Transcript Drilling for Understanding

Drilling for Understanding
Visual Simulation and the Energy Business
Presented by
Ben Delaney
President, CyberEdge
Information Services, Inc.
19 March 2002
Madrid, Spain
Since the
early 20th
century,
geophysicists
have
struggled to
open the door
to knowledge
of the inner
Earth.
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Geology
www.cyberedge.com
Today, We Easily See
Through Layers of Geology
Schlumberger GeoQuest
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Visualization Plus Simulation
Make This Insight Possible
Visualization + Simulation = Visual
Simulation, VizSim
• The VizSim Marketplace
• VizSim in the Energy Business
• Technologies to Watch
• Implementing VizSim Successfully
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Seismic Exploration: the
Geologic X-Ray
Large-scale, highly
In
the 1920s,
interactive,
collaborative,
seismic
simulation-based,
exploration
real-time,
showed
its value.
3D graphics
AKA…
The way we do it
today.
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Images courtesy Society of Exploration Geophysicists
Schlumberger DrillViz
www.cyberedge.com
Why VizSim?
Early adopters explain
“Immersion allows me to see the patterns
in the rocks. [Before we built the Vision
Center] we would throw away 90% of the
data that may have cost us $14 million to
collect.”
“Missing something is one of the most
costly mistakes you can make. This provides
a way to not miss much. Also it’s faster – you
can see things much faster.”
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
A Little Background
• CEIS founded in 1990 to provide
news and info on Virtual Reality
• Published CyberEdge Journal
1991-1997
• Providing consultation and
proprietary research to leading
international companies
• Annual study launched in 1997 :
The Market for Visual
Simulation/Virtual Reality Systems
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
The Market for
Visual Simulation/Virtual
Reality Systems
• Looks at all types of systems
• 4th in series started in 1997
•
•
•
•
46 Questions
203 respondents, from five continents
>117,000 data points
Confidence level: 95% at ±5.9%.
• 191 Page Report in four sections
•
•
•
•
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Finance
Demographics
Technology
Opportunity Index™ and
Recommendations
www.cyberedge.com
Key Findings
Entire Population
• Value of VizSim/VR industry
(2001): $22.3 billion
• Average system cost: $92,000
• Systems (of all types) sold in
2000: 203,000
• Organizations Involved: 8,500
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
5 Top Commercial Applications
(Organizations/VizSim Developers)
1: Virtual prototyping – 377/8,349
2: Museum and other Exhibitions – 338/7,486
3: Design evaluation – 298/6,599
4: Data visualization for research – 285/6,311
5: Architecture – 278 /6,156
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Systems Sales Trend
Systems (Universe)
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
N America C/S America
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Europe
Asia/OC/Au
www.cyberedge.com
Sy
st
Sy
ste
ms
em
s '9
9
Sy
ste
ms
‘00
‘01
Energy Industry Highlights
from
The Market for
Visual Simulation/Virtual Reality
Systems, 4th Edition
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Energy Industry Display Usage
50.0%
Percent of Systems
40.0%
30.0%
General
20.0%
Energy
10.0%
0.0%
Desktop
Desktop Large screen
monitor,
monitor,
monoscopic stereoscopic
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
CAVE or Head-mounted Spatialized Haptic/force
Dome
display
(3D) audio
feedback
www.cyberedge.com
VizSim System Prices Vary Widely
Energy Industry Average: $111,000
282
300
Value ($000)
250
243
200
138
150
100
92
166
90
50
11
40
0
High Price
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Av g. Price
24
Low Price
www.cyberedge.com
No
rth
Am
Eu
rop
eric
e
a
As
ia/O
c /A
us t
rl
Increasing VizSim Usage
VizSim Systems Sales: 2000-2001
Total sales of
VizSim systems
in 2001: about
2,100 units.
1500
1250
1,335
1000
750
500
Change over
2000: 51.5%
587
911
188
250
329
0
North America
Europe
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Syste
ms, ‘ 0
1
153
Asia/Oc/Austr
Syste
ms, 2
K
www.cyberedge.com
Providing These Benefits
• Fewer dry holes
• Increased and improved
collaboration
• Integration of VizSim centers
with enterprise IT assets
• Better planning – linking ops
in field, office, and distribution
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Technologies That Will Change
How Viz Centers Are Used
• Computing/Communications
• Image Generators
• Display Systems
• Robotics
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Computing & Communications
•Moore’s Law continues to hold true – chip
densities double every 18 months
•PDA-like system will have super-computer
capabilities.
•Computers are not just not just processors,
but communications/collaboration facilitators
•Distributed processing power — Grid
Computing
•Access to images, simulation, knowledge,
from anywhere, anytime, any format
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Integrated Com/Comm
Provides
• Computing becomes ubiquitous
• Virtually every electronic device will incorporate processors
• Sensors will become much
more common and capable
• Widespread, broadband
communications links myriads
of devices
• Every aspect of E&P operations
will be linked, with data
available in real time
• Simulation becomes integral to
many apps
• Fuzzy logic provides better
insight and control
• AI techniques will be used to
learn and predict
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Baker Jardine’s PipeSim 2000
www.cyberedge.com
Image Generators Improve
• Moore’s Law has been kind to Graphics
manufacturers, too
Item
ASIC (gates per chip)
Microprocessors (transistors per chip)
Micron
Number of package pins
On chip frequency (MHz)
Off chip Frequency (MHz)
Voltage
Cost/transistor
1995
5M
12M
0.35
750
300
150
3.30
1.00
1998
14M
25M
0.25
1,100
450
200
2.50
0.50
2001
26M
64M
0.l8
1,700
600
300
1.80
0.20
2004
50M
150M
0.13
2,200
800
250
1.50
0.10
2007
210M
350M
0.10
3,000
1,000
500
1.20
0.05
Semiconductor Industry Assoc.
• COTS components are gaining acceptance
• Clusters of low-cost systems provide supercomputing power
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Big Displays Facilitate
Collaboration
CAVE-like
displays, walls,
and desks enable
collaboration by
any size team
Barco’s I-Space display provides total
immersion for several people.
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Display Resolution and
Versatility Increase
• Ganging multiple
displays
• Very high resolution
discreet displays
ActiveMural at Argonne National
Laboratory. Current resolution is
4,920 x 2,204 pixels, with fifteen
XGA projectors.
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
The Personal Giant Display
• Room-size displays
aren’t the only way
• Demand from various
sectors is driving down
HMD prices
• Better optics will
provide wide FOV in
100 gm packages
• The goal: 4,000 x 4,000
pixels on .5” screen
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Deayang’s Cy-visor provides an image equivalent to a
44” TV from a 7’ distance.
www.cyberedge.com
Robotics
• Smaller
• Microscopic probes
• Abler
• More agile
• Carrying multiple
sensors
• Wireless
communicaitons
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Miniature robot vehicle developed at
Sandia National Laboratory, 1999
www.cyberedge.com
The most important thing to know
about future technologies:
Advances in Technology
Can Come from Anywhere
• Medical
• Military
• Entertainment
• Space Exploration
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Energy Industry Trend
Increased reliance on VizSim
•E & P
• Management
• Training
• Prototyping
• Failure analysis
Courtesy of Veritas and Polish Oil & Gas
Company
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Implementing VizSim
Successfully
• Take your time – Do your homework
• Talk to everyone involved
• Get management on your side
• Listen to your clients
• Work with experienced partners
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Assessing Large-Screen Displays
Please rank your agreement with each of the following
statements in regard to large-screen displays (CAVE, Wall,
Desk, Theater).
Avg. Rating
Usually provides expected results.
3.88
Is well supported by manufacturer.
3.77
Is easy to use in everyday situations.
3.72
Is fast enough.
3.69
Seldom breaks or malfunctions.
3.67
Provides good value.
3.61
Provides adequate performance.
3.56
Has few useless features.
3.54
Has good warranty support.
3.53
Is well supported by manufacturer's software.
3.51
Is well supported by third-party software.
3.50
Has all needed features.
3.48
Supporting software is easy to install.
3.47
Is understood by my customers
3.45
Is easy to program.
3.22
Is well documented.
3.14
Is reasonably priced.
3.05
Is easy to install physically.
3.01
Average
Responses
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
3.49
19
www.cyberedge.com
Energy sector.
Ranked on scale of
1 (worst) to 5 (best).
11 vendors rated.
Rating Entire VizSim Systems
Please rank your agreement with each of the following
statements in regard to VizSim/VR systems in general.
Avg. Rating
Provides good value.
3.39
Usually provides expected results.
3.36
Provides adequate performance.
3.30
Has few useless features.
3.15
Has good warranty support.
3.06
Is well supported by manufacturer.
3.03
Supporting software is easy to install.
3.00
Are easy to install physically.
2.91
Seldom breaks or malfunctions.
2.76
Is well documented.
2.76
Is well supported by manufacturer's software.
2.75
Is understood by my customers
2.67
Is fast enough.
2.58
Are easy to program.
2.55
Is well supported by third-party software.
2.45
Is reasonably priced.
2.45
Is easy to use in everyday situations.
2.45
Has all the features needed.
2.33
Average
Responses
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
2.83
33
www.cyberedge.com
Energy Sector.
Ranked on scale of
1 (worst) to 5 (best).
Vendors Rated
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Hardware Satisfaction Ratings
Company
Rating Resp
nVidia
4.63
16
SONY
4.33
9
Intel
4.22
9
SensAble Tech
4.17
6
TAN
4.17
6
SGI
4.00
19
Trimension
4.00
5
Barco
3.93
14
Logitech
3.91
11
AMD
3.90
10
Software Satisfaction Ratings
Rating Resp
nVidia
4.63
16
Matlab
4.14
7
Discreet
4.00
9
Rhinocerous
4.00
4
TerraVista
4.00
2
MPI
3.88
8
Alias|Wavefront 3.85
13
SGI
3.85
13
Barco
3.83
6
PTC
3.83
6
Service Satisfaction Ratings
Rating Resp
TAN
4.20
5
nvidia
4.09
11
PTC
3.80
5
Intel
3.75
4
SUN
3.75
4
Ascension
3.69
13
Parallel Graphics 3.67
3
SensAble Tech
3.67
3
Viewpoint
3.67
3
Vivid
3.67
3
Overall Satisfaction
Rating
nVidia
4.49
TAN
4.19
n-Vision
4.01
Matlab
3.97
SensAble Tech
3.97
SGI
3.86
PTC
3.84
Intense 3D
3.82
Trimension
3.80
blaxxun
3.80
Template Graphics3.00
TerraVista
3.00
Virtual Presense 3.00
Virtus
3.00
xTensory
3.00
Cybernet Sys
2.75
EON Reality
2.67
Virtue 3D
2.67
Superscape
2.50
Genl. Reality/iReality
2.25
Stereographics
Virtus
VRex
xTensory
Immersion
Matrox
SonicBlue
Virtue 3D
Superscape
Realax
Stereographics 3.00
Virtue 3D
3.00
Virtus
3.00
VRex
3.00
Immersion
2.75
i-O Display
2.75
Genl. Reality/iReality
2.67
MuSE
2.67
xTensory
2.67
Superscape
2.50
Ratheon
Spacetec
Virtus
MuSE
Etheral Tech
xTensory
Virtue 3D
Happ systems
Realax
Superscape
2
2
2
2
2
4
3
3
4
4
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
2.80
2.75
2.67
2.67
2.50
2.20
4
2
3
3
5
4
3
3
4
5
Energy sector.
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
6
2
2
3
4
4
3
3
3
4
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
2.85
2.75
2.67
2.67
2.56
2.32
Successful VizSim Centers Are
Based on These 5 Assumptions
1: It’s a complex environment that
requires careful planning.
2: The users’ needs dictate system design.
3: Be sure your vendor is a trusted,
knowledgeable partner.
4: IT will need help so that they can help.
5: Payback needs to be assessed
realistically.
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Successful VizSim Managers
Anticipate and Plan for:
•
•
•
•
•
Communications
Operations
Maintenance
Upgrades
Emergencies
They Experiment and Learn
And they deliver big benefits from
VizSim investments!
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com
Thanks to:
Schlumberger
YOU
To request a free copy of the
Executive Summary
[email protected]
© 2002 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
www.cyberedge.com