Transcript Computational Science - Supercomputing Challenge

Mathematical Modeling:
West Nile Virus
Richard Allen and Paula Avery
Glorieta, 2002
Computational Science?
Computational science seeks to gain an
understanding of science through the use
of mathematical models on HP computers.
Computational Science involves teamwork
Computational Science
Complements, but does not replace, theory
and experimentation in scientific research.
Experiment
Computation
Theory
Computational Science
Is often used in place of experiments when
experiments are too large, too expensive,
too dangerous, or too time consuming.
Can be useful in “what if” studies; e.g. to
investigate the use of pathogens (viruses,
bacteria, fungi) to control an insect
population.
Is a modern tool for scientific investigation.
Computational Science Process
Mathematical Model
A mathematical formulation of some process
in order to better understand it and to predict
its future behavior.

The success of a mathematical model depends on
its ease of use and its accuracy of prediction.

There are three simple rules for creating a model.
Unfortunately, nobody knows what they are*.
You can’t “cook book” useful models
Examples
Newton’s second law of motion: F = m*a
Radioactive decay: N(t) = N(0)*e-k*t
Compound interest: P(t) = P(0)(1 + r/n)nt
Bungee cord: m*g*(L + d) = k*d2/2
Golf ball trajectory: x(t) = (v0*cos θ0 )*t;
y(t) = (v0*sin θ0 )*t - 0.5*g*t2
Population growth: Pn = Po + r*Po*(1 – Po/K)
Background: West Nile Virus
Infection Cycle
Background: West Nile Virus
(Culex Tarsila Mosquito)
Background: West Nile Virus
(Culex Tarsila Mosquito)
Background: NM County VBI
Values