Transcript Document

Sun-Solar System Connection
Strategic Roadmap Committee #10
Interim Status Report
April 21, 2005
NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap:
Knowledge for Exploration
Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the
• Sun and its effects on
• Earth,
• the solar system,
• the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by
human explorers, and
• demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational
systems
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
External and Internal Factors
• Our technological society needs space weather knowledge
to function efficiently
• Human beings require space weather predictions to work
safely and productively in space
• We are poised to provide knowledge and
predictive understanding of the system
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Nature of the Challenge
 A quantitative, predictive
understanding of a complex
“system of systems”
 Microphysical processes
regulate global &
interplanetary structures
 Multi-constituent plasmas
and complex photochemistry
 Non-linear dynamic responses
http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/NewZoom2.mov
 Integration and synthesis of
multi-point observations
 Data assimilative models &
theory
 Interdisciplinary communities
and tools
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
We Have Already Begun!
Space Storms at Earth
Disturbed Mars-Space &
Atmospheric Loss
Dangerous
Radiation
Space Storms at
the Outer Planets
Disturbed Upper
Atmosphere
Solar System
Blast Wave
 Current Sun-Earth missions provide a prototype “Great Observatory”, providing a
first look at the system level view and informing the roadmap plan
 Theory, modeling, and observational tools now exist or can be developed to yield
both transformational knowledge of the Sun-Earth system and provide needed
tools and space weather knowledge for human exploration and societal needs
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Approach to Identify Priority Science Targets
• Predictive capability for safe and productive exploration requires full understanding of a
complex system of disparate systems
• Priority goals enable significant progress in three essential areas: Understanding,
Exploration, and Discovery
• For example, discovery of near-Sun processes by Solar Probe provides transformational
knowledge of the source of space weather enabling explorers to work safely and
productively beyond Earth's magnetic shield
Understand
Science
enabled by
Exploration
Priority
Sun-Solar
System
Connection
Science
Science
enabling
Exploration
Science that is Vital, Compelling & Urgent
Explore
Discover
Science that
transforms
knowledge
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Sun-Solar System Connection Objectives
Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental
conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems
Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction
Understand the fundamental physical processes of the
space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other
planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium
Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space
Understand how human society, technological
systems, and the habitability of planets are affected
by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields
Safeguard Our Outward Journey
Maximize the safety and productivity of human and
robotic explorers by developing the capability to
predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Open the Frontier to Space Weather Prediction
1) Understand magnetic reconnection as
revealed in solar flares, coronal mass
ejections, and geospace storms
2) Understand the plasma processes that
accelerate and transport particles
throughout the solar system
3) Understand how nonlinear interactions
transfer energy and momentum within
planetary upper atmospheres.
4) Determine how solar, stellar, and
planetary magnetic dynamos are created
and why they vary.
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Understand the Nature of our Home in Space
1) Understand the causes and subsequent
evolution of activity that affects Earth’s
space climate and environment
2) Understand changes in the Earth’s
magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper
atmosphere to enable specification,
prediction, and mitigation of their effects
3) Understand the Sun's role as an energy
source to the Earth’s atmosphere,
particularly the role of solar variability in
driving climate change
4) Apply our understanding of space
plasma physics to the role of stellar activity
and magnetic shielding in planetary
system evolution and habitability
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Safeguard our Outward Journey
1) Characterize the variability and
extremes of the space environments that
will be encountered by human and
robotic explorers
2) Develop the capability to predict the
origin of solar activity and disturbances
associated with potentially hazardous
space weather.
3) Develop the capability to predict the
acceleration and propagation of
energetic particles in order to enable
safe travel for human and robotic
explorers
4) Understand how space weather
affects planetary environments to
minimize risk in exploration activities.
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Goal Structure
Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental
conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems
Phase 1: 2005-2015
Phase 2: 2015-2025
• Measure magnetic reconnection at
the Sun and Earth
• Determine the dominant processes
of particle acceleration
• Set the critical scales over which
cross- scale coupling occurs
• Model the magnetic processes that
drive space weather
• Quantify particle acceleration for
the key regions of exploration
Understand
the Nature of
our Home in
Space
• Understand how solar
disturbances propagate to Earth
• Determine quantitative drivers of
the geospace environment
• Identify the impacts of solar
variability on Earth’s atmosphere
• Describe how space plasmas and
planetary atmospheres interact
• Identify precursors of important
solar disturbances and predict the
Earth’s response
• Integrate solar variability effects
into Earth climate models
• Determine the habitability of solar
system bodies
Safeguard our
Outward
Journey
• Determine extremes of the variable radiation and space environments at Earth, Moon, & Mars
• Nowcast solar and space weather
and forecast “All-Clear” periods
for space explorers near Earth
Open the
Frontier to
Space
Environment
Prediction
• Characterize the near-Sun source
region of the space environment
• Reliably forecast space weather for
the Earth-Moon system; make first
space weather nowcasts at Mars
• Determine Mars atmospheric
variability relevant to aerocapture,
entry, descent, landing, surface
navigation and communications
Phase 3: 2025-beyond
• Predict solar magnetic activity
and energy release
• Predict high energy particle flux
throughout the solar system.
• Understand the coupling of
disparate astrophysical systems
• Continuously forecast conditions
throughout the heliosphere
• Predict climate change*
• Determine how the habitability
evolves in time
• Image activity on other stars
• Provide situational awareness of
the space environment throughout
the inner Solar System
• Reliably predict atmospheric and
radiation environment at Mars to
ensure safe surface operations
• Analyze the first direct samples of
the interstellar medium
• Develop technologies, observations, and knowledge systems that support operational systems 11
NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Detailed Requirements Flow Down
• U.S. mandate for Sun-Solar System
Connection science and exploration
determined research focus areas
Illustration of requirements flow-down
• Vision for Space Exploration led to
scheduling of targeted outcomes
• Each targeted outcome traced to required
understanding and to focused, prioritized
enabling capabilities and measurements
• Missions, groups of missions, research,
theory, and modeling program elements,
are derived from capabilities and
measurement requirements
• Consolidation of priority outcomes show
that many program elements contribute to
multiple achievements and focus areas
• Missions singly and together contribute
unique and vital data to understand the
system of systems
• Mission studies at GSFC and JPL,
including assessment of feasibility and
maturity, categorized into cost classes:
– Explorer (< $250M), strategic ($250M$500M), large strategic ($500M-$1B),
flagship (>$1B)
Requirement -flowdowns developed for each anticipated outcome.
Prioritization of targeted outcomes informs final prioritization of program
elements and mission concepts. Access current set of these flow diagrams at
http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/flowdiagrams.html
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Program Implementation
• The plan is designed to be robust - sufficiently flexible to facilitate
adjustments as new knowledge is acquired, new discoveries are made, and
transformational technologies are developed
• A spiral development (“learn as you go”) approach is used providing key
decision points between spirals
• The spirals can be related to similar program elements of the Exploration
Initiatives, with Spiral (n-1) for SSSC informing spiral (n) for human
exploration. Thus, for example, accomplishments of SSSC Spiral 2 will
inform human exploration Spiral 3
• First spiral is already underway, utilizing current program assets and nearterm launches
• Subsequent spirals are focused on developing the new knowledge base,
new understanding, and the new predictive capability that will enable safe
and productive exploration activities
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
From Goals to Implementation
Spiral Phase 1
Sun-Earth-Moon System
Characterization of System
Spiral Phase 2
Sun - Terrestrial Planets
Modeling of System Elements
Spiral Phase 3
Sun-Solar System
System Forecasting
Joint Sun-Earth Science
Characterize
Environments
 Magnetic
reconnection
 Particle
acceleration
processes
 Impacts of
solar
variability
on Earth
& Mars
 Atmospheric
response to
external drivers
 Drivers of cislunar space
weather
Exploration
Systems
Timeline
Informs Lunar Exploration
2005
Model
Systems
 Drivers of
climate and
habitability
 Inner
heliosphere
radiation &
space weather
forecasts
 Forecast space
weather for society
& explorers
 Sample
interstellar
medium
Reliable Predictions for
all Uses of Space
Local Space Weather Forecasts
for Operations
Space Weather Impacts on
System Design
Crew Exploration Vehicle
Robotic Lunar
Exploration
 Measure
near-Sun
space
environment
 Physical
models of
important
space
weather
processes
 Predict solar,
heliospheric &
stellar activity
Forecast
Hazards
Informs Mars Exploration
Human/Robotic
Lunar Surface
Exploration
2015
Extended Human
Operations on
Lunar Surface
Mars Space Weather Operations
Human Exploration
in the
Vicinity of Mars
2025
Human Exploration
of Mars
2035
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Mission Planning
Spiral Phase 1
Sun-Earth-Moon System
Characterization of System
Spiral Phase 2
Sun - Terrestrial Planets
Modeling of System Elements
Spiral Phase 3
Sun-Solar System
System Forecasting
Future Mission Candidates
Solar:
:
SDO, Solar-B
CMEs & Heliosphere:
Solar Processes:
Solar System Space Weather:
MTRAP, RAM, Solar Orbiter, SPI
STEREO, Sentinels
DBC, SEPP, SIRA, SWBuoys
Radiation::
Heliospheric Structure &
Disturbances:
Mars Space Weather:
RBSP, Sentinels
Doppler, HIGO, Telemachus
Planetary Orbiters:
Geospace Impacts:
Geospace System Impacts:
JPO, NO, VAP
THEMIS, MMS, RBSP, ITSP
AMS, GEC, GEMINI, ITMW, MagCon, T-ITMC
Interstellar Medium:
Climate Impacts::
Climate Impacts:
Interstellar Probe
SDO, AIM
JANUS, SECEP
Habitability:
Moon, Mars Awareness::
Mars Atmosphere:
Stellar Imager
LRO, MSL, ITSP
Mars Aeronomy, Mars Dynamics
Interstellar Boundary:
Space Weather Stations:
Mars-GOES
Heliostorm, L1 Diamond, SHIELDS
IBEX
Inner Boundary::
Forecast
Hazards
Solar Probe
Already In Development or Formulation
Explorer
Partnership
Recommended
2005
Characterize
Environments
Model
Systems
2015
2025
2035
Final mission recommendations for Phases 2 and 3 to be determined during the May 10-13 Roadmap Meetings. This assignment of missions by phase is driven
primarily by resource availability. Benefits of progressive space weather capability may be realized earlier through acceleration of phased mission queue.
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Sun-Solar System Connection Summary
Already In Development or Formulation
Explorer
Partnership
Recommended
Science Questions
Goals
Implementation

Open the
Frontier to
Space
Environment
Prediction
Sample vast range with
frequent small
observatories

Strategic missions
planned for critical
scientific exploration
and for space weather
understanding

Understand
the Nature of
our Home in
Space
Safeguard
our outbound
Journey


Select low-cost Explorer
opportunity missions for
fast response as
knowledge changes
Utilize low-cost extended
missions to gain solar
system scale
understanding - Great
Observatory “sensor web”
Disseminate data for
environmental modeling
via distributed Virtual
Observatories
Investigations
 Phase 1 missions:
-Solar: SDO, Solar-B
-CMEs & Helio: STEREO,
Sentinels
-Radiation: RBSP, Sentinels
-Geospace Impact: MMS,
THEMIS, RBSP, ITSP
-Earth Impacts: SDO, AIM
-Moon, Mars Awareness:
LRO, MSL, ITSP
-Interstellar Boundary: IBEX
-Inner Boundary: Solar Probe
 Phase 2 Missions:
-Solar magnetic processes
-Impacts to geospace system
-Mars atmosphere
-Heliospheric structure &
disturbances
Achievements
Phase 1:
-Solar System Space Weather
-Mars space weather
-Venus, Jupiter, Neptune
orbiters
-Interstellar sample return
-Stellar cycles
Phase 1
 New
 Magnetic reconnection
 Particle acceleration
processes
 Drivers of cis-lunar space
weather
 Impacts of solar variability
on Earth and Mars
Phase 2:
Knowledge
 Safe and
 Physical models of important
space weather processes
 Inner heliosphere radiation &
space weather forecasts
 Atmospheric response to
external drivers
 Measure near-Sun space
environment
Phase 3:
 Phase 3 Missions:
Impacts
 Predict solar, heliospheric &
stellar activity
 Drivers of climate and
habitability
 Sample Interstellar medium
 Forecast space weather for
society and explorers
Productive
Space
Operations
 Space
Weather
Mitigation
 Decision
Support
Tools
 Future
Scientists &
Engineers
NASA & partner producers of SSSC science information
Users of SSSC science information 16
NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Near-Term Priorities and Gaps
1. Exploit the existing Sun-Solar
System Great Observatory in service
of space weather research
– Integrate LWS Ionosphere-Thermosphere Storm
Probes (ITSP or ITM) into the Great Observatory to
discover the science enabling the creation of space
weather models at Earth. This science and these
models will form the foundation upon which the Mars
space environment and its evolution, including the
Martian atmosphere, will be understood.
Solar Probe
Sentinels
2. Take the next development step for the
Sun-Solar System Connection Great
Observatory:
IT Storm
Probes
– Fly LWS Solar Probe through the Sun's atmosphere
to explore inner boundary of our system and directly
sample the source region of the solar wind and solar
energetic particles for the first time
– Deploy LWS Solar Sentinels to discover the
heliospheric initiation, propagation and solar
connection of those energetic phenomena that
adversely affect space exploration and life and
society here on Earth
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Human Capital and Infrastructure
So that we may develop/maintain U.S. space plasma and space weather prediction / mitigation expertise,
it is vital to provide a broad range of competed funding opportunities for the scientific community
Science Investigations:
• Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP)
• Living with a Star (LWS)
• Explorer Program
• Discovery Program
• Sun-Solar System Great Observatory
Research Programs:
• Research and Analysis Grants
• Guest Investigator
• Theory Program
• Targeted Research & Technology
• Project Columbia
Develop IT, Computing, Modeling and Analysis Infrastructure
• Virtual Observatories
Low Cost Access to Space
• Science, Training, & Instrument Development
E/PO to Attract Workers to Earth-Sun Systems Science
Maintain Multiple Hardware & Modeling Groups
• Strengthen University Involvement in Space Hardware Development
• Facilitate and Exploit Partnerships
• Interagency and International
Upgrade DSN to Collect More Data Throughout the Solar System
Enabling Capabilities:
Sounding Rocket/Balloon Program
Advanced Technology Program
Education and Public Outreach
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
External Partnerships
Partnership Forums:
• International Living with a Star
• International Heliophysical Year
• Enabling Space Weather Predictions for the
International Space Environment Service
• National Space Weather Program
Current Partnership Missions:
•Ulysses (ESA)
•SoHO (ESA)
•Cluster (ESA)
•Geotail (JAXA)
•Solar-B (JAXA)
Future Partnership Missions:
•Solar Orbiter (ESA)
National Partners:
•National Science Foundation
•National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
•NOAA Space Environment Center
•Department of Commerce
• Department of Defense
•Department of Transportation
•Department of Energy
•Department of the Interior
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Technology Development
• Answering science questions requires measurements at unique
vantage points in and outside the solar system
– Cost-effective, high-∆V propulsion and deep space power
– CRM-1: High energy power & propulsion—nuclear electric propulsion, RTGs
– CRM-2: In-space transportation—solar sails
– CRM-15: Nanotechnology—carbon nanotube membranes for sails
• Resolving space-time ambiguities requires simultaneous in-situ
measurements (constellations or sensor webs)
– Compact, affordable spacecraft via low-power electronics
— CRM-3: Advanced telescopes & observatories
– Low-cost access to space
– CRM-10: Transformational spaceport
• Return of large data sets from throughout the solar system
– Next-generation, Deep Space Network
– CRM-5: Communication and Navigation
• Visualization, analysis and modeling of plasma data
– CRM-13: Advanced modeling/simulation/analysis
• New measurement techniques – compact, instrumentation suites
– Next generation of Sun-Solar System instrumentation
– CRM-11: Scientific instruments & sensors
– CRM-15: Nanotechnology
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Education and Public Outreach
Education and Public Outreach is Essential to the Achievement of the Exploration Vision
– Emphasis on workforce development
– Requires increase in the capacity of our nation’s education systems (K-16)
– Entrain under-represented communities in STEM careers (demographic projections to 2025 underscore this need)
Roadmap committee #10 has focused on:
– Close up look at role national science education standards play in effectively connecting NASA content to formal education
– Importance of E/PO to achievement of Exploration Vision
– Identification of unique E/PO opportunities
– Articulation of challenges and recommendations for effective E/PO
Unique E/PO opportunities associated with SSSC science
Living With a Star
 Study the Sun to learn about stars
 Role of Solar variability in Earth’s climate
Space Weather
for Earth &
Exploration
 Analogy with terrestrial weather/climate
 Conditions changing all the time
 Need for situational awareness
 Protecting space explorers
Magnetism
 Invisible force: “seeing the invisible”
 Magnetism vs gravity; significance of
magnetism in Solar System and Universe
 Magnetic shields and planetary habitability
 Electromagnetic Spectrum
Plasma
 State of matter depends on location
Propulsion
 Solar sails for space travel
 Suborbital rockets -it really is rocket science
Tools, technology,  Suborbital rockets - opportunity to "go to space"
scientific methods  Large, high-resolution data sets, powerful images
 Modeling, visualization, simulation key to science
Engaging the
Public
 Eclipses, Transits, Auroras
 Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar storms
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Integration: Human and Robotic Flight
Sun-Solar System Connections
receives
contributes
• Space environment
specification for materials and
technology requirements
definition.
• Prediction of solar activity and
its impact on planetary and
interplanetary environments as
an operational element of
Exploration. Examples:
 presence of penetrating
radiation (hazardous to
health and microcircuitry);
 varying
ionization/scintillations
(interferes with
communications and
navigation);
 increased atmospheric
scale heights (enhanced
frictional drag).
Lunar Exploration
SRM1
Mars Exploration
SRM2
Exploration Transportation
SRM5
Space Station
SRM6
Space Shuttle
SRM7
Primary interfaces involve understanding of the physical processes
associated with the dynamics of space plasmas and electromagnetic fields
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Integration: Science
Sun-Solar System Connections
receives
contributes
• Electrostatics & Charging Processes
Lunar Exploration
SRM1
• Mars Aeronomy and Ionosphere
• Atmospheric Loss; Habitability
Mars Exploration
SRM2
Solar System Exploration
SRM3
• Sun/Climate Connection
• Societal impacts of space weather
processes
• The Sun as a magnetic variable Star
• Fundamental plasma processes
• History of the Solar Wind
• Platforms for investigations of comparative
magnetospheres/ionospheres;
exploration of heliosphere and
interstellar medium
Earth System and Dynamics
SRM9
Exploration of the Universe
SRM8
Primary interfaces involve understanding of the physical processes
associated with the dynamics of space plasmas and electromagnetic fields
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Integration:
Major
Capability Relationships
#1
Integration:
Major
Capability
Relationships
#1
Sun-Solar System Connections
receives
contributes
High Energy
Power & Propulsion
In-Space
Transportation
•
•
•
•
•
Communication
and Navigation
CRM5
Characterization, modeling, and prediction of
planetary environments;
Robotic Access
to Planetary Surfaces
CRM6
Characterization, modeling, and prediction of
planetary environments;
Human Planetary
Landing Systems
CRM7
Human Health
and Support System
CRM8
Human Exploration
Systems & Mobility
CRM9
Characterization, modeling, and prediction of
planetary environments;
•
Development of in-space propulsion such
as provided by solar sails;
•
Space interferometry in UV, and compact
affordable platforms for clusters & constellations
•
High band width deep space communication
CRM3
CRM4
Characterization, modeling, and prediction of
space environments;
High energy power and propulsion to reach
unique vantage points and operate there;
CRM2
Advanced Telescopes
and Observatories
Now-casting and fore-casting of space weather
•
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Integration:
Major
Capability Relationships
#1
Integration:
Major
Capability
Relationships
#2
Sun-Solar System Connections
receives
contributes
Autonomous Systems &
Robotics
CRM10
Transformation
Spaceport/Range
contributes expertise & experience in techniques
for space resource detection and location
In-Situ Resource
Utilization
•
low-cost space access via rockets, secondary
payload accommodation, and low cost launchers;
•
an array of new technologies that enable
affordable synoptic observation program;
•
advanced data assimilation from diverse sources
and advanced model/simulation techniques for
space weather prediction;
•
best practices required across the board;
•
advanced carbon membranes for solar sails;
cross cutting technology beneficial to many
missions;
CRM13
Advanced Modeling/Simulation
/Analysis
CRM14
Systems Engineering
Cost/Risk Analysis
sensor web technology; affordable operations for
constellations
CRM11
Scientific Instruments &
Sensors
CRM12
•
•
CRM15
Nanotechnology
CRM16
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