Transcript Simulation of the California Electric Power Market

SimCal: Simulation of the
California Electric Power Market
Eileen Lowry
Advisors: Professor Hemmendinger
Professor Schmidt
March 5, 2005
Outline
 Background
 Goals
 Design/Solution
 Results
 Demonstration
 Future Work
Background
 Pre-1996: PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E
 Monopolistic
 Increasing prices
 1996 – 1998: Restructured electricity
market
 Fringe
 Lower prices
 1998 – 2000: Market Power crept back
 Firms withholding supply and/or raising prices
 Prices soared  Rolling blackouts
Personal Goals
Deepen my understanding of
P
microeconomics
 Supply/Demand
 Elasticity
Gain experience from significant
coding, e.g., generics in Java
version 1.5.0, Swing library
Obtain an understanding of the
electric power market
S
D
Q
Project Requirements
Demand does not exceed capacity
Ensure supply and demand
converge within 50 MW for market
clearing quantity
Produce results that rationally
reflect everyday conditions, e.g.,
weather, temperature
Create table and graph of 24 hour
period
Solution: SimCal
Create a model of the existing
California electric power market and
produce results that reflect the
flaws that led to the crisis in
California
Results are driven by user input and
discrete event simulator
Design
Written using Java 5.0
GUI uses Swing library
Supply and Demand files
Loop to find market-clearing price
and quantity
Bottleneck
SimCal GUI
Supply and Demand
Supply
 Forced-outage factor
 Random factor
 Priority Queue
Demand
α – constant
P – price
Q – quantity
 – elasticity (slope)
 Q = e(α - ∙ln(p))
 weather and temperature factor
 Elasticity of customers
Market-clearing price and quantity
 pick a quantity in fringe
 do-while loop {
find price @ quantity in fringe
find demand @ price *
calculate remaining demand for triopoly
calculate quantity in triopoly
if(quantity in triopoly > remaining demand)
lower quantity in fringe
else if (quantity in triopoly < remaining
demand)
raise quantity in fringe
else
quantity in triopoly = remaining
demand
}
Bottleneck
 * Bottleneck does not exist if :
 north supply + south supply =
north demand + south demand
 |north supply – north demand| <= 100 MW
 |south supply – south demand| <= 100 MW
 Else bottleneck exists:
 Split north and south fringe
 Split triopoly – PG&E in North, SCE and SDG&E
in South
 Determine separate price for North and South
Discrete Event Simulator
Events generated based on random
weather and percent changes in the
demand.
User can choose events to occur
daily, weekly, and/or monthly.
Output is a summary of the events
with their appropriate percent
change in demand, new demand,
and weather.
Results
Overall
 Seasonality
 Bottleneck
vs. Historical
 Blackouts  August – November
Future Work
Inclusion of more factors, e.g. line
loss, price of natural gas
Change distribution of triopoly
power
Add years to simulation
Questions?