Transcript Investment
Investment Chapter 14 Hong Kong Real Estate According to the planning department rental yields on residential apartments are more than 5%. Rental yields are the annual rent divided by the price level. But interest rates on mortgage loans are 2.5%. Why don’t people want to borrow at 2.5% to make 5.1% returns? Objectives Consider the theory of investment in real capital. Evaluate the components of the cost of capital. Calculate the optimal capital stock as a function of the cost of capital. Apply Capital Theory to the real estate market Calculate Tobin’s q to estimate the desirability of corporate investment. Evaluate relationship between leverage and investment. Terminology: Investment We use the term investment to refer to real expenditure (public and/or private) on tangible assets. We call the stock of tangible assets capital or physical capital. The unit of measure of aggregate capital is dollars. Gross Investment refers to purchases of new investment. Net Investment is Gross Investment minus depreciation. Components of Investment Investment Fixed Investment Residential Investment Business Investment Structures Machinery & Equipment Changes in Stocks – Inventory Investment Gross Fixed Capital Formation: HK 2002 5% 3% 10% 14% Transfer Costs of Land & Building Real Estate Developers' Margin Machinery & Equipment 14% Public Construction Private Residential Private: Non-residential 54% Investment Facts Investment expenditure is a substantial share of GDP, but not as large as consumption. Fixed and inventory investment are closely correlated with the business cycle. Investment is an especially volatile part of GDP. Business Cycle Volatility Business Cycle Volatility of Real Investment in Hong Kong .20 .15 .10 .05 .00 -.05 -.10 -.15 1975 1980 1985 GDP 1990 1995 INVESTMENT 2000 Marginal Analysis Economists use marginal analysis to determine an optimal level of an activity. Most activities have diminishing marginal returns. Marginal returns are the extra benefit received from doing a bit more of the activity. Do more of the activity until that point when marginal returns from doing a bit more of the activity start to become more than the cost of the activity. Optimal Capital Benefit of owning capital is that it allows us to produce more goods. Marginal product of capital is the extra revenue from the extra goods we could produce if we had just a bit more capital. MPK can be measured in either nominal, current price (PMPK) or real, constant price (MPK) terms. Capital has diminishing returns. MPK is a decreasing function of the capital stock. Productivity of Capital The productivity or average productivity of capital is the revenue generated per dollar of capital. APK is value of output divided by the capital stock. Value of Output APK Value of Capital Value can be measured in constant or current price terms. Marginal productivity of capital is often thought to be roughly proportional to average productivity capital. MPK K Cost of Capital Economists define the (time) cost of capital as the cost of holding a unit of capital for a period of time. A firm invests in capital equipment for a period. The firm borrows money upfront to finance the purchase. The firm produces goods and generates revenues. The firm sells the capital at the end of the period, typically at less than the purchase price due to wear and tear. The firm repays loan. Cost of using capital includes interest payment plus loss on the resale of capital. Optimal Capital Example. K , NEW A firm borrows Pt to buy 1 capital good at interest rate 1+i. The firm produces PMPKt+1 worth of goods and sells the capital good for Pt K ,OLD. Optimal to buy capital good as long as payoff is greater than the cost. Optimal Condition Pt K1,OLD PMPKt 1 it Pt K ,NEW Definition of Capital Cost PMPK t iPt K , NEW [ Pt K1,OLD Pt K , NEW ] Cost of Capital Capital Cost 1. 2. 3. ck iPt K , NEW [ Pt K1,OLD Pt K , NEW ] We can divide the capital cost into three PK K , NEW i g P t parts. Interest cost: Net Pt K1, NEW Pt K1,OLD interest rate. Depreciation: Defined Pt K , NEW as change in value due to aging. K , NEW K , NEW Capital gain: Defined K P P P t 1 t g as change in value Pt K , NEW due to change in price of new goods. Real Capital Cost We can convert the PMPK i gtP1 Pt K , NEW optimal capital equation into real MPK i gtP1 ptK , NEW terms by dividing both sides by the price MPK r gtp1 ptK , NEW rckt level. Define the real price of capital good as Pt K , NEW k pt price of capital good Pt relative to the firm’s output price. K K K PMPK P K , NEW K Example A taxi agency can produce a certain amount of revenue with larger numbers of taxis. Assume earnings (revenues minus wages minus costs) per year is given by the 3 schedule $200,000 4 N Assume that the purchase price of a new taxi (with license) is $1,000,000. The borrowing interest cost is 4% and a taxi’s value depreciates by 8% per year. We assume that taxi’s prices increase by 2% per year. Optimum Number of Taxis The extra earnings generated by moving from 5 taxis to 6 taxis is less than cost of capital. Maximum profits occurs where marginal cost equals marginal earnings. Taxis 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Revenues Costs 200000 100000 336358.6 200000 455901.4 300000 565685.4 400000 668740.3 500000 766731.7 600000 860703.4 700000 951365.7 800000 1039230 900000 1124683 1000000 Profits 100000 136358.6 155901.4 165685.4 168740.3 166731.7 160703.4 151365.7 139230.5 124682.7 Marginal Marginal Earnings Cost 200000 100000 136358.6 100000 119542.8 100000 109784 100000 103054.9 100000 97991.42 100000 93971.69 100000 90662.28 100000 87864.79 100000 85452.17 100000 Optimal Capital: Example Solve for Optimal Level of Capital PMPK $150, 000 1 4 N (.04 .08 .02) $1, 000, 000 ck P K $150, 000 14 * N N * 1.54 5.0625 $100, 000 PMPK P K , NEW ck K K* MPK & Optimal Capital Q: Why does MPK slope down. A: Diminishing returns to capital. Each additional unit of capital generates less additional revenue at a given workforce and technology level. Q: What shifts the MPK curve. A: Changes in productivity of capital. An increase in workforce or technology will make capital more productive and shift MPK curve out. PMPK P K , NEW PMPK ' P K , NEW ck K K* K** PMPK P K , NEW ck’ ck K K** K* Investment Volatility The stock of capital may not be particularly volatile over the business cycle. Capital stock is much larger than the flow of new investment in a given year, perhaps 10-15 times as large. A 1% reduction in optimal capital stock will require a 10% reduction in investment. Tax Rates Corporations frequently must pay taxes on earnings. Define taxrate, . Corporations also receive deductions for costs of capital Define deduction rates = (s1, s2, s3, ….) Maximize after-tax profits implies that after-tax marginal product of capital = after-tax cost of capital. (1 ) PMPKt (1 s1 )i (1 s2 ) (1 s3 ) g P K Pt K , NEW Which cost of capital? Which interest rates should we use to calculate the cost of capital. This depends on several things including the risk of the investment project & flexibility and duration. If capital project is risky, we might apply a risk premium (i.e. use the interest rate on a risky bond). Duration & Flexibility If we must own capital for many periods before resale, we might want to equalize average marginal product of capital during the period to a long term interest rate plus average depreciation less change in the price of capital. Real Estate Real Estate is an important type of physical capital investment and a special type of financial investment. Uniqueness- Each location of property is unique, making it harder to value. Illiquid – Harder to sell than paper financial assets, longer lead times for building real property. Large share of the wealth of middle income households. Rental Yields & Cost of Capital Payoff to owning property is rent, R. Define rental yield, y, as the ratio of rent to property prices, PPE. PMPK RE R R y RE P ck Capital cost of real estate includes RE Interest rate, i Depreciation/Maint enance Costs δ Property Taxes: τ Other Costs: c RE P Capital Gains, g (i c g PRE )PRE Cost of Capital Theory & Real Estate Constructing New Buildings has long lead times. For a fixed stock of buildings we can use cost of capital theory (y = ckRE) to derive prices as a function of rents. R 1 1 RE y ck RE P R R P RE P ck (i c g ) Ceteris Paribas Curve PRE R↑ → ↑ i↑ ← ↓ δ↑ ← ↓ τ↑ ← ↓ c↑ ← ↓ PRE ↑ → ↑ g Real Estate Pricing 1 R ck 45% PRE P* Expectations A key determinant of the price of real estate is the expected capital gain. Expected deflation explains why rental yields are so much higher in HK than mortgage rates. Waves of optimism and pessimism may lead to persistent fluctuations in property prices. HK Property Prices HK: Property Capital Value: Residential: Medium HKD/Sq ft 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Dec-1988 Dec-1990 Dec-1992 Dec-1994 Dec-1996 Dec-1998 Dec-2000 Dec-2002 q theory & Corporate Investment A benchmark theory of corporate investment is that investment is a function of a quantity q. The measure of q for a firm is Market Value of Firm q Replacement Cost of Capital The market value of a publicly listed firm without debt is market capitalization (stock price * shares outstanding). The market value of a publicly listed firm with debt is the market capitalization plus value of debt (i.e. the cost of owning the firm lock, stock and barrel). q theory If value of firm is greater than the cost of capital (q > 1) than the value of capital inside the firm is greater than the value of capital outside the firm. If q > 1, firm should have positive net investment. If q = 1, firm should have zero net investment. If q < 1, firm should have negative net investment. q as Cost of Capital Theory We might think of q theory as similar to cost of capital theory for firms that get financing through the stock market. Owners of equity have a claim to the profits of the firm. They might require a certain amount of profits relative to what Profits ck Market Capitalization they pay for the stock. A firm generates a certain amount of Profits MPK Price of Capital profits per unit of capital q Market Capitalization Price of Capital Profits Price of Capital Profits Market Capitalization MPK ck Investment & the Stock Market Q theory suggests that a rise in stock market theories could be thought of as a decline in the cost of raising funds through equity. Empirically, q theory seems to do a poor job of explaining connections between the stock market and investment. Why? Many firms change their capital stock infrequently. Short-term fluctuations in stock market may have little effect. Stock market bubbles may keep stock prices from reflecting a realistic assessment of value of corporate capital. Firms may be limited in ability to raise funds in stock market. Corporate Finance Two kinds of Finance External Finance – Funds for investment raised through loans or issuing securities. Internal Finance – Funds for investment raised through retaining profits instead of paying dividends. Benchmark M-M Theory says investment decisions and firm value should not depend on sources of financing. Requirements: No distortionary taxation Perfect financial markets with perfect information. Reality Internal Funds are cheaper form of financing than external funds. Much of corporate financing is through internal finance. Investment is more strongly affected by cash flow than q. Cost of capital depends on collateral value that firms can pay if they default on loans or bonds. Credit Cycles: Real Estate Much of corporate collateral is real estate. Real estate is good collateral because it cannot be easily moved and its value is relatively easy for outsiders to derive. Fluctuations in property price have effects on cost of capital and investment.