Transcript Short-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium

Module:
19
>> Equilibrium in AD & AS
Krugman/Wells
©2009  Worth Publishers
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WHAT YOU WILL LEARN IN THIS CHAPTER
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The difference between short-run and long-run
macroeconomic equilibrium
The causes and effects of demand shocks and
supply shocks
How to determine if an economy is experiencing a
recessionary gap or an inflationary gap and how to
calculate the size of output gaps
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The AS–AD Model
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The AS-AD model uses the aggregate supply
curve and the aggregate demand curve together to
analyze economic fluctuations.
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Short-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium
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The economy is in short-run macroeconomic
equilibrium when the quantity of aggregate output
supplied is equal to the quantity demanded.
The short-run equilibrium aggregate price level
is the aggregate price level in the short-run
macroeconomic equilibrium.
Short-run equilibrium aggregate output is the
quantity of aggregate output produced in the shortrun macroeconomic equilibrium.
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The AS–AD Model
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Shifts of Aggregate Demand: Short-Run Effects
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Shifts of Aggregate Demand: Short-Run Effects
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Shifts of the SRAS Curve
Stagflation is the combination of inflation and
falling aggregate output.
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Shifts of the SRAS Curve
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Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium
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The economy is in long-run macroeconomic
equilibrium when the point of short-run
macroeconomic equilibrium is on the long-run
aggregate supply curve.
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Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium
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Short-Run Versus Long-Run Effects of a Negative
Demand Shock
Recessionary gap
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Short-Run Versus Long-Run Effects of a Positive
Demand Shock
Inflationary gap
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Gap Recap
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There is a recessionary gap when aggregate
output is below potential output.
There is an inflationary gap when aggregate
output is above potential output.
The output gap is the percentage difference
between actual aggregate output and potential
output.
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Gap Recap
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The economy is self-correcting when shocks to
aggregate demand affect aggregate output in the
short run, but not the long run.
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FOR INQUIRING MINDS
Where’s the Deflation?
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The AD–AS model says that either a negative demand
shock or a positive supply shock should lead to a fall in the
aggregate price level—that is, deflation. In fact, however,
the United States hasn’t experienced an actual fall in the
aggregate price level since 1949.
What happened to the deflation? The basic answer is that
since World War II economic fluctuations have taken place
around a long-run inflationary trend. Before the war, it was
common for prices to fall during recessions, but since then
negative demand shocks have been reflected in a decline in
the rate of inflation rather than an actual fall in prices.
A very severe negative demand shock could still bring
deflation, which is what happened in Japan.
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Negative Supply Shocks
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Negative supply shocks pose a policy
dilemma: a policy that stabilizes aggregate
output by increasing aggregate demand will
lead to inflation, but a policy that stabilizes
prices by reducing aggregate demand will
deepen the output slump.
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Negative Supply Shocks
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►ECONOMICS IN ACTION
Supply Shocks versus Demand Shocks in
Practice
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Recessions are mainly caused by demand shocks. But
when a negative supply shock does happen, the resulting
recession tends to be particularly severe.
There’s a reason the aftermath of a supply shock tends to
be particularly severe for the economy: macroeconomic
policy has a much harder time dealing with supply shocks
than with demand shocks.
The reason the Federal Reserve was having a hard time in
2008, as described in the opening story, was the fact that in
early 2008 the U.S. economy was in a recession partially
caused by a supply shock (although it was also facing a
demand shock).
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SUMMARY
1. In the AD–AS model, the intersection of the short-run
aggregate supply curve and the aggregate demand curve is the
point of short-run macroeconomic equilibrium. It determines
the short-run equilibrium aggregate price level and the level of
short-run equilibrium aggregate output.
2. Economic fluctuations occur because of a shift of the
aggregate demand curve (a demand shock) or the short-run
aggregate supply curve (a supply shock). A demand shock
causes the aggregate price level and aggregate output to move in
the same direction as the economy moves a long the short-run
aggregate supply curve. A supply shock causes them to move in
opposite directions as the economy moves along the aggregate
demand curve. A particularly nasty occurrence is stagflation—
inflation and falling aggregate output—which is caused by a
negative supply shock.
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SUMMARY
10. Demand shocks have only short-run effects on aggregate
output because the economy is self-correcting in the long run.
In a recessionary gap, an eventual fall in nominal wages
moves the economy to long-run macroeconomic equilibrium,
where aggregate output is equal to potential output. In an
inflationary gap, an eventual rise in nominal wages moves the
economy to long-run macroeconomic equilibrium. We can use
the output gap, the percentage difference between actual
aggregate output and potential output, to summarize how the
economy responds to recessionary and inflationary gaps.
Because the economy tends to be self-correcting in the long run,
the output gap always tends toward zero.
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The End of Module 19
coming attraction:
Module 20:
Economic Policy
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