Transcript SCIENCE

NATURAL AND SOCIETAL-INDUCED HAZARDS,
EMERGENCIES AND RISKS: THE NEED FOR
KNOWLEDGE CROSS LINKAGES
Juan Carlos Castilla
Universidad Catolica de Chile &
Hassan II Academy of Science and Technology
of Morocco
RABAT, MOROCCO
February, 2016
Natural and Societal – Induced Environmental Hazards, Emergences, Risks
State Responsibility (GOVERMENT)
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UNDER CHILE HOME OFFICE MINISTER
Expertise and full cover of territory
Continuous accumulation of experiences
Retrieving and actualization information
Local socio-ecological knowledge (LS-EK)
Preparedness , anticipation, policies
SUPPORTING SERVICES:
National Meteorological Office
National Earthquake Office (Univ. of Chile)
National Tsunami Office (Navy)
National Geological Service (volcanoes ,other)
Other
TOP-DOWN
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ONEMI: OFICINA NACIONAL
DE EMERGENGIAS DEL
MINISTRIO DEL INTERIOR
Basic Research
SUPPORTING & ASSOCIATED RESEARCH
Yes
Basic Research
Bohr´s Quadrat
Mission Oriented
Research
Pasteur´s Quadrat
BOTTOM-UP
Strategic Research
No
Edison´s Quadrat
No
Yes
Apply / Oriented Research
Natural and Societal – Induced Environmental Hazards, Emergences, Risks
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UNDER CHILE HOME OFFICE MINISTER
Expertise and full cover of territory
Continuous accumulation of experiences
Retrieving and actualization information
Local socio-ecological knowledge (LS-EK)
Preparedness , anticipation, policies
SUPPORTING SERVICES:
National Meteorological Office
National Earthquake Office (Univ. of Chile)
National Tsunami Office (Navy)
National Geological Service (volcanoes ,other)
Other
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USUALLY ABSENT
Mission Oriented Research (CENTERS, UNIVERS.)
Interdisciplinary teams with focus on specific research
areas: e.g. National Research Center for Integrated
Management of Natural Disasters (CIGIDEN). e.g. Center
for Climate Change and Resilience (CO2). LS-EK
Strategic Research (CENTERS, UNIVERSITIES)
Full oriented to apply science and technology to approach
or solve very specific environmental problems (hazard, risk
evaluation & preparedness for emergencies). e.g. Risk
assessments. LS-EK
Basic Research (MAINLY UNIVERSITIES)
Individual or grouped research addressing basic questions,
hypotheses, etc. e.g. Under the climate change predicted
by IPCC-2014 the upwelling system should increased in the
southern part of the country. LS-EK.
MOST NEEDED – MOST USUALLY ABSENT
State Responsibility (Governance)
21st CENTURY SCIENCE CHALLENGES
NORMAL (INTRA-MURAL)
SCIENCE
Relatively long-term
, Knowledge
Post-Normal Science:
Intra- Mural &
Democratic. LS-EK
Governance:
Knowledge,
Policy, Law,
Action, LS-EK,
other
(see Castilla, JC. 2015. Frontiers
in Science and Engineer, Morocco)
Modified from: Perspective Uncertainty as Information:
Narrowing the Science-policy Gap. G. A. Bradshaw and Jeffrey
G. Borchers Conservation Ecology 4(1):7.
[online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol4/iss1/art7/
Natural and Societal – Induced Environmental Hazards, Emergences, Risks
State Responsibility (Governance)
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UNDER CHILE HOME OFFICE MINISTER
Expertise and full cover of territory
Continuous accumulation of experiences
Retrieving and actualization information
Local socio-ecological knowledge (LS-EK)
Preparedness , anticipation, policies
SUPPORTING SERVICES:
National Meteorological Office
National Earthquake Office (Univ. of Chile)
National Tsunami Office (Navy)
National Geological Service (volcanoes ,other)
Other
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SCIENCE & SOCIETY
Post-Normal Science and
Disaster Risk:
INTEGRATION OF
Knowledge + Uncertainty +
Values + Plurality
GOVERNANCE
Goverment
Science and
Technology
Academies
Pasteur Quadrat
Mission Oriented
Science
An example for Chile
The Nazca and South American Tectonic Plates: About 40% of the Plate
tectonic accumulated energy in the world is liberated along Chile !
P
A
C
Nazca Plate
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F 8 cm per year
C
Deep Pacific
Ocean Trench
(> 8000 m)
Andes
Mountains
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E
Therefore: Earthquakes, Tsunami & Volcanos are
(or should be) natural hazards priorities in Chile
8 cm per year
S. American
Plate
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
1. NORMAL “GOOD” SCIENCE (“the before”)
Interseismic strain accumulation measured by GPS
in the seismic gap between Constitución and
Concepción in Chile
J.C. Ruegg, A. Rudloff , C. Vigny, R. Madariaga, J.B. de
Chabalier, J. Campos, E. Kausel, S. Barrientos, D.
Dimitrov. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors
(2009). 175: 78–85
2009
2. NORMAL “GOOD” SCIENCE (“the after”)
Central Chile Finally Breaks
Raul Madariaga, Marianne Métois, Christophe Vigny,
Jaime Campos.
SCIENCE Vol. 328 9 APRIL 2010
27 February 2010
(8.8 MW: fifth instrumentally
largest recorded earthquake)
SOME EFFECTS OF THE 27-F (2010)
uplifts of 2-3 meters!
26 April, 2010, low tide.
Earthqueake magnitude 8.8 followed by tsunami (2 major waves)
Tubul Bridge
Initial deformation
27-F: Tsunami
Propagation
Sismic
fault section
3
Initial propagation
33º
2
1
A
A
Constitución
2
Arrival first wave
Juan Fernández
Archipelago
700 km
1 Concepción
38º
Vaccum generation and
Arrival of second wave
3
Continental
platform width
27-F Tsunami:
Small-scale fishers: “The monster came from de
north…about 4 hours after the quake” (= LS-EK)
North
Let us see the contribution of “Good Modern Science” in this area
2009
MORE EXAMPLES OF NORMAL SCIENCE OUTPUTS: GEOLOGY & RELATED
BIOLOGY, ECOLOGY AND SOCIO-ECOLOGY
SCIENCE OF SCIENCE
Frontiers in Science and Engineers- vol. 5 (1). 2015. In press
Revisiting the Pasteur Quadrant, Post-normal Science and Strategies for
Research on Natural Hazards and Disasters
JC Castilla
Frontiers in Science and Engineers- vol. 5 (1). 2015. In press
Natural and Societal-induced Environmental Hazards: Integrated
Intersdisciplinary Long-term Research Strategy for Developing Countries
JC Castilla
But….In the Chilean case for the pre & post 27-F earthquake/tsunami the “arrow culture
or knowledge crossed linkages” had totally failed: Here is a lesson to be learnt !!
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UNDER CHILE HOME OFFICE MINISTER
Expertise and full cover of territory
Continuous accumulation of experiences
Retrieving and actualization information
Local socio-ecological knowledge (LS-EK)
Preparedness , anticipation, policies
SUPPORTING SERVICES:
National Meteorological Office
National Earthquake Office (Univ. of Chile)
National Tsunami Office (Navy)
National Geological Service (volcanoes ,other)
Other
O
N
E
M
I
USUALLY ABSENT
Mission Oriented Research (Centers, Univ.)
Interdisciplinary teams with focus on specific research
areas: e.g. National Research Center for Integrated
Management of Natural Disasters (CIGIDEN). e.g. Center
for Climate Change and Resilience (CO2). LS-EK
Strategic Research ( Centers, Univ.)
Full oriented to apply science and technology to approach
or solve very specific environmental problems (hazard, risk
evaluation & preparedness for emergencies). e.g. Risk
assessments. LS-EK
Basic Research (Mainly in Universities)
Individual or grouped research addressing basic questions,
hypotheses, etc. e.g. Under the climate change predicted
by IPCC-2014 the upwelling system should increased in the
southern part of the country. LS-EK
MOST NEEDED – USUALLY ABSENT
State Responsibility (Governance)
Take home messages:
Countries need to incorporate Science Plans for Integrated Basic and
Applied Research on Disaster Risk/Natural Catastrophes, following a
Post-Normal (democratic) Science approach
1. Combining natural, health, social and engineering sciences, under
uncertainty, value loading and plurality is an essential need
2. Engaging society via information and the incorporation of Local
Socio-Ecological Knowledge is critical
3. Long term planning and engaging scientists ,policy makers and the
government is crucial
4. Main aim must be to improve knowledge and New Governance
schemes for the sake of people.
5. The so called “knowledge arrow connectivity culture “ is a main
challenge pose both in the academy as well as in government
institutions. We need to develop better (more democratic) governance
schemes
MANY THANKS - GRACIAS - FOR THE
INVITATION