Transcript South America

Dell Global Security Conference: Trends
and Forecasts
November 11, 2011
OVERVIEW
• Mexico Situation Update
– Status of the Drug Trafficking Organizations
– Status of Border Areas, Mexico City and Guadalajara
– 2012 Election
• South America
– Argentina Political and Energy Developments
– Brazil Political and Security Developments
• Middle East and North Africa
– Update on the “Arab Spring” – Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco
– Hezbollah and Hamas Status Update
– Israel – Iran Dynamics
MEXICO: Trends in the Cartel Wars
• Current Status and Trends
- The Mexican government and several other cartel
organizations are bearing down on the Zetas.
-Consolidation of Cartel Alliances
-Sinaloa Federation
-Zetas
-”Independent Operators”
-Cartels becoming known as “Transnational Criminal
Organizations” (TCOs), in recognition of the further
diversification of activities into kidnapping, human
trafficking, extortion and other crimes.
MEXICO: AREAS OF CARTEL INFLUENCE
MEXICO: Status of the TCOs
• Zetas are suffering losses – several key
commanders arrested or killed in recent months.
-Not necessarily a game changer – Zetas training
is based on military principles and thus much
more disciplined than other cartels, making
them more resilient.
-Strongest new challenges are being seen in
Veracruz and Monterrey.
• “OpCartel” by Anonymous appears to have
fizzled.
-Despite the Anonymous retreat, there are still
significant risks to independent sources of
information and reporters, as seen by recent
journalist deaths and “Laredo Girl”.
Zetas Tamulipas Commander Edgar
Huerta Montial, arrested in June
2011.
MEXICO: Border Trends
• New deployments of small IEDs, hidden in vehicles in several border areas. These
devices should not be confused with “Columbia-style” VBIEDs.
• Decrease in violence in most border areas, mostly due to the large deployments
of Mexican military forces which has decreased cartel on cartel violence. This
decrease will likely be short lived when military forces depart.
• Continuation of large-scale police infiltration and corruption by cartels.
MEXICO: Mexico City
Mexico City –
-No longer considered neutral – now a “disputed territory”
-Because Mexico City is not yet a center for drug trafficking activity – though it is a
center for more localized drug distribution – it is not considered to be part of the
larger cartel turf wars, though smaller distribution cartels are fighting for the
territory.
-Recent incidents of note –
1. September 2011 – Two female journalists murdered, their bodies found
dumped in a park.
2. October 2011 – Two severed heads were found outside the SEDENA military
office.
-Criminal problems, including various forms of kidnapping, are still a larger
concern than cartel activity.
MEXICO: Guadalajara
• Guadalajara –
-The same transportation infrastructure and location that makes Guadalajara good
for business makes the city good for cartel business.
-Further fighting is expected as the city and region remain disputed by:
1. Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), formerly led by Sinaloa faction
leader “El Nacho Coronel, killed in 2010. (MataZetas, or Zeta killers)
2. Knights Templar, formerly known as La Familia Michoacana (LFM)
3. Cartel Pacifico Sur, led by Hector Beltran Leyva, and allied with Los Zetas.
4. La Resistencia, formerly known as the Milenio or Valencia Cartel
MEXICO: 2012 Presidential Election
• Election for President, Senate and the Chamber
of Deputies to be held on Sunday, July 1, 2012
• Due to constitutional term limits, current
President Felipe Calderon of the National Action
Party (PAN) is not eligible to run.
• Neither PAN, nor the opposition Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) or Party of the
Democratic Revolution (PRD) have announced
their final candidates.
• Despite campaign rhetoric, an “accommodation”
or other agreement with the drug cartels is
unlikely in the next presidential term. Mexican
government policy toward the cartels is likely to
remain very similar to Calderon’s policies.
Mexico President Felipe
Calderon, elected in 2006
MEXICO: Watch Items
• Status of the Los Zetas Organization
– Can they maintain positions in Veracruz and Monterrey?
Continued violence expected
– Will the loss of further commanders hinder their operations?
• Status of the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Genracion (CJNG)
-There are indications the group may be moving from the
“independent operator” column into alignment with Sinaloa. This
could cause more serious escalations in Guadalajara.
SOUTH AMERICA
• Argentina
- Political and Economic Stability
- Energy Infrastructure
• Brazil
– Political Stability and Corruption
– Security Situation
ARGENTINA
-The Argentine government has continual problems
with cash flow, following cash crises in the 1990s. The
Fernandez government has implemented a number of
money saving measures that are impacting businesses:
1. Import Restrictions
2. Decreased Energy Subsidies
3. Planned and Unplanned Power Outages
4. Delayed Infrastructure Improvements
-Most import restrictions are aimed at bringing
production into Argentina. However, recent restrictions
have also been tied to problems with the Argentine tax
authority, the AFIP. While this isn’t typically extortion,
there are reports of this sort of corrupt behavior tied to
AFIP restrictions.
Argentine President
Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner
ARGENTINA Energy and Economic Stability
-Political stability in Argentina is largely tied to
economic stability. As such, government measures that
remove public and social benefits – such as the coming
removal of energy subsidies, due to begin on December
1 – are frequently met with large-scale protests.
-Power and Electricity problems are likely to increase in
coming years as the government has decreased its
spending on needed infrastructure maintenance and
improvements. Additionally, planned “load shedding”
power outages are becoming more common. Often,
these outages are planned in advance, making it
possible to learn of some outages ahead of a loss of
power by using appropriate local connections.
BRAZIL
• Political Stability and Corruption
- Six high-ranking government ministers have
been forced to resign from President Dilma
Rousseff’s administration due to allegations of
corruption. Some instability was expected, but
Rousseff’s quick action has largely been praised
and her popularity remains high.
- The corrupt ministers were identified by a
variety of sources, including investigative
journalism and federal police investigations.
Possible advances in government transparency.
- At least one additional minister may be forced
to resign.