Transcript activity drivers final presentation

Activity Drivers
ME 449: Sustainable Air Quality
Adam Shaw
Sarah Lahr
Michael Roberts
4/22/02
Overview




Physical activity drivers were assigned to each of the
major pollution categories for which emission and
consumption data was collected.
The data was divided into four major sectors: Industrial,
Transportation, Commercial, and Residential.
Several industrial processes have significant emissions of a
particular pollutant and should be considered separately.
These are included in the XG category.
For areas such as the industrial sector which encompasses
several activities, a major driver was chosen to represent
the entire sector, although it may not directly affect some
aspects of the sector.
Industrial
The industrial activity was measured using the number of passenger car factory
sales. This value fluctuated over time and is currently close to the value in 1950.
This index was selected because it is representative of emission trends of
“big ticket items” of the industrial industry.
# of passenger car factory sales (thousands)
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Transportation

The transportation category was separated according
to the type of fuel used. This broke down the sector
into 4 major categories: Gasoline, Diesel, Airline,
Marine.
– Gasoline was measured by the combined passenger miles of
automobiles, light-duty trucks, and motorcycles
– Diesel was measured by combined ton-freight miles of trucks
and railroad
– Airline activity was measured using passenger airline miles
– Marine activity was measured using marine ton-freight miles
Gasoline Activity
Gasoline Passenger Miles (millions)
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
1950
Gasoline passenger miles have
been rising steadily since 1950.
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Btu/million passenger miles
Despite the constant increase
in passenger miles, the use of
energy per passenger mile
(BTU/mile) has decreased.
6000
4000
2000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Diesel Activity
Diesal ton-freight miles (millions)
3000000.00
The diesel activity, like the gasoline,
has increased steadily over time.
2000000.00
1000000.00
0.00
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Btu/million ton-freight miles
Unlike the gasoline activity, however,
the energy used per passenger mile
(BTU/mile) for diesel has fluctuated
and increased over time.
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Airline Activity
Airline Passenger Miles (millions)
600000
The airline passenger miles have
increased steadily over time.
400000
200000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Btu/million passenger miles
After a peak in the late 1950s
and early 1960s, the energy per
airline passenger mile (BTU/mile)
has decreased and is currently at
an all-time low.
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Marine Activity
Marine ton-freight miles (millions)
The marine ton-freight miles has
fluctuated over time. The was a
peak in approximately 1980, but
since then it has been decreasing.
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Btu/million ton-freight miles
The energy used per ton-freight
mile (BTU/mile) has had varying
values over time. It was declining
until the mid-1980s and since then
has been increasing.
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Commercial Activity
3000000
80
60
2000000
40
1000000
0
1950
20
0
1970
Square feet of
commercial
floorspace
(thousands)
Sale of Consumer
Durable Goods
(millions $)
Commercial Activity Drivers
CE sales of
consumer
durable goods
(millions $)
Floor Space of
Businesses
(1,000 sq ft)
1990
Year
The sale of consumer durable goods has increased steadily since 1950,with a sharply increased
growth rate since the early 1970’s. The amount of commercial floor space has also increased
steadily since 1950, with a small decline in the early 1990’s but at a much slower rate than
the sale of consumer durable goods.
Residential Activity
Number of Occupied Housing Units (MM)
95.00
75.00
55.00
35.00
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
The residential activity was measured by the number of
occupied housing units for each year. The number has risen
steadily since 1950, with no significant peaks of decreases.
Miscellaneous Activities (XG)

The activities that could not be assigned to one of the 4
categories was accounted for in the miscellaneous category.
This consists of 6 categories: petroleum and related industries,
chemical and allied product manufacturing, storage and
transport, waste disposal and recycling, solvent utilization, and
other industrial processes.
– Petroleum and related industries was measured by the refinery output
of petroleum products
– Chemical and allied product manufacturing was measured using the
output of sulfuric acid
– Storage and transport was measured by the combined highway and
railroad ton-freight miles
– Waste disposal and recycling
– Solvent utilization was measured by the asphalt and road oil output
– Other industrial processes was measured using the GDP of private
Petroleum and Related Industries
Refinery Output of Petroleum Products
(MMb/d)
70
60
The refinery output of petroleum
products has been increasing
steadily, with the exception of the
decrease in the early 1980s.
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Chemical and Allied Product
Manufacturing
Sulfuric Acid Production (millions short tons)
Sulfuric acid production had
increased steadily, with only
a few minor fluctuations over
time.
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Storage and Transport
Highway+Railroad ton-freight miles
(millions)
3000000.00
The highway and railroad ton-freight
miles have been increasing over time.
There has been very little fluctuation to
the linear increase.
2500000.00
2000000.00
1500000.00
1000000.00
500000.00
0.00
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Waste Disposal and Recycling
Solvent Utilization
Asphalt and Road Oil Output
0.6
0.5
MMb/d
The output of asphalt and road oil
has increased over time, with
fluctuations between the mid-1970s
and mid 1980s. This output is now
at an all-time high.
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Other Industrial Activity
G D P
of
P r i v a t
(
e
I
mi l l i on s
n dus t
$
r i e s
)
10 0 0 0 0 0
“Other Industrial Activities” include a number
of activities not included in the previous
categories. Since it is not represented by
a single activity, it is difficult to arrive at a
common physical driver. Therefore, this
category is measured against the yearly GDP
of private industries.
0
9 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0
0
19 5 0
19 7 0
Y e a r
19 9 0
Summary
From this data, analysis of how emissions
and energy use relate to changes in
activity will be performed.
 This analysis was started for the
transportation sector.

– For most of the transportation subcategories,
it was found that despite the increase in
activity, the energy used per mile was
decreasing.