Transcript Khachikyan et al

European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2014
Vienna | Austria | 27 April – 02 May 2014
On dependence of seismic activity
on the 11 year variations in solar activity
and/or cosmic rays
Zhumabek Zhantayev, Galina Khachikyan, Nikolay Breusov
Institute of the Ionosphere
National Center of Space Research and Technologies,
Almaty, Kazakhstan, [email protected]
Session SM3.2/NH4.4
Solar variability and earthquake counting rate
as show the data of the global seismological catalog
NEIC, 1973-2011yrs, 182933 events with M≥4.5
The long-term trends in earthquake counting rate and sunspot
numbers are out of phase. In the 11 year solar cycle, the relatively
quiet seismic activity takes place for moderate solar activity, but it
increases at ~10% in solar minimum, and at ~5% in solar maximum
[Khachikyan et al., 2014]
Global Electric Circuit (GEC) - a candidate
for physical mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships
as was suggested by Markson, 1978; Rycroft et al., 2000; Harrison, 2004.
Global Electric Circuit (Bering et al., 1998)
Cosmic ray ionization is a crucial parameter of the
GEC. On average, cosmic rays intensity varies in the 11
year solar cycle in the range of ~10%, that is in
qualitative and quantitative agreement with ~10%
variation of the earthquake counting rate in the 11 year
solar cycle [Khachikyan et al., 2014].
The concept of the Global Electric Circuit explains
the statistical results by the DEMETER satellite
DEMETER: Decrease of natural
VLF (~1.7 kHz) wave intensity
related to 8400 earthquakes
with M=>5.0 within 440 km of
the epicenters [Piša et al., 2012].
Increasing electric current in the fair weather
regions of the Global Electric Circuit due to
increased electrical conductivity of surface
air leads to changing ionosphere parameters
and, thus, the conditions of the VLF radio
waves propagation [Harrison et al. 2010;
Rycroft and Harrison, 2012].
Suggestion 1: If earthquake occurrence is related to GEC operation,
then the areas of earth’s crust destruction could be magnetically
conjugate.
3
Earth’s
surface
Result: The middle ocean ridges located in the
southern hemisphere along the boundary of the
Antarctic tectonic plate are magnetically conjugate
with the areas of junction of continental orogens
and platforms in the northern hemisphere. Close
magnetic conjugacy exists between southern
boundary of the Nazca tectonic plate and northern
boundaries of the Cocos and Caribbean tectonic
plates [Khachikyan et al., 2013].
Suggestion 2: Since a conductivity along geomagnetic force lines (L)
depends on its population, and since the L~2.0 is populated by the
Anomaly Cosmic Rays (ACR), which intensity shows pronounced
dependence on solar variability, occurrence of earthquakes in regions
3 variation in the 11 year solar cycle.
with L~ 2.0 could show pronounced
Earth’s
surface
Result: In 1973-2011 years, there were 20
earthquakes with M≥7.0 in regions with L=2.02.2. All of these events occurred only at the
declining phase of the 11 year solar cycles,
while were absent at the ascending phase
[Khachikyan et al., 2010].
Suggestion 3: Since the penetration of the solar wind energy into the
Earth’s environment is described better in the Geocentric Solar
Magnetosphere (GSM) coordinates, the spatial earthquake statistics
also could be better evident in the GSM coordinate system.
ZGSM
Result: Earthquakes prefer occur then and there,
when and where the geomagnetic Z-component in the
GSM coordinates (ZGSM) reaches large positive value.
Maximal possible magnitude of earthquake depends
linearly on absolute ZGSM value in epicenter in the time
of earthquake occurrence [Khachikyan et al., 2012].
Main Results
1) In the 11 year solar cycle, earthquake counting rate varies in the
range of ~10%, that is in qualitative and quantitative agreement
with the 11 year variation of cosmic rays intensity.
2) In seismic areas penetrated by the geomagnetic force lines L= 2.02.2, which are populated by anomaly cosmic rays, strong (M≥7.0)
earthquake occurrence is modulated by the 11 year solar cycle.
3) Geomagnetic conjugacy exists between certain tectonic structures.
4) At the globe, earthquakes prefer occur then and there, when and
where the geomagnetic Z_GSM components are large and positive.
5) A possible maximal magnitude of earthquake (Mmax) shows
positive linear dependence on absolute Z_GSM value in the
epicenter in time of earthquake occurrence.
In conclusion: Statistical results support idea that earthquake
occurrence is related somehow to the global electric circuit
operation, but much work is required to solve this problem.
References
- Bering E.A., Few A.A., Benbrook J.R. The Global Electric Circuit. Physics Today. 1998, October, pp. 24-30.
- Harrison R.G. The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate. Survey in geophysics. 2004, V. 25,
pp.441-484.
- Harrison, R. G., Aplin, K. and Rycroft, M. Atmospheric electricity coupling between earthquake regions and
the ionosphere. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2010, 72 (5-6), pp.376-381.
- Khachikyan G., Inchin A., and A. Lozbin. Spatial distribution of seismicity: relationships with geomagnetic Zcomponent in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system. International Journal of Geosciences.
2012, V.3, #5, pp. 1084-1088. http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijg
- Khachikyan G.Ya., Zhakupov N.S., N.Zh. Kadyrkhanova. Geomagnetic conjugacy of modern tectonic
structures. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics. 2013, #4 (2), pp.187–195. doi:10.5800/GT2013420097.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5800/GT-2013-4-2-0097
- Khachikjan G., Inchin A., Zhakupov N., Kadyrkhanova N., L. Kaliyeva. Оcurrence of strong earthquakes in
regions with geomagnetic shell L~2.0: relation to the 11 year solar cycle. Proceedings of the 7-th
Kazakhstan-Chinise International Symposium “Earthquake Prediction Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk
Assessment in Central Asia”. 2010, pp. 357-362.
- Khachikyan G.Ya., Sadykova A.B., S. Dzhanabilova. Relationship of frequency of earthquake recurrence
and seismic energy of the Earth with solar activity variations. Izdenis- Graduate School of Kazakhstan. 2014,
# 1 (4), pp. 55-61 (in Russian).
- Markson, R. Solar modulation of atmospheric electrication and possible implications for the Sun-weather
relationship. Nature. 1978, V.273, pp. 103-109.
- Piša D., F. Neˇmec, M. Parrot, O. Santolik. Attenuation of electromagnetic waves at the frequency ~1.7 kHz
in the upper ionosphere observed by the DEMETER satellite in the vicinity of earthquakes. Annals of
geophysics, 2012, 55, 1, doi: 10.4401/ag-5276.
- Rycroft, M.J., S. Israelsson and C. Price. The global atmospheric electric circuit, solar activity and climate
change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2000, V. 62, pp.1563-1576.
- Rycroft, M.J., and G. Harrison. Electromagnetic Atmosphere-Plasma Coupling: The Global Atmospheric
Electric Circuit. Space Science Reviews. 2012, June, V. 168, Issue 1-4, pp 363-384.
Thank you for attention!
Contact information: Galina Khachikyan
Tel. (727) – 380-30-54
e-mail: [email protected]