Transcript Critical Thinking and Science, Part 1

Foundations of
Research
1
Introduction to critical thinking and science
Part 1.
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© Dr. David J. McKirnan, 2014
The University of Illinois Chicago
[email protected]
Do not use or reproduce without
permission
Cranach, Tree of Knowledge [of Good and Evil] (1472)
Foundations of
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Core components of science
What is science?
Values
An approach to
understanding.
What makes an idea
or a statement about
the world
“scientific”?
We will think about
three elements of a
scientific approach:
Content
Methods
Facts & findings
“Rules” for collecting
evidence
Foundations of
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Core components of science
What is science?
Values:
Science combines Critical thought with
Empiricism
 We strive to understand the Natural World
Personal
Statements
Many
If
Critical
nothing
scientific
thinking
values
else,
about
ais
 The core purpose is Theory: how do natural
ultimate
studies
scientific
the
underlie
coredescribe
purposes
the
of
statement
a
processes work?
or grounded
the
is
scientific
integrity
meaning
world,
of
orbut
science
are
inthe
beliefs,
bottom
observable
empirical
as
a whole.
line
not
attitude.
is
facts
to or  Theory development rests on Evidence: What
scientific facts.
understand
findings.
how
empirical findings support your hypothesis.
things work.
 Scientific thinking is Skeptical: “how do you
know that?”, “is that logically coherent…”.
 Scientific Integrity demands honest reporting
and interpretation of empirical findings.
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Core components of science
What is science?
Values:
Critical thought + Empiricism
Classification systems or
taxonomies
Basic
Of course,
theories
–the
e.g.,
–core
learning
diagnoses,
of
personality
theory,
science
evolution
is “types”,
factually
– are
genus and
species
well
describing
enough
– are
the
established
important
natural elements
ofworld.
to
represent
scientific description.
“facts”.
Content
 Empirical findings: Facts
 Ways of classifying nature
 Well supported theories
Objective,
Measurement
empirical
or direct
data
collection
observation
methods
– e.g.,
are
tracking
Experiments
designed
disease
are
to overcome
rates
often –the
is
personal
one
“gold
biases
major
standard”
and
stream
error.
of
scientific research.
Methods
 Objective approaches
 Measurement & observational
studies
 Experiments
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What will we address in this module?
Values
We will use this frame work for
these introductory modules:
Part I will address the Values
component ….
How we understand.
Content
Methods
Facts & findings
“Rules” of evidence

We mostly talk about Critical
Thinking…
Active


Skeptical;


Part II will introduce Content
and Methods.
Critically evaluate explanations.
Creative

We will use a critical thinking
perspective to understand the
basic process of scientific (or
empirical…) thought.
Actively explain the world.
Develop alternative explanations.
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Core components of science
What
is science?
Science
and empiricism are about explaining
things … events in the
world.
Values:

Criticalsomething?
thought + Empiricism
How do we explain

What makes a good or bad explanation?

 Understand the Natural World
 Theory: How or Why?
How do we determine
an explanation
 Evidence:ifHow
do you know? is ‘valid’ or
meaningful?
Content
Methods
 Objective approaches
 Empirical findings: Facts
 Being clear about how we explain
is called
 Basicthings
experimental
design
 Ways of classifying nature
how research
we think.
Critical Thought; thinking about
 Specific
procedures
 Well supported theories
 Science is public
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Emotions and critical thinking
Let’s begin with an exploration of why or how
critical thinking may be important.
Why is our culture so partisan?
Why does it seem that Liberals and Conservatives
cannot see eye-to-eye on anything?
Read two short articles:
Shutterstock
Click for CivilPolitics.org: Fight Club Politics,
a history of partisanship in U.S. politics.
First, by Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times;
liberals and conservatives may differ in core
emotional dispositions.
Second, by Lane Wallace in The Atlantic; our partisan impasse will only
be solved by critical thinking; discussing emotions is a distraction.
Think critically:
How strongly does each author make his point?
What evidence or logic did (did not!) convince you of the authors’ points.
Foundations of
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Critical thinking
Values:
Critical thought + Empiricism
do you
that?
Core How
question
for know
critical
thought:
 What is the question?
•
What actually needs explaining?
•
Does this explanation really fit the question?
 What assumptions are you making?
•
Are you making assumptions you are not aware of…
•
…that may not be appropriate.
 What empirical evidence is there?
•
How do you know if the evidence is valid and reliable?
 Does your explanation make sense?
•
Is it logically coherent?
•
Does it jibe with what we already know about the world?
 What other explanation or interpretation makes more sense?
•
What is the most simple way to explain this?
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 What is the question; What needs explaining?
Sometimes the stated question is not what the explanation is
actually addressing…
 This is from a critical thinking (?) quiz.
 ‘d’ is given as the correct answer.
Look at it for a minute and
 How does it show sloppy thought?
try to figure it out…
Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for the
rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere?
a.
A hole in the ozone layer.
b.
Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests.
c.
The carbon dioxide from utility power plants.
d.
The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents
in our earth's crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 What is the question; What needs explaining?
Sometimes the stated question is not what the explanation is
actually addressing…
 This is from a critical thinking (?) quiz.
 ‘d’ is given as the correct answer.
Click through to see
 How does it show sloppy thought?
what is going on here:
Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for the
rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere??
a.
A hole in the ozone layer.
b.
Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests.
c.
The carbon dioxide from utility power plants.
d.
The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents
in our earth's crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
19. Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for
the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere??
(There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively
about this issue.)
a. A hole in the ozone layer.
b. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests.
c. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants.
d. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's
crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust.
Not correct.
The loss of ozone increases ultraviolet light,
which is harmful but does not affect climate
change.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
19. Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for
the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere??
(There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively
about this issue.)
a. A hole in the ozone layer.
b. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests.
c. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants.
d. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's
crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust.
Both of these are important sources of C02 increase.
The question designer considered both to be false (not
the major source…).
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
19. Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for
the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere??
(There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively
about this issue.)
a. A hole in the ozone layer.
b. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests.
c. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants.
d. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's
crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust.
This item is scored as being correct.
See if you can figure out why it is not.
Does the answer actually address the question?
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
19. Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for
the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere??
(There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively
about this issue.)
a. A hole in the ozone layer.
b. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests.
c. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants.
d. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's
crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust.
The answer tells us where C02 comes from at all – volcanoes etc.
However, the question does not ask about where C02, comes from
generally....
If you read closely you can see it asks about the rise in C02.
Since these general causes of C02 have been stable since the
industrial revolution, they cannot account for a rise in C02.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
Another frame for these options is:
• Why is there climate on the
planet at all,
vs.
• Why is the planet’s climate
changing.
By giving a correct answer to the
wrong question…
..the writer steers us away from recognizing empirical evidence
 C02 levels have been rising substantially since the late 19th century,
coincident with the industrial revolution.
 Global temperatures have tracked perfectly with increasing C02.
 Theories of Global warming are strongly supported by both temperature
observations* and counts of extreme weather events.
*including ocean temperatures
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
Another frame for these options is:
• Why is there climate on the
planet at all,
vs.
• Why is the planet’s climate
changing.
By giving a correct answer to the
wrong question…
..the writer steers us away from recognizing empirical evidence
...and distracts us from more substantive questions.
 How do we precisely gauge human contribution to C02 increase?
 How do air temperature increases relate to ocean temperature?
 Are climate change theories predicative as well as descriptive?
Foundations of
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What is the question; What needs explaining?
 There are lots of examples of explanations that do not actually
address the questions.
 From a recent radio show where people call in their answers to
common questions:
Why does my cat suddenly show up and hang
around when I am sitting on the toilet?
➔ The questioner wanted to know why cats hang around
cats like to lay on bathroom floor tile.
Answer
specifically
: atBecause
that time.
Of
course not.
Question:
➔ The answer explained why cats may generally be in the
 Whatbathroom
is the caller
really asking?
(particularly
on a hot day), not why they magically
when actually
you are explain
sitting on
the toilet…
 Doesappear
this answer
that?
Being
on what the question actually is may seem
 Click
forclear
the answer.
obvious, but can take some thought to get right…
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Foundations of
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
How do you know that?
 What is the question?
 What assumptions are you making?
 What empirical evidence is there?
 Does it make sense?
 What other explanation or interpretation makes more
sense?
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 What is the question?
 What assumptions are you making
Assumptions often critically affect the inferences we make.
Imagine a
situation…
A man is
lying in the
gutter
What Inference might
you make about it?
That man is a
vagrant.
That man
needs help.
Example taken from The Critical Thinking
Community.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 What is the question?
 What assumptions are you making
Assumptions often critically affect the inferences we make.
Imagine a
situation…
A man is
lying in the
gutter
What assumptions
underlie your inference?
 Only bums lie in
gutters.
 People are wholly
responsible for their
fate.
 He is getting what he
deserves…
Note how the inference is based on both a simple assumption and
larger social values or ideology.
What Inference might
you make about it?
That man is a
vagrant.
That man
needs help.
Foundations of
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 What is the question?
 What assumptions are you making
Assumptions often critically affect the inferences we make.
Imagine a
situation…
A man is
lying in the
gutter
What happens when you
change your assumption?
 Anybody in the gutter
is in need of help.
 People suffer from
personal or social
problems that they
cannot control.
 No one deserves…
Note how the inference changes with a different social values or
ideology…
What Inference might
you make about it?
That man is a
vagrant.
That man
needs help.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 How do you know that?
 What assumptions are you making
 What empirical evidence is there?
 As people we have built-in difficulties being objective…
• We all have a confirmatory bias;

We are most sensitive to “facts” that support our assumptions
(hypotheses…).

This self-serving bias can make us cherry pick only certain kinds
of information.
• We are swayed by the emotional salience of information

We are particularly sensitive to information, assumptions, or
conclusions that make us feel better or in control of our world.
• Critical thinking – science – demands that we overcome these
sources of bias.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 How do you know that?
No, global warming is not a myth just
 What assumptions are you making
because it was cold last winter…
 What empirical evidence is there?
 To think Critically we must strive to minimize our personal or
ideological biases;
• Evidence must not depend upon who is collecting it.
“You can have your own opinions, but you
 Critical thinking demands honesty.
cannot have your own facts”.
• We must be willing to “go with the data”; accept when our
assumptions are contradicted by evidence.
• Ignoring the larger context and citing self-serving “facts” is
invariably misleading.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 How do you know that?
 logically
What assumptions
are youcauses
making
In a
coherent explanation
and effects are independent
and
potentially
be falsifiable.
 What
empirical
evidence is there?
In circular
reasoning
you assume a certain cause only by
 • Does
it make
sense?
observing an effect; you do not assess them independently.



“All behavior is due to an external, learned stimulus.”
“But how do we know when an important stimulus is present?”
“We see behavior occurring, so there must be an important
stimulus…”



“All adult neuroses are due to problems in childrearing.”
“Wait, this patient reports a fine childhood, but is crazy as a loon.”
“Clearly your patient is in denial about her problem childhood…”
• These causes “explain” the outcomes only if we already
believe the theory!
• They do not actually test or support the theory.
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 Does it make sense?
In a logically coherent explanation causes and effects are independent
and potentially be falsifiable.
• In circular reasoning you assume a certain cause only by observing
an effect; you do not assess them independently.
• In a “No True Scotsman” –type fallacy an explanation cannot be
found false;

No true Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge.

“Wait, I am an Scotsman and I put sugar in my porridge!”

“Well, clearly you are not a true Scotsman…”

“No one who truly understands Christianity could reject it.”
• These statements cannot be proved false; any counterinformation is dismissed as not “real”.
• You are either not a true Scotsman…
• …or do not understand Christianity…
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
 Does it make sense?
These and many of the fallacies show the danger of taking
statements – even (ostensibly) empirical statements at face
value.
Clear thinking comes only from care and work!
Of course a core value underlying Science and critical
thought generally is honesty.
Despite structures to monitor the integrity of
evidence, personal integrity on the part of
researchers is still crucial.
We will spend time on this when we get to Research
Ethics.
Image: Shutterstock
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Critical thinking; How do you know that?
How do you know that?
 What is the real question?
 What assumptions are you making
 What empirical evidence is there?
 Does it make sense?
 What other explanation or interpretation may make
more sense?
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Critical thinking
 What other explanation or interpretation may make
more sense?
Many of our explanations – including scientific hypotheses – may
have equally plausible alternative explanations.
This is particularly the case with correlational findings.
•
During the recent recession economists found a strong correlation
Marco Rubio
between the U.S. budget deficit and unemployment.
•
Some politicians took this to mean that to lessen unemployment we
must first lower the deficit, since deficits cause unemployment.
•
What alternative explanation of the finding can you imagine?
•
Perhaps unemployment and deficits are not causally related.
•
Perhaps unemployment leads to deficits, rather than the other
way around.
 Lower tax revenues;

More unemployment compensation...
• As you can imagine, people with different political agendas seized
on one or the other of these interpretations…
Click to read a discussion in
the Daily Kos.
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Critical thinking
 What other explanation or interpretation may make
more sense?
Many of our explanations of things – including scientific hypotheses –
may have equally plausible alternative explanations.
It is always important to ask “…what else may be going on
here…?”
Take a critical thinking quiz here.
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Critical thinking
 How do you know that:
 What assumptions are you making?
 What empirical
evidence
is there?
So, how
do we think
critically?
 Does it make sense?
What does that look like?
 What other explanation or interpretation may make
more sense? Critical thinking is…
Foundations of
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

What is critical thinking?
Click for cool critical
thinking site.
Active


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Seek (new & diverse) information rather than passively
accepting an existing or traditional conclusion.
Skeptical;
(Not simply doubting everything; click the
image for a discussion.)

Suspend belief until there is evidence

Make judgments about whether something…

Is plausible & rational

Is supported by evidence
Shutterstock

Be clear on the limitations of your and others’ knowledge

Be prepared to change in the face of new evidence or theory
Creative

Develop and consider alternative explanations or
interpretations

Imagine different ways to evaluate or test a claim
Foundations of
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Examples
of critical
thinking.
Examples
of critical thinking.
Critical thinking is important every approach to knowledge
Science
Math
Humanities
Health fields
Critically analyzing results of experiments in light of the
quality of the data and existing theories.
Selecting and evaluating strategies for modeling a
problem.
Putting literature and art into their historical context;
critically analyzing the meaning of a work.
Evaluating symptom patterns to make decisions in
clinical settings.
Criminal justice
Weighting evidence to reach decisions about guilt
and responsibility.
Politics, debate
Honestly analyzing others’ points of view, basing
arguments on evidence and logic.
Examples in this section adapted from:
http://www.spcollege.edu/criticalthinking/documents/Critical_thinking_examples.ppt.
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Foundations of
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Examples of critical thinking.
We engage in critical thinking all the time…
How concerned should I be about crime?
Should I just
stay home?
Is this plane ticket really cheaper?
How much should I believe this news story?
Where did I hear it – what biases
do they have?
Do celebrity “dietary cleansings” really help?
Is she angry at me? …or just in a bad mood?
What real evidence is there?
Did I do something wrong?
What are my real chances of winning the lottery?
How do I figure out of s/he is a good match for me?
Which phone company plan is best?
Adapted from: http://www.spcollege.edu/criticalthinking/documents/Critical_thinking_examples.ppt.
Images: Shutterstock.com
Foundations of
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Examples of critical thinking.
We engage in critical thinking all
time in
day-to-day
life:by:
Wethe
answer
these
questions
 Collecting & critically evaluating
How concerned should I be about crime?
evidence
Is this plane ticket really cheaper?
 Framing it in terms of what we
already know about the world
How much should I believe this news story?
 Forming a logical conclusion.
Do “The Secret” or diet cleansing reallyThis
help?is critical thought in action!
Emotions – T Mobile has the coolest ads –
distracts from clearly evaluating our options.
Is she angry at me?
The more we hone our critical thinking
What are my real chances of winning the
lottery?
skills…
– the more we think about how
we are thinking –
How do I figure out of s/he is a good match for me?
Which phone company plan is best?
..the better we are at navigating the
world.
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Critical Thought and Free Speech
35
Critically evaluate two arguments:
Click the image for a New York Times article on
free speech and license plates.
The case involves states allowing or
disallowing certain vanity license plates: The
Confederate flag vs. an abortion rights
message.
 Should both be allowed?
Shutterstock
How do you know that:
 Neither?

 One but not the other?
What assumptions are you
making?

What empirical evidence is there?

Does it make sense?

What other explanation may make
more sense?
Take a position – not necessarily
the author’s! – and use your list of
critical thought questions to defend it.
Write a sentence or two for each
thought question.
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Critical thinking & Science

How do the foundations of critical thought map on to
scientific discovery?

Here is one model of the scientific process:
Phenomenon
Theory
What is it?
How do I think
it works?
Hypothesis
What do I predict,
based on my theory?
Methods
What evidence will
test my hypothesis?
Foundations of
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
Critical thinking & Science
One model of the scientific process:
Phenomenon
How or why are
particular people
attracted to each
other?
We begin by stating a general
question;
• What do we not understand about
some important part of the world?
• What needs further explanation?
• What gaps are there in our
knowledge?
• What new idea or concept do I
want to explore?
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Foundations of
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
Critical thinking & Science
38
One model of the scientific process:
Phenomenon
Theory
Attraction may be
enhanced by cultural
similarity.
Attraction may be
mediated by antigenic
complementarity.*
How can we best explain the
phenomenon?
• What coherent or logical principles
might underlie what we observe?
• What well understood physical,
social or psychological processes
can explain how or why this works?
• What principles can I adopt from a
completely different field to better
explain this phenomenon?
*Evolution has favored offspring of mates with
complementary features of their immune systems, which
are detectible in sweat.
Foundations of
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
Critical thinking & Science
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One model of the scientific process:
I predict that when I present
research participants with:
more / less
attractive people
Phenomenon
who are more / less culturally
similar
Cultural similarity
will be more
Theory
important than attractiveness.
Hypothesis
What concrete and specific
prediction about the world flows
from – and tests – our theory?
• If I manipulate certain conditions in
an experiment, what measurable
outcome do I expect?
• If I am observing nature – say, in
paleontology or archeology, or
historical or literary research – what
patterns or relationships do I
expect?
Foundations of
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
Critical thinking & Science
40
One model of the scientific process:
I predict that when I present
female research participants
with t-shirts
worn by men with
Phenomenon
…more / less antigenic
complementarity…
Complementarity
will generally
Theory
predict attraction.
Hypothesis
What concrete and specific
prediction about the world flows
from – and tests – our theory?
• If I manipulate certain conditions in
an experiment, what measurable
outcome do I expect?
• If I am observing nature – say, in
paleontology or archeology, or
historical or literary research – what
patterns or relationships do I
expect?
Foundations of
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
Critical thinking & Science
41
One model of the scientific process:
How do I structure my lab
Phenomenon
experiment
so that the conditions
are
 plausible & realistic, but
 still controlled enough to
Theory
clearly test
my hypothesis…
Hypothesis
Methods
What empirical evidence will test
the hypothesis?
• What must I measure or observe to
determine whether or not the
hypothesis is supported?
• How do I assure that the evidence
is unbiased and objective?
o Could anyone repeat my study
and get the same results?
o Are my observations well
understood or standard in my
field?
Psychology 242
Introduction
to Research
Critical thinking in science
Values:
Critical thought + Empiricism
As critical thought, scientific process is:
Active;
• Actively seek new or better
Phenomenon
Theory
Hypothesis
Methods / Data
42
explanations…
Skeptical;
• Theories must be coherent and logical
• New evidence can always overturn our
theories or beliefs.
• Hypotheses must be specific enough
to be tested.
• Without valid empirical evidence all
beliefs are tentative.
Creative;
• Every stage benefits from innovation.
Foundations of
Research
Go on to Part 2
after a break.
Summary; Introduction, part 1
43
SUMMARY
 In this module be have begun our
exploration of the core elements of
empirical or scientific thought…
 We began by asking
some critical thought
questions;
How do you know that?
 What assumptions are you making?
 What empirical evidence is there?
 Does it make sense?
 Are there alternate explanations?
 To address these
questions critical
thought must be…
Phenomenon
Theory
Hypothesis
Methods
Active;
• We seek new or better explanations
Skeptical;
• Theories must be coherent and logical
• Hypotheses must be specific enough to be tested.
• New evidence can always overturn our theories.
Creative;
• Innovation helps develop and evaluate ideas.
 These values underlie the
basic research process…