Transcript Sustainability and Buildings

Defining “Sustainability”
Danny Harvey
Department of Geography
University of Toronto
Four Principles of Sustainability (HOK
Guidebook to Sustainable Design)
• Substances from the Earth’s crust must not
systematically increase in the ecosphere
• Substances produced by society (man-made
materials) must not systematically increase in the
ecosphere
• The productivity and diversity of nature must not
be systematically diminished
• There must be fair and efficient use of resources to
meet human needs (basic needs for all take
precedence over providing luxuries for the few)
I would add a 5th and 6th principle of
sustainability:
• Human energy needs must be met entirely from
renewable energy sources, without degrading the
longterm capacity of nature to supply energy
renewably
• The local rate of consumption of freshwater must
not exceed the rate at which freshwater is supplied
through the hydrological cycle in excess of
ecological needs
There are both resource and
environmental constraints on
sustainability
• Resource constraints – resources eventually
become prohibitively expensive
• Environmental constraints – environmental
consequences undermine basic life-support
systems or create societal instabilities
Yearly Global Mean Temperature Changes, 1856-2004,
and 5-year running mean
Temperature Change (oC)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1855
1880
1905
1930
Year
1955
1980
2005
1.0
Directly Observed
0.5
o
Deviation ( C)
Proxy Indicators, 20-year moving
average
0.0
-0.5
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
1800
2000
Global or NH Temperature Variation, 1000-2100
5.0
o
Deviation ( C)
4.0
Observed
High Model Projection
3.0
2.0
Low Model Projection
Mann et al (1999) NH Proxy, 20year moving average
1.0
0.0
-1.0
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
1800
2000
2200
Stabilization of Climate at (hopefully) noncatastrophic levels (CO2 peaking at 450 ppmv), and
Sustainable Development (requiring, among other
things, a Sustainable Energy System (one based on
Renewable energy)) are Flip Sides of the Same Coin
(there is no conflict between the too):
Both require completely phasing out the use of fossil
fuels (the former before 2100 AD).
The longterm per capita energy use
consistent with sustainability depends on
the human population. For populations
peaking at 8-9 billion, per capita energy
use in OECD countries needs to fall by
at least a factor of 4 (and renewable
sources of energy rapidly ramped up)
Carbon Emission (Gt C yr-1)
20
Coal
16
Oil
12
Natural Gas
750
8
650
550
4
0
2000
450
350
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Required Carbon-Free Power (TW)
Trade-off between amounts of carbon-free power required at various times in the future and the rate of
reduction in energy intensity required for stabilization at 450 ppmv CO2
20
2050
Global Primary Power
Supply in 2000 (13.3 TW)
15
10
2025
5
0
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Rate of Energy Intensity Decline (%/yr)
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
Energy and the New Reality:
Facing up to Climatic Change
Island Press, Washington
Late 2008 Publication
A Sourcebook on Low-Energy
Buildings and District Energy
Systems: Fundamentals, Techniques,
and Examples
James & James / Earthscan (London)
Published July 2006