mobile Has Reached Saturation;
Internet/4G to Keep Growing
8
9
Technology: Changing Rules
Expectations Funds
Content
Time
10
4 costs have transformed content
creation, transport, and playback
Cost of digital distribution and inventory
Costs of transit and storage
Costs of creation and tools
Costs (and rewards) have increased to
integrate, e.g., Google, Facebook,
Vevo, YouTube, Twitter, etc.
11
Resulting Power Shifters
and New Limits
o Extensive computing power in the home and
inexpensive storage -- heading to Cloud Computing
o In most countries, broadband in expansion or late
adopter stage
o Battery/power being “solved”
o Compression (continuing) to be “solved”
o Heat (heat?)/energy use
o Tools for inexpensive creation
12
Media technologies connect
“Where” and “When”
Time
Space
Connections
•
•
•
•
•
Time of Capture
Place of Capture
Rules of
Capture/Editing/
Context
•
13
Time of Consumption
Place of
Consumption
Metaphors/rules of
consumption
Progressive Media Have Re-sliced
Time and Place for Consumers
Time
Shifting
Multiple
Uses
Multiple
Media
Examples
Location
Concerts, theater,
sporting events
1 – live venue – None
out of home
1
Initially, none
Movies in theater
1 – shifted – out Yes –
of home
venue’s
choice
1 for user;
multiple for
theater
None
Records
Many –
moveable
Yes – user’s Many
choice
None (45 vs LP)
Television
1 – shifted – in
home
Yes –
channel’s
choice
1 for user;
multiple by
contract for
station
None
Radio
1 – shifted – in
home
Yes –
channel’s
choice
1
1
14
Time and Place Shifted to the
Home and Onward
15
New Media Cracked Open Time and Place
Permanently
Examples
Location
Time
Shifting
Rental, Home Video
1 – shifted, in- Yes
(1984 Betamax ruling) home
Multiple
Uses
Multiple
Media
Yes
No
CD; cassettes; DVD;
books, newspapers
Many –
shifted –
users’ choice
Yes
Yes
Not until recently
DVRs (digital video
recorders, like TiVo)
Where the
device is
Yes
Yes
Progressively
(e.g., Slingbox)
Digital files – mp3,
epub, jpg, html, avi,
mpeg2, mpeg4, etc.
Many
Yes
Yes
Yes – crashed
into time- and
place-based
contracts
…so will we ever need to purchase another copy of
a library media? DATA is now the driver.
16
Digital Connection Drivers are Reconnecting
Time and Place with Data
Technologies of Connection
• Metadata to the frame
• Recording relationship with user
• Recording relationship with distribution
• Influencing relationships with filter and relationship with other
media objects
• Allowing connection with other media objects
17
Time: Sliced and Diced with Data
Data now measures
and guides connection
between consumer use
and advertiser
measurement of time
18
Data Driving New Business Models
• Licensing and new syndications
• Razor/blade – cross-subsidy
• Paying for virtual goods or relationship
• Versioning/”Freemium” (free or inexpensive versions to promote and
for various media)
• Selling data and behavior (like advertising)
• New “Windows” – new slicing economic rent by
timeframe and technology limits
• “Library” – selling different time/place values for paid-for content
19
New Filters + New Abundance Drive New
Creative Industry Structures
Abundant
Creation
Creative Community
Source: Caves, Creative Industries, 2000
Variable Inputs + Uncertain Outputs =
Excess Production and Capacity
20
Gartner’s Hype Cycles: New Models Push in
with Inflated Expectations
21
Gartner Hype Positions Shifted:
2009-2011 Editions
22
New Powers: Alliances, Keystones, and
New Aggregators
23
Interwoven Networks of
Influence are Changing
24
Bulk of Internet Users: Asia and Europe
25
Global Shifts to Connected Participation
Source: Universal McCann Wave4 7/09
26
Citizen journalism
unleashed whole
new realms of
participation,
politics, and
recommendations
27
Wireless: 3G projected to strongly penetrate before
2016, behind Europe and Japan
28
Expanding our External Brains:
New Expectations
29
Consumer decision points are changing to
“right now”
. . . and instant data is now available for that
decision influencing moment
30
Shifting Powers: Information,
Recommendation, and/or Relevance
Techmeme: Social
graph vs. Interest
graph – The Age of
Relevance
31
Data Recrafts Assumptions Around Territory and
Contracts
Local: Collecting local audiences for local advertising,
local media content, and geo-contracted structures of
national content and ads….
Search-based local advertising: restructuring
hyperlocal market…release of mechanical “need” for
local content distribution over time (including
education? Newspapers?)
New business combinations? Local creation? Local
social tools/conversations?
32
Data "Flow": Newer Need for two-way
Infrastructures
• 2-way information on music, books, digital publishing,
connected media
• Distribution to dozens or hundreds of distribution
points in different formats
• Need to realign internal company processes –
reinvent the pipes of the corporation – to maximize
these assets
– Not just digital workflow – digital decision-making
33
Music as a Small-File Canary:
What Happened?
Source: RIAA figures; Digital Music News
http://infographicchart.posterous.com/chart-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry
34
Digital Now: Singles On Demand
Changing Tides of US Music Sales
Source: RIAA figures; Digital Music News
35
http://infographicchart.posterous.com/chart-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry
New Ecosystems Building to Integrate with
Re-Aggregators
New tools for
artists to
connect
through the
reaggregators
(e.g., Root
Music)
New data
tools for
“filters” to
understand
the market
(e.g., Next Big
Sound)
New
relationshipdriven content
exchange
marketplaces
(e.g., Spotify,
MOG,
Cloudsound)
New
influencers
(individuals,
specialty
reviewers)
Advertisers: Catching and Driving Change
Source: Blackstone
37
TV: Tipping into Data, Relational, and
Social?
Source: Silicon Valley Insider
Shifting Viewing Trends
39
TV: What and Where?
Source: XBox
Dr. Gigi Johnson, Executive Director
Maremel Institute
Education Programs in
Media and Cultural Change
@maremel
626-603-2420
www.maremel.com