Transcript Balance –of-Payments Adjustments with Exchange Rate Changes

International Economics
Li Yumei
Economics & Management School
of Southwest University
International Economics
Chapter 16
The Price Adjustment
Mechanism with Flexible and
Fixed Exchange Rates
Organization
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16.1 Introduction
16.2 Adjustment with Flexible Exchange Rates
16.3 Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on
Domestic Prices and the Terms of Trade
16.4 Stability of Foreign Exchange Markets
16.5 Elasticities in the Real World
16.6 Adjustment Under the Gold Standard
Chapter Summary
Exercises
Internet Materials
16.1 Introduction
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How a nation’s current account is affected by
price changes under flexible and fixed exchange
rate systems
How the nation’s current account is affected by
income changes in the nation and abroad
Assumptions
There are no autonomous international private capital
flows, that is international private capital flows take place
only as passive responses to cover temporary trade
imbalance
The nation wants to correct a deficit in its current account
by exchanging rate changes
16.2 Adjustment with Flexible
Exchange Rates

Introduction
This section studies the method of correcting a deficit in a
nation’s current account or balance of payments by a
depreciation or a devaluation of the nation’s currency
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Price Adjustment Mechanism(价格调整机制）
It means that both a depreciation and a devaluation operate
on prices to bring about adjustment in the nation’s current
account and the balance of payments
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Income Adjustment Mechanism（收入调整机制）
It relies on income changes in the nation and abroad to bring
about adjustment in the nation’s current account and the
balance of payments
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 Balance –of-Payments Adjustments
with Exchange Rate Changes
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Figure 16.1
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The process of correcting a deficit in a nation’s balance of
payments by a depreciation or devaluation of its currency is
Shown
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It is assumed that US and EMU are the only two economies
in the world and that there are no international capital flows,
so that US demand and supply curves for euros reflect only
trade in goods and services
FIGURE 16-1 Balance-of-Payments Adjustments with
Exchange Rate Changes.
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Explanation of Figure 16.1
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At the exchange rate of R=$1/ €1, The quantity of euros
demanded by US is €12billion per year, while the quantity
supplied is €8billion. As a result, US has a deficit of €4 billion
(AB) in its balance of payments
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With D€ and S€, a 20 percent depreciation or devaluation of the
dollar would completely eliminate the deficit (point E). Exchange
rate from R=$1/ €1 to R= R=$1.2/ €1, the quantity of euros
demanded and the quantity supplied would be equal at €10billion
per year, and US balance of payments would be in equilibrium
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With D★€ and S★€, a 100 percent depreciation or devaluation
would be required t eliminate the deficit (point E★)
 Derivation of the Demand Curve
for Foreign Exchange
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Figure 16.2
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In Figure 16.1 US demand curve for euros ( D€) is derived
from the demand and supply curves of US imports in terms
of euros (shown in the left panel of Figure 16.2)
In Figure 16.1 US supply curve for euros ( S€) is derived
from the demand and supply curves of US exports in terms
of euros (shown in the right panel of Figure 16.2)
DM is the US demand for imports from the EUM interms of
euros at R=$1/ €1, while SM is the EUM supply of imports to
US
When the dollar depreciates by 20 percent to R=$1.2/ €1, SM
remains unchanged , but DM shifts down by 20 percent to
D’M.
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FIGURE 16-2 Derivation of the U.S. Demand and Supply Curves
for Foreign Exchange.
 Derivation of the Supply Curve
for Foreign Exchange
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Figure 16.2
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In the right panel of Figure 16.2, DX is the EMU demand for
US exports in terms of euros, and SX is the US supply of
exports to EMU at R=$1/ €1.
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With DX and SX, the euro price of US exports is PX= €2, and
the quantity of US exports is QX=4billion units, so that the
US quantity of euros earned or supplied is €8 billion. This
corresponds to point A on S€ in Figure 16.1
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When the dollar is devalued or is allowed to depreciate by
20 percent to R= $1.2/ €1, DX remains unchanged, but SX
shifts down by 20 percent to S’X
16.3 Effect of Exchange Rate
Changes on Domestic Prices
and the Terms of Trade
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Domestic Prices
The depreciation or devaluation of the dollar stimulates the
production of US import substitutes and exports and will lead to a
rise in prices in US, while it reduces the euro price of US imports
and export (Figure 16.2)
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Terms of Trade
Since the prices of both the nation’s exports and imports rise in
terms of the domestic currency as a result of its depreciation or
devaluation, the terms of trade of the nation can rise, fall , or
remain unchanged, depending on whether the price of exports
rises by more than, less than, or the same percentages as the
price of imports.
16.4 Stability of Foreign
Exchange Markets
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Introduction
This section examines the meanings of and the
conditions for stability of the foreign exchange
Market
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Stable Foreign Exchange Market
When a disturbance from the equilibrium exchange rate gives
rise to automatic forces that push the exchange rate back
toward the equilibrium level.
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Unstable Foreign Exchange Market
When a disturbance from equilibrium pushes the exchange rate
further away from equilibrium.
 Stable and Unstable Foreign Exchange
Markets
 Figure 16.3
 A foreign exchange market is stable when the supply curve of
foreign exchange is positively sloped or, if negatively sloped, is
less elastic (steeper) than the demand curve of foreign exchange
 A foreign exchange market is unstable if the supply curve is
negatively sloped and more elastic (flatter) than the demand
curve of foreign exchange
FIGURE 16-3 Stable and Unstable Foreign Exchange Markets.
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Explanation of Figure 16.3
 Left panel of figure 16.3 repeats D€ and S€ from Figure 16.1.
With D€ and S€ , the equilibrium exchange rate is R=$1.20/ €1, at
which the quantity of euros demanded and the quantity supplied
are equal at €10billion per year (point E). If the exchange rate fell
to R=$1/ €1, there would be an excess demand for euros, which
would automatically push the exchange rate back up toward the
equilibrium rate of R=$1.20/ €1. If the exchange rate rose to
R=$1.40/ €1, there would be an excess quantity supplied of
euros, which would automatically drive the exchange rate back
down toward the equilibrium rate of R=$1.20/ €1, the left panel of
figure 16.3 is stable
 Center panel of Figure 16.3 shows the same D€ as in the left
panel, but S€ is now negatively sloped but steeper than D€. It is
the stable
 Right Panel of Figure 16.3 looks the same as the center panel,
but the labels of the demand and supply curves are reversed, so
that now S€ is negatively sloped and flatter than D€ . It is unstable.
 The Marshall-Lerner Condition
 Introduction
The Marshall-Lerner Condition tells us whether the foreign
exchange market is stable and unstable .
 Implications
 It indicates a stable foreign exchange market if the sum of the price
elasticities of the demand for imports (DM) and the demand for exports
(DX), in absolute terms, is greater than 1.
 If the sum of the price elasticities of DM and DX is less than 1, the
foreign exchange market is unstable , and if the sum of these two
demand elasticities is equal to 1, a change in the exchange rate will
leave the balance of payments unchanged.
16.5 Elasticities in the Real World
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Introduction
This section examines how the price elasticity of demand for imports
and exports is measured and present some real-world estimates,
discuss the J-curve effect, and examine the “pass-through” of exchange
rate changes to domestic prices
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Elasticity Estimates
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Before World War Ⅱit was widely believed that the foreign
exchange market was stable but the demand for and the supply of
foreign exchange were very elastic
During eh 1940s, a number of econometric studies were
undertaken to measure price elasticities in international trade, it
was founded that the sum of the demand elasticities on the
average barely exceeded 1, so that while the foreign exchange
market was stable
Orcutt (1950) for the belief that the early studies of 1940s result
from the identification problem (Figure 16.4) in estimation.
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FIGURE 16-4 The Identification Problem.
 The J-Curve Effect and Revised
Elasticity Estimates
 Introduction
 Not only are short-run elasticities in international trade likely
to be much smaller than long-run elasticities, but a nation’s trade
balance may actually worsen soon after a devaluation or
depreciation
 Over time , the quantity of exports rises and the quantity of
imports falls, and export prices catch up with import prices, so
that the initial deterioration in the nation’s trade balance is halted
and then reversed.
 Economists have called this tendency of a nation’s trade
balance to first deteriorate before improving as a result of a
devaluation or depreciation in the nation’s currency the J-curve
effect. (see Figure 16.5)
FIGURE 16-5 The J-Curve.
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Explanation of Figure 16.5
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When the nation’s net trade balance is plotted on the vertical axis
and time is plotted on the horizontal axis, the response of the
trade balance to a devaluation or depreciation looks like the
curve of a J. The figure assumes that the original trade balance
was zero
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It shows that starting fro the origin and a given trade balance, a
devaluation or depreciation of the nation’s currency will first
result in a deterioration of the nation’s trade balance before
showing a net improvement (after time A)
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Empirical studies by Harberger (1957), Houthakker and Magee
(1969), Stern, Francis, and Schumacher (1976), Spitaeller (1980),
Artus and Knight (1984), and Marquez (1990)
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Case studies
See Figure 16.6 and Figure 16.7
FIGURE 16-6 Effective Exchange Rate of the Dollar and U.S.
Current Account Balance, 1980-2001.
FIGURE 16-7 U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit with Japan and
Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate.
 Exchanging Rate Overshooting
 Conclusion
 due to the size and quickness of stock adjustments in
financial assets as opposed to adjustments in trade flows , in the
short run exchange rate must overshoot or by pass their longrun equilibrium level for equilibrium to be quickly reestablished
in financial markets.
 Over time, as the cumulative contribution to adjustment
coming from the real (e.g. trade) sector is felt, the exchange rate
reverses its movement and the overshooting is eliminated
 Time Path to a New Equilibrium
Exchange Rates
 Introduction
The model that examines the precise sequence of events that
leads the exchanger rate in the short run to overshoot its longrun equilibrium was introduced by Rudi Dornbusch in 1976 and
can be visualized with Figure 15.5
 Panel (a)
It shows at time t0 the Fed unexpectedly increases US money supply
by 10 percent, from $100 billion to $110 billion, and keeps it at that
higher level
Panel (b)
It shows the 10 percent unanticipated increase in US money supply
leads to an immediate decline in US interest rate, from 10 percent to
9 percent at time t0
(Figure continues on next slide)
FIGURE 15-5 Exchange Rate Overshooting.
 Currency Pass-Through
 Implication
Not only are there usually lags in the response of a nation’s trade
and current account balances to a depreciation of its currency,
but the increase in the domestic price of the imported commodity
may be smaller than the amount of the depreciation even after
lags
 Pass-Through Effect
The proportion of an exchange rate change that is reflected in
export and import price changes
16.6 Adjustment Under the Gold
Standard
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Introduction
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This section examines the operation of the
international monetary system known as the gold
standard
The gold standard also relies on an automatic
price mechanism for adjustment but of a different
type from the one operating under a flexible
exchange rate system
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 The Gold Standard
 The international monetary system operating from about 1880
to 1914 under which gold was the only international reserve,
exchange rates fluctuated only within the gold points, and
balance-of-payments adjustment was described by the pricespecie-flow mechanism
 Under the gold standard, each nation defines the gold content
of its currency and passively stands ready to buy or sell any
amount of gold at that price
 Gold export point and gold import point
 Since deficits are settled in gold under this system and nations
have limited gold reserves, deficits cannot go on foreve but must
soon be corrected
 The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism
 Implication
The automatic adjustment mechanism under the gold standard is
the price-specie-flow mechanism
 Quantity Theory of Money (货币数量理论）
It postulates that the nation’s money supply times the velocity of
circulation of money is equal to the nation’s general price index
times physical output at full employment. With V and Q assumed
constant , the change in P is directly proportional to the change
in M.
Equation: MV=PQ ( M the nation’s money supply, V the velocity
of circulation of money, P the general price index, Q the physical
output)
Chapter Summary
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Traditional trade or elasticity approach to exchange
rate determination
Correcting a deficit in balance of payments by
devaluating its currency or allowing it to depreciate
A devaluation or depreciation of a nation’s currency
increases the domestic currency prices of the
nation’s exports and import substitutes and is
inflationary
Stable or unstable foreign exchange market
Empirical estimates of elasticities in international
trade
The gold standard
Exercises: Additional Reading
Marshall-Lerner condition , see:
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A. Marshall, Money, Credit and Commerce (London: Macmillan, 1923)
A. Lerner, The Economics of Control (London: Macmillan, 1944)
R.M Stern, The Balance of Payments ( Chicago: Aldine, 1973), pp. 6269
Estimates of Elasticities in International Trade, see:
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T.C.Chang, “ International Comparison of Demand for Imports,” Review
of Economic Studies, 1945-1946,1945, pp.53-67
T.C.Chang, “ A Statistical Note on World Demand for Exports,” Review
of Economics and Statistics, February 1948, pp. 106-116
Internet Materials
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http://research.stlouisfed,org/fred
http://www.iadb.org
http://www.adb
http://www.iie.com