Transcript Ekonomi Bisnis dan Manajerial

Ekonomi Bisnis dan
Manajerial
1.Mengetahui ruang lingkup mata
kuliah ini
2. Mengetahui lingkungan ekonomi di
dalam mana bisnis dilakukan
What is MICROECONOMICS?
MICRO:
– study of economic behavior of (relatively)
"small" units, e.g., workers, firms
Versus MACRO:
– study of economy as a whole,
– aggregate actor behavior
• Remarkable consensus on micro's
underlying principles
– "laws" and tools of analysis, but vast differences
in terms of what to do with the analysis.
• Micro inherently conservative (?!).
Role of Theory
Microeconomic theory evolved gradually
– 1700s & late 1800s.
– Marshall’s famous "scissors"
– Few changes to core of micro
theory in many decades.
"Theory provides means or
framework for explaining
complex reality”
– Simplifies/abstracts from reality
Basic Supply and Demand Curves
Price
S
– Need not fully or precisely describe reality
D
Quantity
Role of Theory
• Best test of 'good' theory?
– Whether it explains/predicts what it's designed
to, NOT whether its assumptions are correct
or reflect reality
• CAVEAT:
– Many controversies & issues here
– Can have seemingly good theory, but as
result of non-modeled events or other
supporting circumstances, lousy results
Positive v. Normative Analysis
Economists & others often called on to assess
best policy approach.
– Positive analysis — "WHAT IS“
– Normative analysis — "WHAT SHOULD BE"
Important Distinction
– Much of micro in realm of positive analysis, dealing
w/propositions that can be tested in terms of
underlying logic (qualitative analysis) & empirical
evidence (quantitative analysis)
Positive v. Normative Analysis
• Qualitatively determining expected effects of
particular policy, based on micro theory
– Likely effects on employment, production, prices
• Quantitatively determining size of actual effects
of particular policy.
– Stats./econometrics & statistical significance
• Then, go further (Steps 1 & 2). Use value
judgments to decide whether or not such effects
are desired — realm of normative analysis.
• Economists no better than anyone else at making these …
Value Judgments
"When analysis comes in conflict with
[strongly held] values, values trump
analysis every time."
• Theda Skocpol (1997 Harvard) on 'welfare devolution’
Continuing debate on the ‘success’ of
welfare reform in U.S. CEA, Bill Clinton,
Al From, Bush, others:
• Was it policy or the economy & how much of each?
J. Bishop’s 1998 & R. Blank’s 2002 analysis of
impacts v. CEA’s
Welfare Reform’s ‘Success’?
Consider Blank (2002)—
Figure 3-1
Labor Force Participation Rates for Women
by Marital Status and Presence of Children, 1989-2001
0.800
0.780
0.760
Single w / no kids
0.740
0.720
Single w / kids under 18
0.700
0.680
0.660
0.640
Married w / kids under 18
Married w / no kids
0.620
0.600
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Sour ce : Author s ' tabulations of M ar ch Cur re nt Population Surve y data, for
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Why POLITICAL ECONOMY?
Why not just microeconomics taught
by UT’s econ tribe?
– Cheaper, easier? Why not?
– For starters, check out stark contrast
in treatments by B&Z, Kuttner, Blank
& McGurn …
QUESTIONS
– Do “free markets” exist? Yes & No.
So what?
– What share of GDP produced & sold
in “free markets”?
Considerations
• Influence of laws, institutions & “rules of
the game”
• Effects of power & influence on market
outcomes
• Issues surrounding “one-man/one vote,”
“one-dollar/one-vote”
– The Endowment Issue
• Effects of policies & policy shifts on
markets & on market outcomes
Considerations
• Question: How deterministic is market
analysis?
• Question: Is there ‘play’ in markets? If so,
how much?
– 2001 Austin Equity Comm. & “living wage”
issue; see J. Siedlecki piece, LBJ Journal
(Spring/Summer 2005 – Link to article)
• Question: Do markets sometimes fail and,
if so, whats’ to be done about it?
The Imperial Market
Considerable “market worship”
• Not just among economists, but
policymakers of almost all stripes
(Kuttner, ch. 2)
Theory of Second Best
• i.e., where markets have multiple
‘distortions,’ removing one to create
purer market won’t necessarily
improve overall outcomes.
Market Analysis: Terms &
Concepts
Market defined as —
" Area” where potential buyers & sellers of a
good/service interact
"interplay of all potential buyers & sellers involved in”
Prices (to economists)
Relative (or real) prices, i.e., price relative to prices of
all other goods/services at point in time.
Issue more one of dynamics, change over time...
Market Analysis: Key Actors
Buyers/consumers
– Theoretical abstraction largely ignores
important market intermediaries, e.g.,
unions, trade associations.
‘Lost’ tribe of economists who
emphasize institutions & their effects
within a market economy.
Galbraith
– Pure market analysis insufficient, per se
Marshall
Market Analysis: Time
Time
• One of more important
dimensions of market
analysis
• S & D responses can & do
vary enormously over the
short- and longer-term!
Behavioral Assumptions
Critical foundation for what follows:
1. Self-interested behavior
•
actors pursue own goals & objectives
2. Rational behavior
•
actors weigh choices & actions and act
deliberately
3. Scarce resources
•
or, as a famous (non-practicing) economist put it,
"you can't always get what you want!”
Note: 1 + 2 => generally prefer more to less
Behavioral Assumptions
THUS,
• Actors must choose among available
options, pursuing desires rationally with
limited resources
or
• "Actors make choices subject to a
resource constraint"
Production Possibilities Frontier
• All possible combinations of
goods/services a rational actor
can attain with fixed resources
• Technology
• [What does this mean?]
Illustrate with 2 choices
• Say... research reports, R,
and research proposals, P
• Might also view as Present v. Future
PPF
Research
Reports
(present)
Production Possibilities
Curve
Research Proposals
(future)
PPF
Research
Reports
(present)
Production Possibilities
Curve
A
Research Proposals
(future)
PPF
Research
Reports
(present)
Production Possibilities
Curve
A
B
Research Proposals
(future)
PPF
Research
Reports
(present)
Production Possibilities
Curve
A
C
B
Research Proposals
(future)
PPF
Research
Reports
(present)
Production Possibilities
Curve
A
B
D
C
Research Proposals
(future)
PPF
Opportunity Cost:
• Amount of one good that must be
foregone to produce added unit of another
• PPF slope
• Marginal Rate of Transformation, MRT
• Defined as: ∆R / ∆P
• Think "rise over run”
PPF Questions
Q1: Why is PPF concave?
A1: Efficiency of resource use dictates that as shift
resources to producing more of one, less of
another, become less efficient in doing so.
Q2: Which goods combination = BEST?
A2: Don't know (yet)! Depends on "preferences"
which we'll get to shortly.
PPF Questions …
Q3: Why not either devote more resources
to production or improve technology to
attain greater amounts of BOTH goods?
A3: Can't! In the short run, resources &
technology are both FIXED.
Opportunity Cost
• Economic or opportunity cost of given action or
choice comprised of both:
– EXPLICIT (or accounting) Cost
• defined typically in terms of monetary costs;
– IMPLICIT (or non-monetary) Cost
• imputed value of alternative use of resources
• “Value of resource in its best alternative use",
includes both explicit (monetary) and implicit (or
non-monetary) costs
– Key concept in micro & policy analysis
– Numerous applications, e.g., benefit/cost analysis
Discussion
Significance of accounting v. economic
costs, in terms of:
– Education & career choices?
– The environment?
– Welfare reform and related interventions?
What of "sunk costs"?
– Already incurred, can't recoup. So, forget
them.
Demand Schedules & Curves
Demand
– Schedule of prices & associated
quantities of goods/services
consumers willing & able to
Prices
purchase.
Demand Schedule,
for example:
– Functionally Q1 = a + bP1
Quantities
$7
2
$6
3
$5
4
Etc...
Demand Schedules & Curves
Law of Demand
– The lower the price of a good or service, the
larger the quantity consumers wish to
purchase (demand), ceteris paribus.
• Law of D —> negative slope for D curve!
• NOTE TERMS! Distinguish carefully between:
– ∆Qd (movement along)
versus
– ∆ in D, a shift in D Curve
– Ceteris paribus — tastes, incomes, prices of
other goods. E.g. iPods...
Demand Schedules & Curves
Price
Demand for iPods
D1
Quantity
Demand Schedules & Curves
Price
Demand for iPods
D1
Quantity
D2
Demand Depends On...
Incomes: Response depends very much on
TYPE of good/service!
– If “normal” good, increase in average
household income, Y
• With P unchanged, leads to
increased consumption of iPods
• That is, demand shifts from D1 to D2
– If "inferior" good, increase in Y
• With P unchanged, leads to decreased iPod
consumption, again a demand shift.
Inferior Goods?
Inferior goods:
– Spam
– Texas wines
– Hamburger
– Others?
*Most goods = Normal*
Demand Depends On...
Prices of Other Goods
– Depends very much on WHICH other goods!
Examples...
– CD Prices? Sharp drop in P of CDs leads to
increased consumption of CD players
• A shift out in demand, from D1 to D2.
• Complements in consumption, I.e., their
consumption "goes together"...
Demand Depends On...
Prices of Other Goods
• another example
– VCRs? Sharp drop in P of DVD players leads
to decreased consumption of VCRs
• a shift in demand from D2 to D1.
• Substitutes in consumption, alternatives for
meeting same needs...
• “Either/or” goods.
Demand Depends On...
Tastes & Preferences
– Can deal with these any
number of ways:
Consider introduction of
new alternatives
– growth of live music
venues, DATs & DAT
players, iPods, "retro"
(vinyl) movement
– E.g., the Wine Industry
Supply Schedules & Curves
SUPPLY, the producer side of the market:
– schedule of prices & associated quantities producers willing &
able to produce & sell at point in time.
LAW of SUPPLY:
– Higher the price, the larger the quantity producers will want to
produce (supply) at any point in time, cet. par. So, positive slope!
P as "reward for production":
– As more produced, per-unit opportunity cost of production tends
to increase. Higher Ps needed to elicit greater Qs.
Ceteris paribus:
– Technology/production techniques, input factor prices/availability
generally. Try same e.g., iPods...
Supply Schedules & Curves
Supply of iPods
Price
S1
Quantity
Supply Schedules
Consider:
• Technology of Production
– Intro of new, more efficient production
techniques (e.g. HPWO) allows producers to
produce more at every P. So, supply shifts out
from S1 to S2
• Input Supply Conditions
– Increase in labor costs—one NOT offset by
productivity increases—leads to reduced
supply, a shift from S2 to S1.
Supply Schedules & Curves
Supply of iPods
Price
S1
S2
Quantity
Market Equilibrium,
Disequilibrium
Equilibrium P & Q —> no forces acting to
make them different!
– Static, not really dynamic.
Example?
– Try the market for Applied Microeconomics
textbooks...
Market Equilibrium
Applied Microeconomics
Textbook Market
Price
S
D
Quantity
Market Equilibrium
Applied Microeconomics
Textbook Market
Price
Pe
$125
S
D
Qe
Quantity
Market Equilibrium
Applied Microeconomics
Textbook Market
Price
Surplus
P1
$200
Pe
$125
S
D
Q1
Qe
Q2
Quantity
Market Equilibrium
Applied Microeconomics
Textbook Market
Price
Surplus
P1
$200
Pe
$125
P2
Shortage
$75
S
D
Q1
Qe
Q2
Quantity
Government Interventions...
• NYC rent controls, minimum wage hikes
(1977-81, 1989, 1995)
– classic illustrations of impact of market interventions
– wage/price controls (1971-74)
Q: Are such interventions “bad”?
– Maybe, if you're a market worshiper
• Otherwise, depends upon your values & other non-market
considerations ...
• Some adverse market & non-market
responses—
– Non-price rationing
– Quality deterioration
– Black markets