Transcript The Mathematics of Life and Death

The Mathematics of Life and Death
Russian Roulette
What is the minimum
you would need to be
paid to take place in a
game of Russian
Roulette with a
million-chamber
revolver?
Drive Safely
 Assume you have bought
a small, new, car for
around RM 40,000
 What is the most
additional money you
would be willing to spend
on safety features to
guarantee halving your
risk of dying in a car crash
in the next year?
Fly Safely
 You have just spent RM 4000 on a
return flight to Europe.
 What is the most additional money
you would be willing to spend to
halve your chance of dying in a plane
crash on that journey?
Your money or your life?
How much is your life
worth?
WRONG ANSWER
 If you answered ‘priceless’ to the previous question you
are wrong
 You have just decided what your life is worth three
times:
 Russian Roulette – multiply your answer by 1,000,000
 Drive Safely – multiply your answer by 100,000
 Fly Safely – multiply your answer by 280,000
Meet the Micromort
‘A one in a million chance of death‘
 Calculated by looking at the number of deaths associated
with various activities
 Over the course of your life, how many micromorts of risk
do you face on an average day?
Some Micromorts…
 http://understandinguncertainty.org/micromorts
Some More Micromorts
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smoking 1.4 cigarettes (cancer, heart disease)[5][unreliable source?]
drinking 0.5 liter of wine (cirrhosis of the liver)[5]
spending 1 hour in a coal mine (black lung disease)[5]
spending 3 hours in a coal mine (accident)[5]
living 2 days in New York or Boston (air pollution)[5]
living 2 months in Denver (cancer from cosmic radiation)[5]
living 2 months with a smoker (cancer, heart disease)[5]
drinking Miami water for 1 year (cancer from chloroform)[5]
living 5 years at the boundary of a nuclear power plant (cancer from radiation)[5]
living 150 years within 20 miles of a nuclear power plant (cancer from radiation)[5]
eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks (cancer from benzopyrene)[5]
eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter (liver cancer from Aflatoxin B)[5]
eating 1000 bananas, (cancer from radioactive 1 kBED of Potassium-40)[citation needed]
travelling 6 minutes by canoe (accident)[5]
travelling 6 miles by motorbike (accident)[6]
travelling 17 miles by walking (accident)[7]
travelling 10 miles[5] (or 20 miles[7]) by bicycle (accident)
travelling 230 miles (370 km) by car (accident)[6] (or 250 miles[7])
travelling 6000 miles (9656 km) by train (accident)[6]
flying 1000 miles (1609 km) by jet (accident)[5]
flying 6000 miles (9656 km) by jet (cancer from cosmic radiation)[5]
receiving one 10mrem chest X-ray in a good hospital (cancer from radiation)[8]
taking 1 ecstasy tablet[6]
Is paying to reduce the number of
micromorts you face the same as
saying your life has a monetary
value?
Does saying that your has a
monetary value devalue it?