Transcript Trends in Computer Architectures

Trends in Computer
Architectures
Prof. Rudy Lauwereins
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
2
Contents
• General Purpose Processors (GPP) and
high end Digital Signal Processors (DSP)
• Micro-controllers and
low end Digital Signal Processors
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
3
Contents
• General Purpose Processors (GPP) and
high end Digital Signal Processors (DSP)
 Processor performance
 Memory density
 Power consumption
 Design issues
 Fabrication cost
• Micro-controllers and
low end Digital Signal Processors
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
4
Contents
• General Purpose Processors (GPP) and
high end Digital Signal Processors (DSP)
 Processor performance
 Memory density
 Power consumption
 Design issues
 Fabrication cost
• Micro-controllers and
low end Digital Signal Processors
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
Processor performance
Performance
1M
100K
10K
55%/year
1K
100
10
1
Time
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Exponential growth for 3 decades!
This is called ‘Moore’s law’: number of transistors
doubles every 18 months
5
(Gordon Moore, founder Intel Corp.)
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Processor performance
SIA Roadmap
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
6
Roadmap 1998
Roadmap 1995
Line width (nm)
Number of TOR
On chip global
clock freq.
(MHz)
1995
350
6M
300
1997
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1998
250
11M
375
2001
180
21M
1200
2004
130
76M
1600
2007 2010
100
70
200M 520M
2000 2500
50
1.4G
3000
35
3.6G
3674
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Processor performance
• Smaller line size
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
7
 More transistors => parallelism
 1983: 1 instruction per 4 clock cycles
 2001: 8 instructions per clock cycle
 Smaller capacitors => faster
 1983: 4 MHz
 2001: 1300 MHz
 Speed-up: 10000
• Enables new applications
 UMTS with large rolled-up OLED screen
enabling web downloadable services (e.g.
virtual meetings)
• Do we find applications that are
demanding enough for next decade’s
processors?
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
8
Contents
• General Purpose Processors (GPP) and
high end Digital Signal Processors (DSP)
 Processor performance
 Memory density
 Power consumption
 Design issues
 Fabrication cost
• Micro-controllers and
low end Digital Signal Processors
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
9
Memory density
Performance
1M
Processor
100K
10K
55%/year
1K
Gap
100
Memory
10
10%/year
1
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Again: exponential growth for 3 decades, but …
Time
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Memory density
SIA Roadmap
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
10
1997
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1995
64M
1998
256M
2001
1G
2004
4G
2007
16G
2010
64G
256G
1T
190
280
400
560
790
1120
1580
2240
Roadmap 1998
Roadmap 1995
Number of bits
per chip
Chip size (mm2)
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Memory density
• Memory gap
General
Purpose
processor
 Design of processor architectures completely
driven by memory bottleneck
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
11
8088
• 1983
• 16-bit processor
• 8-bit external
memory bus
• no on-chip
memory
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Memory density
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
12
Pentium 3
• 1999, 32-bit processor, 64-bit external bus
• 256 Kbyte L2 & 32 Kbyte L1
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Memory density
• Skills: center of gravity
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
13
 USA: processors (Intel, Motorola, TI, …)
 Japan: memory (NEC, Toshiba, …)
 Future: IC = processor + memory
Where???
• Memory density grows faster than needs
 1983: 512 Kbyte @ 64 Kbit/chip = 64 chips/PC
 2001: 256 Mbyte @ 512 Mbit/chip = 4 chips/PC
 Compensated if you sell at least 16 times more
PCs…
 … or if you find new applications (UMTS, car,…)
 2010: 4 Gbyte @ 64 Gbit/chip = 0.5 chip/PC
 No need for such a large memory chip…
 … unless you find new applications (3D video…)
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
14
Contents
• General Purpose Processors (GPP) and
high end Digital Signal Processors (DSP)
 Processor performance
 Memory density
 Power consumption
 Design issues
 Fabrication cost
• Micro-controllers and
low end Digital Signal Processors
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Power consumption
Power (W/cm2)
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
1K
Nuclear reactor
100
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
Hot plate
10
386
486
1
1.5m
1m
P
0.7m
P II
P III
P4
P Pro
0.5m
0.35m 0.25m 0.18m 0.13m
0.1m Line
width
Processor architecture design driven by memory bottleneck
& power problem!
Nevertheless, ‘cooling tower’ is necessary!
15
© Fred Pollack, Keynote at Micro99
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
16
Power consumption
Cooling “tower”
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Power consumption
• Let us do a calculation:
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
17
 How long could a GSM using a Pentium 3
(hardly powerful enough…) last on a single
battery charge?
 Capacity of a battery:
600 mAh @ 4V = 2400 mWh
 Power consumption Pentium 3: 45 W
 One charge lasts for … 3 minutes!!!
• Let us turn the computation upside down:
 We want a GSM to last for 240 hours on a single
charge. How much power may be consumed by
the processor?
 Capacity of a battery:
600 mAh @ 4V = 2400 mWh
 Power consumption processor: 10 mW
 Possible via specialization to the application:
dedicated hardware…
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
18
Summary on technological trends
• Technologically speaking, we can have
the same exponential evolution for
another decade
• This gives us at least 4 decades of
exponential evolution, never seen in
history
• End-user price stayed the same or even
decreased
 Since 30 years, the price for a brand new
processor is 1000 USD
• So far for the good news…
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
19
Contents
• General Purpose Processors (GPP) and
high end Digital Signal Processors (DSP)
 Processor performance
 Memory density
 Power consumption
 Design issues
 Fabrication cost
• Micro-controllers and
low end Digital Signal Processors
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
Design issues
Design
complexity
Performance
1M
100K
10K
55%/year
1K
100
Gap
Design
productivity
10%/year
Time
10
1
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Unfortunately, Gordon Moore’s law is also valid for the
design complexity, which doubles every 18 months…
… and worse, design productivity doubles only every
10 years
20
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
21
Design issues
• We can build exponentially complex circuits, but
we cannot design them
 Design of Pentium 4: 8 years, during last 2 years
with a team of 1000 persons
 Who can afford this???
• Hence, number of designs is decreasing
 To get a reasonable return-on-investment, the
number of pieces sold of a single design should
increase (>10M pieces/year)
 The ASIC business model (specialized chip for every
application) will disappear and hence also those
companies…
 New model: System-on-Programmable-Chip (SoPC)
 Volume production of only a few different types of
highly complicated flexible HW/SW chips
 Specialization to specific application after production:
statically configurable
 …or even after deployment: dynamically re-configurable
(good for interactive web-enabled services)
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Design issues
Standardization
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Standard
Discretes
(NAND)
'57
'67
Custom LSIs
for TVs,
Calculators
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
22
'77
Customization
Memories
Microprocessors
Field
Programmability
'97
'87
'07
ASICs
Standardized in
Manufacturing
but
Customized in
Application
© Dr. Tsugio Makimoto, Hitachi
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Design issues
Standardization
Processor
performance
Memory
density
'97
Field
Programmability
Fabrication
cost
'17
Automated
SoPC
Power
consumption
Design
issues
'07
Customization
Micro
controllers
23
© Dr. Tsugio Makimoto, Hitachi
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Design issues
• Business model:
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
24
 Universities come with a brilliant idea to speedup a tiny step in the design flow
 Spin-offs make that tool robust and market it…
 …but they burn more money for development
and marketing than they can ever gain by
selling the tool to the very small market (150
seats worldwide)
 When the tool is successful, large Electronic
Design Automation (EDA) companies acquire
the spin-off and integrate the tool in their
design flow (Mentor Graphics, Cadence,
Synopsys; all USA based…)
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
25
Contents
• General Purpose Processors (GPP) and
high end Digital Signal Processors (DSP)
 Processor performance
 Memory density
 Power consumption
 Design issues
 Fabrication cost
• Micro-controllers and
low end Digital Signal Processors
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Fabrication cost
Cost
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
Factory
Performance
1M
Processor
100K
10K
55%/year
1K
100
Memory
10
10%/year
1
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
What curve does the cost to build the silicon foundry
factory follow?
Unfortunately, cost doubles every 18 months!!
26
Time
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Fabrication cost
• Moore’s law also valid for foundry cost
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
27
 Number of companies that can afford to build a
new foundry for smaller line widths decreases
 E.g. Alcatel Microelectronics stops at .35mm
 Even large companies have to establish joint
ventures
 E.g. Philips, Siemens, SGS-Thomson for DRAM fab
• The technological future for CMOS
technology is brilliant…
• Economical factors are likely to put the
exponential growth to a stop…
• Unless we develop a technology that is
cheaper to fabricate (self-assembling biochips????)
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Fabrication cost
• Business model:
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
28
 Only big companies and joint ventures survive
 USA: (Processors) IBM & HP, Intel, Texas
Instruments, …
 Europe: (Consumer electronics) Philips, SGSThomson, Infineon, …
 Taiwan: (Silicon foundries) UMC, TSMC
 Japan: (Memory) NEC, Matsushita, …
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
29
Contents
• General Purpose Processors (GPP) and
high end Digital Signal Processors (DSP)
Micro-controllers and
low end Digital Signal Processors
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
30
Micro-controllers
• Micro-controllers are used in embedded
systems
• To explain what an embedded system is,
first an analogy:
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Micro-controllers
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
31
Phase 1: the electric factory
- One central large electric motor
- Power was distributed to the workplaces via axes
and belts
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Micro-controllers
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
32
Phase 2: the home electric motor
- Every home got its private electric motor
- A whole suite of appliances could be plugged into
this single motor
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
33
Micro-controllers
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Micro-controllers
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
34
Phase 3: ubiquitous electric motor
- The electric motor is embedded in the appliance
- You often are not aware of the fact that it contains
an electric motor (e.g. 60 electric motors in a modern
high end car)
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Micro-controllers
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
35
Phase 1: the computing factory
- One central large mainframe computer
- Compute power was distributed to the workplace
terminals via 9600 bps telephone wires
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Micro-controllers
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
36
Phase 2: the personal computer at home
- Every home got its private computer
- A whole suite of add-ons can be plugged into
this single computer
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Micro-controllers
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
37
Phase 3: ubiquitous computing
- The micro-controller is embedded in the appliance
- You often are not aware of the fact that it contains
a micro-controller (e.g. 70 micro-controllers in a modern
high end car: engine control, ABS, airbag, airco, interior
illumination, central lock, alarm, radio, ...)
©
R.Lauwereins
KULeuven’2001
Micro-controllers
• General purpose processors
General
Purpose
processor
Processor
performance
Memory
density
Power
consumption
Design
issues
Fabrication
cost
Micro
controllers
38
 Maximum performance technologically feasible
at any cost
 New component (every 18 months) completely
replaces old component
• Micro-controllers for embedded systems
 Minimum cost to reach barely the preformance
requirements
 Component specialized for the application
 Should be available during the whole life cycle
of the product it is embedded in (15-20 years…)
 Hence: no start-up company can be trusted…
 Start-ups however offer IP (Intellectual
Property) blocks, i.e. the building bricks for the
complete circuits to reduce the design gap