Transcript File - Vagabond Geology

Senior University Fall 2008
The Phantom Science
Session 6
The Fat Lady Sings
The Rise & Fall(?) of the West
Set Your Watch on Mountain Time
Early Humans
Early to Class, that is.
It’s a No, No when there’s a camera
“History is so indifferently rich that a case
for almost an conclusion from it can be
made by a selection of instances”
Will and Ariel Durant, “The Lessons of History”
Never get to Class Early
Now back to business
Remember the diamonds in Arkansas?
Crater of Diamonds State Park
Arkansas
Diamonds
Diamonds
Geologic Map USA
Diamond
Volcano
Diamonds
Diamonds
Texas
Volcanics
No Diamonds
Diamonds
No Diamonds
Now for Session 6
Remember from Last Week
At the close of the 1700’s
Natural Philosophy (geology) was in
harmony with the Western Ecclesiastical,
Political, & Economic Power Structure
of the Time!
Where we are in World History
THIS HARMONY WOULD NOT LAST LONG!!
Remember from Last Week
The Great
Nations
and
Empires
ran
on
Then, it was the
Their access to Iron and Coal
Internal Combustion Engine
Iron & Coal provided tools & Weapons
Now
Great
Nations
Transportation: by Foot or “Horse”
onwith
Oilthe invention
Everythingrun
changes
of the Steam Engine
Only the USA and Russia have
NowDOMESTIC
Coal is truly
KING!
large
Oil reserves
Civilizations Time Lines 1700 TO 2008
The Principal Players
Our focus today:
1. Europe & USA:
th
19
&
th
20
Centuries
Essential Natural Resources Now
Oil
Iron and Coal
Foot & “Horse”
Coal or Nuclear
Electric
Steam Internal Combustion
Engine Motor
Our focus today:
1. Europe & USA:
th
19
&
th
20
Centuries
If you’ve First:
got it flaunt it
Europe
&
the
USA
in
2. Phantom Science comes Center Stage
th
th
19
&
20
Centuries
You ain’t seen nothing yet!
Background st
3. USA, Russia, & China: 21 Century
Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting
The World 1500 – 1800 AD
The Rush for the Resources of the New World
Next: the Struggle in Europe
Europe and the
Eastern Hemisphere
Conflicts for Iron & Coal
19th & 20th centuries
Oil
Oil for Engines
20th century
Wars & Concessions to Reallocate and
Augment the Natural Resources of Europe
The Scramble for Oil: 20th Century
USA
48 states
Lacked Oil
Middle East
USA, Shell Saudi Arabia
France, Britain, Shell,USA
Iraq ,Iran, etc
Energy in the USA Today
USA: Only country
USA Venezuela
in the world
with abundant,
USA Libya
Indonesia
Oil DEVELOPED
joins Iron and Coal as USA
essential
Iron,
Coal, & OilWorld Class Nation
to being
Supply of all US Energy
by Source
Uses of all Petroleum
Daily Oil Production Worldwide(?)
Daily Oil Production
USA ‘50 – ‘08
30 mm b/d
Worldwide Oil & Gas reserves
Estimated 2030 (dbeau)
Now: The Phantom Science
takes Center Stage!
Geologic
Maps
General
Geology
Mining
James Hutton:
Rock
Sequences
Father of Modern Geology
Europe
th
19 Century Pioneers
of the Science of Geology
Round Earth 250 BC to 1492 AD
Sun center of our universe
1000
500
0
Greece
500
1000
1500
2000
Rome
James Hutton:
Father of Modern Geology
James Hutton: (1726-1797)
Scottish gentleman farmer & physician
“The past history of our globe must be
explained by what can be seen to be
happening now”
Geology’s Most
Famous Rock
Outcrop:
Siccar Point:
Eastern Scotland
on the North Sea
What did Hutton learn here?
James Hutton: (1726-1797)
1. Rise & Fall of sea level = erosion & deposition
2. Subterranean heat =
1. volcanoes & lavas
2. Veins of metal ores,
3. Uplifts (mountains)
4. rock folding, and faults
James Hutton: Scottish gentleman farmer
Complex Sequence of Geological Events
Can you figure out the geologic history
of this rock outcrop?
Charles Lyell: Geological Pioneer
7.
1. Documented James Hutton’s work
2. Defined5.“Uniformitarianism”
5.
8.
4.
6.
3.
1. 2.
Round Earth 250 BC to 1492 AD
Sun center of our universe
1000
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Crusades
Greece
Rome
Charles Lyell: “Principles of Geology”, 1830
Hutton’s Geology & “Uniformitarianism”
Sir Charles Lyell, British Geology Compiler
Principles of Geology, 1830
William “Strata” Smith:
Pioneer Geologic Map Maker
Uniformitarianism:
Today’s Processes and rates of change
define the past
Round Earth 250 BC to 1492 AD
Sun center of our universe
1000
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Crusades
Greece
Rome
William “Strata” Smith: English Surveyor
Father of the Geological Map
William “Strata” Smith, English Engineer
Smith created a Geologic Map of England
while surveying construction of Canals
William “Strata” Smith, English Engineer
Used fossils to Identify Rock Layers of the
Same Age and Engineering Significance
William “Strata” Smith’s
Geologic Map of Great Britain
Charles Darwin: “The Origin of Species”
The Book that changed the “world”: 1858
Round Earth 250 BC to 1492 AD
Sun center of our universe
1000
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Crusades
Greece
Rome
Charles Darwin: “The Origin of Species”
The Book that changed the “world”: 1858
Christianity
Islam
Charles Darwin (1809-1892)
“Field Biologist and Geologist
Origin of Species: Natural Selection
“The Survival of the Fittest”
Charles Darwin, age 32
Two Hypotheses on the Origin of Species
Continental Drift
Alfred Wegener, 1880Gradual
to 1930
Punctuated
Equilibrium
Niles Eldredge &
Steven Jay Gould, 1972
“Equilibrium”
Alfred Wegener, 1880 to 1930
German Meteorologist
Continental Drift Proposal
290 Million Years Ago
37 Million Years Ago
An Example: North America
Continental Drift:
North America drifts from Africa-South America
And then
Continental Drift:
North America drifts from South America
& Eurasia from Africa from South America
An Example: North America & Texas
Continental Drift
North America through the Ages
Absolute Age Dating:
Continental
Drift
Theory:
The Giant
Step
of the 1950 & 60’s
Embraced in Europe in the 20’s & 30’s
Accepted in USA in the 50’s & 60’s
“How old is our earth?”
1658 Bishop Ussher: 6000 years
1785 James Hutton: 30 to 50 million years
1830 Sir Charles Lyell: 80 million years
Lord Kelvin, 24 to 40 million years
Heat flow
1899 John Joly, 90 million years
(sea salts)
1947 to 1960 Radioactivity,
4.8 BILLION YEARS OLD!!
Future ??????
“Absolute” Age Dating of Rocks
Absolute
Age
Continental Drift
1859 Charles Darwin, Origin of Species
1830 Charles Lyell, Principles of Geology
1815 William Smith, Fossil correlation maps
1788 Hutton, Theory of the Earth
1800
1900
2000
J. Laurence Kulp:
Columbia University Geochemist
-
research in radiometric dating included :Potassium-argon dating[6] [7]
Rubidium-strontium dating [8]
Uranium-lead dating [9]
Carbon-14 [10]
The Currently Accepted Geologic Ages
Geochemistry: Absolute Age Dating
Absolute Age Dating
Measuring the Decay of Radio Active Minerals
Age Dating using Uranium 238
Radioactive Decay of Uranium 238
Method Assumes:
Today’s rate of Decay
is the same as Decay products
it was inthe
theRocks
past under the Oceans
Mapping
End Product
Lead 206
Plate Tectonics:
Deep Sea Rock Cores & Rock Structures
Three American Oceanographic Institutions
Columbia University/Lamont, New York
Woods Hole, Massachusetts
Scripps, San Diego, California
Lamont Geological Observatory, 1949
Maurice Ewing
1906 – 1974
Ocean Surveys:
Bottom Cores
Rock layers & structure (seismic)
Gravity & Magnetic readings
Tracks of Deep Sea Ships collecting
Bottom Cores & Imaging Rocks below Sea Bed
Deep Sea Data: Bases for Plate Tectonics:
The Deformation caused by the
Collision of Continents
Seafloor Rocks & Ocean Crust
Ocean Margin Deformation
And all this lead to the theory of
Plate Tectonics
New Oceanic
Crust
Mountain Building
Plate Tectonics
Collision of Continents
Mountain Building
Collision Ancient Continents
Appalachian Mountains
Mississippian Time
340 million years ago
Mountain Range
due to Plate
Collisions
Scandinavia
England
Crushed & Melted
into mountain range
France
Spain
Plate Tectonic Reconstruction: 340 myp
North America:
Northward Drift during Pennsylvanian Time
Geophysics: Reflection Seismic
Imaging the Earth’s Crust
Mississippian Time
340 million years ago
Pennsylvanian Time
300 million years ago
Texas at equator
Greenland rotating counter clockwise
Geophysics: Subsurface imaging
Geochemistry : Radio age dating
Continental Drift
Stratigraphy : Stratigraphic Column, paleo-geol ogic Maps
Mineralogy: Components of rocks: Microscopes, X-ray diffraction
Petrology: Origin of Rocks
Petrography (classification of rocks): from early times
Geophysical Subsurface Imaging
Crystallography: gem stones: from the beginning of human history to the present
Mining geology: from the beginning of time to the present
1859 Charles Darwin, Origin of Species
1830 Charles Lyell, Principles of Geology
1815 William Smith, Fossil correlation maps
1788 Hutton, Theory of the Earth
1800
1900
2000
Exploring for water, petroleum, and ores
Geophysics: Subsurface Imaging: 1930 -Present
Geophysics: Subsurface Imaging
Possible oil & gas
accumulations
Sea Level
How might subsurface imaging be
used here in Williamson County?
20,000 feet
The Oil & Gas Potential
Williamson County
Oil in Ancient Volcanic & Chalk Rocks
Volcanic Reservoirs in Williamson Co.
79
Example: Thrall Field: Oil in Volcanic Route
Rock
Thrall
Field
Round
Rock
Chapman
Abbott Field
Copland
Field
Volcanic Reservoirs in Williamson Co.
Pilot Knob Volcano
Austin Area, TX
How the Thrall Volcano might have looked
Thrall
Hypothetical
Field: Depleted
Cross Section:
in 1030’s
Thrall
Oil Field
Is there any
oil left
in the ground at
Thrall Field?
Taylor Marl (cap rock)
Thrall Field:
produced 2 million barrels of oil
Est. remaining oil = 8 million barrels
Route 79
Thrall
Oil Field
Feb. 22, 1915
How might we recover some of those
8 million barrels of oil?
Subsurface Imaging
Surface
Target Reservoir Beds
Selecting the Drill Site
Defining the Shape
of the Volcanic Trap
at the Thrall Field
Route 79
Subsurface Image
How might we recover some of those
8 million barrels of oil?
“Horizontal” Drilling looking for Old Oil
Directional
Drill Hole
Surface
Oil
Conventional
Drill Hole
Re-drilling the
Thrall Oil Field
Exploring for New Fields
Surface Drill Site
New Oil in the Thrall Area
Seismic Lines
Thrall Northeast
New Oil in the Thrall Area
Drilling the Prospects
Chapman
Abbott Field
Jan. 18, 1930
Why is this oil activity economical now?
Just do the Math
Seismic Evaluation
Chapman-Abbott Field Area
Just do the Math
Using the early 1950’s as a base line:
Gasoline: $0.30/gallon
Oil: $3.00/barrel
What’s the
situation today?
Investment Profitability:
$500/daily barrel
Base: $0.30/gal; $3.00/bbl; $500/ daily bbl
Today: Adjust for Inflation
Adjusting for Inflation: X 10
Gasoline: $0.30/gal X 10= $3.00/gallon
Oil: $3.00/barrel X10= $30.00/barrel
But why is gas $4.00/gallon
Investment Profitability:
and
oil
over
$100.00/barrel?
$500/daily bbl X 10= $5000/daily bbl
$3.00/gal; $30.00/bbl; $5000/ daily bbl
Today: Adjusting for the
Cost of Finding New Oil
Today
Profitabilities
What
canInvestment
we expect to
pay for gasoline
highoil
as:is depleted and we
as go
theas“old”
must
use
only
“new”
oil?
$15,000 to $25,000/daily barrel
This is 3 to 5 X’s the cost of “old” Oil
$3.00/gal; $30.00/bbl; $5000/ daily bbl
In the
15 years:
How
doesnext
all this
impact
the
rise and$3.00
fall ofX nations?
Gasoline:
3 to 5
Let’s look at the national distribution
$9.00
to
$15.00/gallon
of iron, coal, and oil
Nations having their own
oil, iron, and coal have a huge
Oil:
$90.00over
to $150.00/bbl
advantage
those who
must buy oil, iron, and coal
Major Iron Ore Producing Countries
Note: England, Germany & France
Iron Ore largely depleted
Putin’s Russia:
Substantial Reserves
USA: Iron Ore Reserves
greatly depleted
Let’s look at the worlds leading Nations
their Iron, Coal, Oil in the last 100 years
USA: Iron, Coal, Oil: 1950
The beginning of the Cold War
We had huge, developed domestic
resources of Fe, Coal, and Iron
What about Europe just after WW II
Europe: Iron, Coal, Oil: 1950
Who will have competitive
domestic
Western USSR
st
resources in the 21 century?
Now
England, German, & France
Resources almost depleted!
USA: Iron, Coal, Oil: 2050
Now look at Putin’s Russia
We will be importing almost all
of the Fe, Coal, Oil & Gas we need
This will make it very difficult to
maintain our world leadership
Europe: Iron, Coal, Oil: 2050
Putin’s Russia
And this doesn’t include
Asiatic or Arctic Russia
High Arctic
#1 Area for
New Oil & Gas
Alaska
Russia
#2 Area for
New Oil & Gas
Rivers &
Deltas
Russia
#2 Area for
New Oil & Gas
Possible Arctic Shipping Route
“Melted”
Ice Cap
Various Schemes to divide
the Arctic Ocean
Out to the edge of the continents
Various Schemes to divide
the Arctic Ocean
Centered on the North Pole
Various Schemes to divide
the Arctic Ocean
Canada
Russia
The USA and Western Europe may be,
Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting!
Proportionate to “Land Area”
Russia
Russia:
New Oil & Gas
Rivers &
Deltas
Plus more
than half
of the Arctic!
What can we do?
Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting
What can we do?
Go Electric!
Develop our vast
lignite coal deposits
Our untapped
lignite coal deposits
This Belongs to You
The Fat Lady’s Song:
The Fat Lady’s Song:
Principle Energy: Lignite not Petroleum
Set your watch
Go
Electric:
Transportation
&
Heating
on Mountain Time
Supplemental Energy: Nuclear, Wind, Solar
Maintain Friendly Sources for Iron
Petroleum: Use only Domestic Production
Set Your Watch on
Mountain Time
It’s your choice!
Mohonk Mountain House, New Pultz, NY
A Future Worth Leaving
for our Grandchildren
Coming Next Spring at Senior University
You Want to Invest in Oil & Gas
Exploration & Production?
This is What You Should Know about
Geological Risk & Production Profitability
Thanks for the Memories!!
The Best is Yet to Come!