Transcript 下載講義

第十單元： Determining Optimal Level of Product Availability
Determining Optimal Level of
Product Availability
Optimal Matching of Supply and
Demand (III)
蔣明晃教授
【本著作除另有註明外，採取創用CC「姓名標示
－非商業性－相同方式分享」台灣3.0版授權釋出】
1
Pull Postponement:EX.2
Flickr_kennethkonica
2
Wikipedia
Pull Postponement
► Basic Elements:
》The process steps must be sequenced so that the
less differentiating steps are performed at prior to
the decoupling point.
》After the decoupling point, the process steps can
be performed flexible and fast.
》Accurate order capture for BTO.
 Example: National Bicycle, Benetton.
3
延遲差異化
► 延遲差異化(Postponement Differentiation)之意義
》 此種延遲主要是運用在最終產品的需求未確定時，先
生產一些通用或產品族共通的部分，等到特定的產品
需求確定後再進行生產或製造，以減少不確定性。
4
延遲差異化的做法
► 作業程序的重排序(Resequencing)
》例子: Benetton, postpone dyeing until after
assembled. Cost: 10% more expensive, new
machine purchased and employee retrained.
》例子: US disk drive manufacturing. Insert generic
circuit board into assembly, complete much of the
testing, remove the generic circuit board, and add
customer-specific boards later.
5
延遲差異化的做法
► 產品的共通性(Commonality)
》利用產品線或產品族的重新設計來達成
》例子: Printer manufacturing, redesign the new
and old products to share a common circuit board
and printhead such that final process can be
delayed.
本作品轉載自hp
(http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/A112771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html)，依據著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
6
延遲差異化的做法
► 模組化(Modularity)：
》 模組化產品設計：將功能採模組化，使各個模組能
夠簡易且以較低成本的添加到產品上。例子： HP
Laser Jet
》模組化製程設計：製程應設計盡
量獨立的生產模組，容易因應不
同的要求進行彈性的調整。例子：print-andpigment mixture, Levis jeans
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝
廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著作權法第46、
52、65條合理使用。
7
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體
藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著作權法第
46、52、65條合理使用。
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體
藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著作權法
第46、52、65條合理使用。
延遲差異化的做法
► 標準化(Standardization):
》建立數種顧客所需的標準化產品之選擇.
► 機動敏捷的供應網路(Agile Supply Networks)
》某些網路節點存放基本的產品, 並在收到顧
客訂單時進行客製化的最後作業.
8
Concurrent and Parallel Processing
► Concurrent and parallel processing involves
modifying the manufacturing process so that steps
that were previously performed in a sequence can
be completed at the same time.
》 reduce lead time
》 reduce inventory cost
► A key is the concept of modularity or decoupling
9
延遲差異化施行的考量
► 重新排序或延遲時所需資本投入之考量。
► 重新排序或延遲時所需技術與能力之考量。
► 延遲的結果可能使存貨成本提高。
► 在國際運籌作業中，各進出口國對原物料，零
組件或在製品的關稅考量。
10
Logistics Postponement
► Meaning:
》 Redesign the tasks in the SC so that some of
the customization steps can be performed
downstream closer to the customers.
WIKIPEDIA
11
本作品轉載自CoolCLIPS網站
(http://dir.coolclips.com/Food/Vegeta
bles/Vegetable_groups/bamboo,_woo
dcut_style_vc001509.html), Free 150
pixel Jpeg Image，瀏覽日期
2012/03/16。按著作權法第52、65
條合理使用。
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體
藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著作權法第
46、52、65條合理使用。
Requirements for logistics postponement
► can not lead to quality degradation.
► downstream sites have capability to perform the
task without excessive cost and time.
► potentially to procure the necessary components or
modules for the customization.
► the engineering team is able and willing to design
products and processes to defer the steps effectively.
12
Form Postponement
► Meaning:
》postponement is achieved through the change in
the form of the product structure by standardizing
some of the process steps or components.
► Example: HP Laser Printer.
本作品轉載自hp
(http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/
A1-12771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html)，
依據著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
13
Postponement Enablers
► Products or processes should be modular in
structure.
► Design engineer should be aware of the importance
of SCM to pursuit design for postponement
opportunity.
► Must involve multiple functions or organization in
collaboration.
► Quantify the costs and benefits to determine the best
point for postponement
14
The Value of Postponement
► Improve matching of supply and demand: need to
qualify the benefit with additional cost
► Increase profitability: differentiate after receiving
customer order so that inventories can be reduced
► Valuable for selling a large variety of products with
demand that is independent and comparable in size
15
Value of Postponement: Benetton
◈
For each color
本作品轉載自Benetton Group
(http://www.benettongroup.com/)，依據
著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
》 Mean demand = 1,000; SD = 500
◈
For each garment
》 Sale price = $50
》 Salvage value = $10
》 Production cost using option 1 (thread are dyed and the
garment was knitted) with long lead time = $20
》 Production cost using option 2 (dying was postponed until
after the garment was knitted) = $22
► What is the value of postponement?
16
Value of Postponement: Benetton
► Option 1:
》 CSL* = (p - c) /(p - s) = 30/40 = 0.75
本作品轉載自Benetton Group
(http://www.benettongroup.com/)，依據著作
權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
1,337X4=5348
》 O* = NORMINV(0.75, 1000, 500) = 1,337 units of each color
》 Expected profits from each color = $23,644
23,644X4=94,576
》 Expected overstock for each color = 412
》 Expected understock for each color = 75
》 5348 sweaters are produced, expected profit of $94,576 with
an average of 1,648 sweaters sold on clearance and 300
customers turns away for lack of sweaters
17
Value of Postponement: Benetton
本作品轉載自Benetton Group
(http://www.benettongroup.com/)，依據著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
► Option 2: c = $22 instead of $20
》 CSL* = (p - c) /(p - s) = 28/40 = 0.70
》O*A
.
= NORMINV(0.70, 1000 x 4, 500 x
4 ) = 4,524 units
》 Expected profits = $98,092
》 Expected overstock for each color = 715
》 Expected understock for each color = 190
► Expected profit increases from $94,576 to $98,092
► Expected overstock declines from 1,648 to 715
► Expected understock declines from 300 to 190
18
Value of Postponement with
Dominant Product
本作品轉載自Benetton Group
(http://www.benettongroup.com/)，依據
著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
► Color with dominant demand (red): Mean = 3,100,
SD = 800
► Other three colors: Mean = 300, SD = 200
► Option 1:
》 CSL* = 0.75
》 Optimal production of red sweaters O* = NORMINV(0.75,
3100, 800) = 3,640; expected profit = $82,831, expected
overstock = 659, expected understock = 119
》 Optimal production of each other color sweater = 435;
expected profit = $6,458, expected overstock = 165,
expected
understock = 30
3640+4,35X3=4,945
$82,831 + $6,458 =4,945
》 Total production = 4,945, expected profit = $102,205,
expected overstock = 1,154, expected understock = 209
19
Value of Postponement with
Dominant Product
► Option 2:
》 A = 3100 + 3300 = 4,000; A =
800 2  200 2  3  872
》 Total production = 4,457; expected profit = $99,872,
expected overstock = 623, expected understock = 166
► Expected profit without postponement = $102,205
► Expected profit with postponement = $99,872
20
Meaning of Pure Postponement
► Postponement may reduce overall profit for a firm if a
single product contributes the majority of the demand,
since the increased manufacturing expense due to
postponement outweighs the small benefit from
aggregation
21
Tailored Postponement: Benetton
本作品轉載自Benetton Group
(http://www.benettongroup.com/)，依據著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
► On the portion of the certain demand, postponement
provides little value, thus, company needs to use
lower cost method.
► On the portion of the uncertain demand,
postponement significantly improves forecast
accuracy, thus, company is willing to incur higher
cost to achieve the benefit.
► Produce Q1 units for each color using Option 1 and
QA units (aggregate) using Option 2
22
Tailored Postponement: Benetton
Manufacturing Policy
23
Q1
QA
Average
Profit
Average
Overstock
Average
Understock
0
4524
$97847
510
210
1337
0
$94377
1369
282
700
1850
$102730
308
168
800
1550
$104603
427
170
900
950
$101326
607
266
900
1050
$101647
664
230
1000
850
$100312
815
195
1000
950
$100951
803
149
1100
550
$99180
1026
211
1100
650
$100510
1008
185
The Benefit of Tailored Postponement
► Tailored postponement allows a firm to increase its
profitability by postponing only the uncertain part of
the demand and producing the predictable part at a
lower cost without postponement
24
The Meaning of Tailored Sourcing
► A combination of two supply sources: one focusing
on cost but unable to handle uncertainty well, and the
other focusing on flexibility to handle uncertainty but
a higher cost
► A backup policy
► Disadvantage: increasing complexity of
implementation
25
Tailored Sourcing
► Sourcing alternatives
》 Low cost, long lead time supplier
► Cost = $245, Lead time = 9 weeks
》 High cost, short lead time supplier
► Cost = $250, Lead time = 1 week
26
Tailored Sourcing Strategies
27
Fraction of demand from
overseas supplier
Annual Profit
0%
$37,250
50%
$51,613
60%
$53,027
100%
$48,875
Tailored Sourcing: Multiple Sourcing Sites
28
Characteristic
Primary Site
Secondary Site
Manufacturing Cost
High
Low
Flexibility
(Volume/Mix)
High
Low
Responsiveness
High
Low
Engineering Support
High
Low
Dual Sourcing Strategies
本作品轉載自Benetton Group
(http://www.benettongroup.com/)，依據著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
29
Strategy
Primary Site
Secondary Site
Volume based dual
sourcing (Benetton)
Fluctuation
Stable demand
Product based dual
sourcing(Levi
Strauss)
Unpredictable
products, Small
batch
Predictable, large
batch products
Model based dual
sourcing
Newer products
Older stable
products
Contracts for Product Availability
and Supply Chain Profits
► Many shortcomings in supply chain performance occur because
the buyer and supplier are separate organizations and each
tries to optimize its own profit
► Total supply chain profits might therefore be lower than if the
supply chain coordinated actions to have a common objective of
maximizing total supply chain profits
► Double marginalization results in suboptimal order quantity
► An approach to dealing with this problem is to design a contract
that encourages a buyer to purchase more and increase the
level of product availability
► The supplier must share in some of the buyer’s demand
uncertainty
30
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體
藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著作權法
第46、52、65條合理使用。
Contracts for Product Availability
and Supply Chain Profits
► Many
shortcomings
in supply chain
performance
occuron
because
Impact
of
Supply
Chain
Contracts
the buyer and supplier are separate organizations and each
tries to Profitability:
optimize its own profit
Buyback Contracts
► Total supply chain profits might therefore be lower than if the
》
Buybacks
by publishersactions to have a common objective of
supply
chain coordinated
maximizing total supply chain profits
》 Tech Fiber produces jacket at v = $10 and charges a
► Double
marginalization
suboptimal
wholesale
price of c =results
$100.inSki
Adventureorder
sellsquantity
jacket for
= $200. Demand
normal
=1,000
and
► An papproach
to dealingiswith
thisdistributed
problem iswith
to design
a contract
Unsolda jackets
no salvage
that=300.
encourages
buyer tohave
purchase
more value.
and increase the
level►ofShould
product
TFavailability
be willing to buy back unsold jackets? Why?
► 》
TheCSL
supplier
must share in some of the buyer’s demand
SA = 0.5, SA orders 1,000, expected profit = $76,063;
uncertainty
TF sells 1,000 for a total profit of $90,000. Total expected
SC profit = $166,063
31
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多
媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及
著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
Contracts for Product Availability
and Supply Chain Profits
► Many shortcomings in supply chain performance occur because
the buyer and supplier are separate organizations and each
tries to optimize its own profit
► Total supply chain profits might therefore be lower than if the
supply chain coordinated actions to have a common objective of
maximizing total supply chain profits
► Double marginalization results in suboptimal order quantity
► An approach to dealing with this problem is to design a contract
that encourages a buyer to purchase more and increase the
level of product availability
► The supplier must share in some of the buyer’s demand
uncertainty
32
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝
廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著作權法第46、
52、65條合理使用。
The Categories of Supply Contract
► Horizon Length
► Pricing: linear (proportional) or non-linear (two-part
tariff); buyback, holding cost subsidies, payment for
inability to supply
► Periodicity of ordering: fixed or random
► Quantity commitment:
》 Total minimum commitment: quantity or dollar value
》 Periodical commitment
》 Demand commitment
》 Capacity commitment
33
The Categories of Supply Contract
► Flexibility:
》 Magnitude or frequency of adjustments
► Delivery commitment:
》 Lead time
》 Shipment policy
► Quality: defect rates, specifications
► Information sharing
34
Supplier Selection and Contracts
► Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain
Profits
》 Buyback Contracts
》 Revenue-Sharing Contracts
》 Quantity Flexibility Contracts
► Contracts to Coordinate Supply Chain Costs
► Contracts to Increase Agent Effort
► Contracts to Induce Performance Improvement
35
Supplier Selection and Contracts
ImpactforofProduct
Supply
Chainand
Contracts
on
► Contracts
Availability
Supply Chain
Profits
Profitability: Buyback Contracts
》 Buyback Contracts
》 Buybacks by publishers
》 Revenue-Sharing Contracts
》 Tech Fiber produces jacket at v = $10 and charges a
》 Quantity
Flexibility
wholesale
price of Contracts
c = $100. Ski Adventure sells jacket for
p = $200. Demand is normal distributed with =1,000 and
► Contracts
to Coordinate
Supply
Chain
Costs
=300. Unsold
jackets have
no salvage
value.
► Should
be willingAgent
to buy back
unsold jackets? Why?
► Contracts
to TF
Increase
Effort
》 CSLSA = 0.5, SA orders 1,000, expected profit = $76,063;
► Contracts
to Induce Performance Improvement
TF sells 1,000 for a total profit of $90,000. Total expected
SC profit = $166,063
36
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝
廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著作權法第46、
52、65條合理使用。
Supplier Selection and Contracts
ImpactforofProduct
Supply
Chainand
Contracts
on
► Contracts
Availability
Supply Chain
Profits
Profitability: Buyback Contracts
》 Buyback Contracts
》For entire SC, SC makes $190 for each jacket sold, and
》 Revenue-Sharing
Contracts
only loses $10. Thus,
the cost of understocking is $190, and
the cost of
overstock
is $10.
》 Quantity
Flexibility
Contracts
》The optimal
CSL for entireSupply
SC is 0.95
and produce
► Contracts
to Coordinate
Chain
Costs 1,493
jackets. Total SC profit is $183,812.
► Contracts to Increase Agent Effort
► Contracts to Induce Performance Improvement
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多
媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及
著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
37
Return Policy : Buyback
contracts
► Issue of Double Marginalization
► Wholesale price c
► Buyback price b
► Manufacturing salvage value $sM
► The salvage value for retailer is s=b
► Optimal order quantity O*
► Expected manufacturing profit
= O*(c-v) – b  expected overstock at retailer
v：生產一單位的變動成本
38
Buyback Contracts
Wholesal
e Price c
39
Buyback
price b
Optimal
Order
Size for
SA
Expected Expected Expected Expected
Profit for Returns
Profit for Supply
to TF
SA
TF
Chain
Profit
$100
$0
1000
76063
120
90000
166063
100
30
1067
80154
156
91338
171492
100
60
1170
85724
223
91886
177610
110
0
962
66252
102
96230
162482
110
78
1191
78074
239
100480
178555
110
105
1486
86938
493
96872
183810
120
0
924
56819
80
101640
158459
120
96
1221
70508
261
109225
179733
120
116
1501
77500
506
106310
183810
Buyback Contracts
► Manufactures can use buyback contracts to increase their own
profit as well as total supply chain profits. Buyback contract also
encourage retailers increase product availability
► Manufactures need to consider the cost associated with a return
► As the cost associated with a return increases, buyback
contracts become less attractive.
► Applications: (1) bookstores return the cover of the book to
reduce the cost of return; (2) manufactures use holding cost
subsidies.
40
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多
媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒
體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約及著作
權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
Contracts for Product Availability and Supply
Chain Profits: Buyback Contracts
► Allows a retailer to return unsold inventory up to a specified
amount at an agreed upon price
► Increases the optimal order quantity for the retailer, resulting in
higher product availability and higher profits for both the retailer
and the supplier
► Most effective for products with low variable cost, such as music,
software, books, magazines, and newspapers
► High tech industry provides price support for retailers due to
price drop rapidly
41
Contracts for Product Availability and Supply
Chain Profits: Buyback Contracts
► Downside:
》 Results in surplus inventory that must be disposed of,
which increases supply chain costs
》 Lead the retailer to exert less effort to sell
》 May increase information distortion through the supply
chain because the supply chain reacts to retail orders,
not actual customer demand
42
Revenue Sharing Contracts
► Manufacture charges the retailer a low wholesale
price and shares a fraction of the revenue generated
by the retailer.
► The retailer cost will be decreased due to lower
overstock cost, thus, retailer will increase the level of
product availability resulting higher profits for both
manufacturer and retailer.
43
EX:BLOCKBUSTER
Basher Eyre _Geograph
44
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2
2
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作品
授權條件
作者/來源
Flickr，作者：kennethkonica。
(http://www.flickr.com/photos/littlebiglens/6878901153/sizes/l/in/pool60201846@N00/) ，
瀏覽日期：2012/02/20。該網站採取創用CC「姓名標示－禁止改作」
3.0版授權釋出。
本作品轉載自WIKIPEDIA
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:McDonald%27s_Golden_Arches.svg)，瀏覽
日期2012/03/23 。
6, 13
本作品轉載自hp (http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/A112771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html)，依據著作權法第46、52、
65條合理使用。
7
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約
及著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
7
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約
及著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
7
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約
及著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
16-19, 22,
29
本作品轉載自Benetton Group (http://www.benettongroup.com/)，依據著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
版權聲明
頁碼
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作品
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作者/來源
11
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約
及著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
11
本作品轉載自CoolCLIPS網站
(http://dir.coolclips.com/Food/Vegetables/Vegetable_groups/bamboo,_woodcut_
style_vc001509.html), Free 150 pixel Jpeg Image，瀏覽日期2012/03/16。按
著作權法第52、65條合理使用。
11
本作品轉載自WIKIPEDIA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CocaCola_logo.svg)，瀏覽日期2012/02/24 。
30, 32
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約
及著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
31, 36, 37
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約
及著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
40
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約
及著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
40
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft服務合約
及著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
版權聲明
頁碼
44
47
作品
授權條件
作者/來源
Geograph，作者：Basher Eyre。(http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/834743) ，
瀏覽日期：2012/02/24。該網站採取創用CC「姓名標示－相同方式分享」
2.0版授權釋出。