Transcript L6_Resources - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Earth, Moon and Mars:
How They Work
Professor Michael Wysession
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Washington University, St. Louis, MO
Lecture 6: Earth’s Resources
Every year > 25,000 pounds (11.3 metric tons) of
new non-fuel minerals must be provided for you,
and each person in the US, to make the items that
each of us use every day.
Human History: Stone age, Copper Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age.
7 metals of antiquity: Gold (8000 yra); copper (6200 yra); silver
(6000 yra); lead (5500 yra); tin (3750 yra); iron (3500 yra);
mercury (2750 yra)
Copper – humans use 15.7 million metric tons each year!!
3 billion tons geologically available
< 200 years left ??
Ex/ Bingham copper mine in Utah
Indium (liquid crystal displays in cell phones).
* Now $685/kg
Europium – used for red phospor in color TVs and LCD screens.
* No substitute, though prices > $2000/kg
Platinum – diesel catalytic converters. No good substitute.
Rhodium – removing NOx emissions. No good substitute.
Rare Earth elements like neodymium, samarium, gadolinium,
dysprosium, and praseodymium
* Used for high-performance permanent magnets in
electronics, video games, military devices, disk drives, DVDs.
No good substitutes.
We import 100% of these! (75% from China)
U.S. Imports of Minerals
Estimated Lifetime of some Selected Minerals Assuming 2009
Rates of Consumption (in thousands of metric tons)
(http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/)
Mineral
Annual
Production
Reserves
Arsenic
Bauxite
Cadmium
Chromium
Cobalt
Copper
Gold
Carbon (graphite)
Indium
Iron Ore
Lead
Lithium
Mercury
Nickel
Platinum Group
Rare Earths
Silver
Titanium
Tungsten
Zinc
53.5
201,000
18.8
23,000
62
15,800
2.35
1,130
0.6
2,300,000
3,900
18
1.28
1,430
0.4
124
21.4
5,720
58
11,100
1,070
27,000,000
590
350,000
6,600
540,000
47
71,000
6
160,000,000
79,000
9,900
67
71,000
71
99,000
400
730,000
2,800
200,000
Estimated
Lifetime (yrs)
Resources
20
130
31
15
110
34
20
63
10
70
20
550
52
50
180
800
19
130
48
18
11,000
75,000,000
NA
12,000,000
15,000
3,000,000
NA
800,000
NA
800,000,000
15,000,000
25,500
600
130,000
100
NA
NA
2,000,000
NA
1,900,000
Est. Lifetime
(yrs)
210
370
520
240
190
700
350
3800
1400
470
91
250
350
170
Gold: Peak or Plateau?
Minerals need to be
naturally concentrated
by geologic processes
to be economically
mined. (Of course, this
depends on the $$)
Ex/ gold = 3 parts per
billion (0.0000003%) of
Earth’s crust
1 wedding band = 3000
TONS of crust!
Why is all the
copper along
the western
coast?
Why is there
gold in
California and
Alaska, but not
in Florida?
Mid-Ocean Ridge Thermal Vents
Hydrothermal circulation concentrates certain
minerals and ores.
Important Resource: Water
• Per capita per day
water use, USA
– 100 gallons personal
(2 bathtubs)
– (1000 gallons total)
• Food production
– Pound of rice
• 250-600 gallons
– ¼ pound hamburger
meat
• 3000 gallons
– 1 liter of water
• 27 liters (1 + 26 for
production of bottle!)
• And 1 liter of
gasoline
• And 0.5 kg CO2
• 1/6 – 1/3 world’s population
– Limited clean drinking water
– 3.3 million deaths/yr
• Major rivers don’t make it to
ocean
– Colorado, Rio Grande
• UN: In 2050, 2 - 7 billion human
beings may experience chronic
water shortages
• “If the wars of this (20th) century
were fought over oil, the wars of
the next century will be fought over
water” (Ismail Seregeddin, vice
president, World Bank; 1995)
Human Impacts: Population Growth
World Population: 7,000,131,319 (US Census- Yesterday)
More than doubled during my lifetime.
7% of all humans that have lived are alive today….
Sustainable level?
Future Growth: In Already Stressed “Hot” Regions
Humans - now the single largest geologic force.
US paved land is now the size of state of Georgia.
US developed land is now the size of the state of California.
35% of Exposed Land used to grow/raise food for humans.
ENERGY RESOURCES
Transitioning from Fossil
sources to Renewable
sources.
* May need ALL sources in
the short term
How quickly?
How smoothly?
How much intervention?
>85 % of
energy
sources
are
Fossil
Fuels
>90 % of
energy
sources
Energy
Sources
are
NonRenewable
OIL & NATURAL GAS
Petroleum burial and recovery.
Proven World
Reserves of Oil
(CIA, World
Factbook,
2008)
Total =
1.3+ Trillion
Barrels
Oil Industry
Resources
Estimate:
5 Trillion
Barrels
U.S. uses 20 million barrels/day (25% of World)
(7.3 billion/year)
The World uses 84 million barrels/day
(31 billion/year)
World reserves = ~1400 billion barrels (45 years)
U.S. reserves = 19 billion barrels (2.6 years)
TOTAL U.S. possible reserves and resources (high-end
guess by DOI MMS)? 96 billion barrels (13 years)
Natural Gas
Reserves
World Reserves =
6.3 quadrillion
cubic feet
World Consumption
= 105 trillion cubic
feet/year (60 years)
COAL
World reserves of coal = ~1 trillion metric tons
World use of coal = ~7 billion metric tons/year
World Coal Reserves ~ 1 trillion metric tons
World Coal Production = 7.3 billion metric tons/yr
METHANE GAS
HYDRATES
ICE
Methane
Methane Gas Hydrates:
Methane Gas Hydrates:
Methane gas hydrate forming below a rock overhang at the sea floor on the
Blake Ridge diapir. This image, taken from the DSV Alvin during the NOAAsponsored Deep East cruise in 2001, marked the first discovery of gas hydrate
at the sea floor on the Blake Ridge. Methane bubbling out of the sea floor
below this overhang quickly “freezes,” forming this downward hanging hydrate
deposit, dubbed the "inverted snowcone."
Methane Gas Hydrates:
NUCLEAR
FISSION
Typical reaction
process: bombard
235U with neutrons
(or by bombarding
the more-abundant
238U with neutrons
to produce 239Pu in
a “breeder reactor”)
Uranium Reserves:
World Reserves = 3.5
million tons of uranium
oxide
World Resources = 10
million tons
World Use = 60
thousand tons/yr
Outlook = 150-200
years
BUT….more from
seawater extraction?
Much greater lifetime
with switch to Th232
(breeds to U233)
Total Rate of World Energy Use = 18 Terawatts
 85% is from Fossil Fuels
Total Power from the Sun at Earth’s Surface =
125,000 Terawatts!!
 ~7000x Total Human Energy Use
 1 Hour of Sunlight = 1 Year of Human
Energy Use
SOLAR POWER
Commercial Panels:
12% Efficiency
Experimental Panels:
22% Efficiency
Nanotech Cells:
>40% Efficiency
Direct electric conversion
with several materials
Inexpensive organic
materials now exceed 6%
efficiency
For Large-Scale Production,
Mirrors Easier/Cheaper Than
Panels
Example: Kramer Junction
solar power plants, Mojave
Desert, CA
* 150 MW
WIND POWER
(Altamont Pass, California)
Efficiency increases exponentially with wind speed
Ex/
HYDROELECTRIC POWER
Supplies 20% of
the World’s
Electricity
Some countries
(Canada,
Norway, Austria,
etc.) get most of
their electricity
from hydro
power
Grand Coulee Dam: Columbia River, Washington;
Generates 6.8 GW (largest in U.S.)
Three Gorges
Dam:
World’s Largest
Hydro Power Plant:
22.5 Gwatts
But issues with
regional impacts of
dams
Wave Energy:
Ex/ Pelamis Machine
Tidal Energy
The 240 MW tidal barrage installed at
the Rance Estuary in France
Geothermal
US: 2 GW
Global potential: 100 GW
Great potential as singlefamily winter/summer
house heat pump
HYDROGEN
Not a Source, but a means of Distribution
-- Will be in competition with new battery technology
(Electric Cars)
Percentage Increase
Tesla Roadster
Chevy Volt
* First 40 miles run off batteries.
* Small gas generator extends distance if needed, at >100 mpg
* Plugs into any 120-240VAC outlet
* Uses a 435-lb lithium-ion battery pack (estimated to degrade by
10-30% after 8-10 years)
Future solutions?
HIGH-ALTITUDE WIND POWER
SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER
NUCLEAR FUSION
Helium-3 from Lunar Regolith? (0.01 ppm)
DYSON SPHERE?