Transcript Border Security Issues After 9/11

Border Security Issues
After 9/11
November 5, 2003
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The ‘Border’ is Complex
 Passenger traffic through numerous
international airports
 Goods and commercial traffic through
national ports
 Traffic over land borders
 Summary observations
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We Worry about a Variety of Things
Actions
 Crime, including people smuggling and drug
smuggling
 Terrorism
Goods and people
 Weapons, particularly weapons of mass destruction
and disruption
 Contraband, including drugs, stolen goods and goods
evading taxes
 People, including potential terrorists
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Airports
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Key Airport Issues
Work done on:
 Physical security (including hardening doors, arming
pilots, transfer of the security function to public
sector)
 Passenger screening and profiling (before airport
entry or boarding plane)
More work needs to be done on:
 Passenger screening and profiling (before entering the
country)
 Air cargo and airport personnel security measures
 Cost effective positive identification (biometric) issues
 Contraband detection
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Ports
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Cargo Containers Have Revolutionized
Global Trade
 Cargo containers are the standard for
shipping merchandise
 Millions of containers in use
 Ports optimized to handle container ships
 Easy transition to ground transportation
modes
 The number of containers passing through US
ports is expected to increase 2-3 fold over the
next 15-20 years
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Cargo Containers Have Revolutionized
Global Trade
 US logistics costs dropped from 16.1% of
GDP in 1980 to 10.1% in 2000
 Annual savings in logistics of foreign trade
approximately $150B
 Security threats and US countermeasures
could reverse these savings
 Shipping costs are sensitive to container costs and
security measures
 Inventories costs are sensitive to supply uncertainty
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Work done on:
Key Port Issues
 Projecting the border outward
 “Know your customer” programs
Much remains to be done on:
 Port personnel
 Contraband detection
 Inspection rates, regimes
 Cost effectiveness analysis
 Understanding how the pieces work together through
simulation modeling
Commercial shipping will be transformed by 9/11 in the same
way air travel was transformed by hijackings
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A Common “Vision” of
Secure Ocean Commerce
 Trusted suppliers at origin of cargo being placed in containers
 Secure container locks, with tamperproof alarms
 Accurate manifests, suitably protected
 Improved visibility of cargo containers throughout supply chain
 Vetted personnel at all transshipment locations
 Secure warehouses
 International cooperation on security procedures and practices
 International sharing of intelligence data
Assertion: Security motives might enable supply chain improvements that
can reduce current logistics costs, even up to 20-30 percent - a “winwin” scenario
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Land Borders
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Key Land Border Issues
 Land borders have most of the same issues
as ports and airports, plus:
 Problems of wide open spaces to patrol
and control
 Research from criminal justice shows that a
very large percentage of deported criminals
reenter the US within a year
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Lessons from Drug Policy
 History suggests border control will be very
difficult
 Drug prices and availability difficult to
affect with border control efforts
 Integration of border control with other
strategies (defense in depth) is necessary
 Economic concerns are valid and very large
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Summary Observations
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Focus on More Effective Resource Allocation
Likelihood of Weapon Importation Across Border Type
People
Nuclear
Radiological
Chemical Biological Conventional
Airports
High
Low
Low
Low
High
Low
Ports
Med.
High
High
Low
Med.
Low
Land
Borders
High
High
High
Low
High
Low
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RAND October 30, 2003
Focus on More Effective Resource Allocation
Likelihood of Weapon Importation Across Border Type
People
Nuclear
Radiological
Chemical Biological Conventional
Airports
High
Low
Low
Low
High
Low
Ports
Med.
High
High
Low
Med.
Low
Land
Borders
High
High
High
Low
High
Low
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There are Also Questions of
Relative Resource Allocations
 With limited resources, where are our dollars best
spent?
 Preventing attacks
 Hardening targets against attacks
 Improving response against attacks
 We can mis-allocate resources if we think about
threats too generically or the ‘port problem’ in
isolation. For example:
 In absolute terms, it makes little sense to think
about inspecting cargo for smallpox because of the
difficulty in finding and identifying it
 In relative terms, better and less expensive policies
such as vaccination of health care workers are
available
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Challenges Can Only be Met Collectively
 National governments
 Concerns: trade flows,
attacks, security
measures
 Data: threats; level of
effort; security
procedures
 Local governments:
 Concerns: facility
revenues,
consequences of
attacks
 Data: users’ price
sensitivity and
willingness to
substitute; security
procedures
 Private sector
 Concerns: security
costs and impact on
business
 Data: profit margins,
security expenditures
 Trade associations
 Concerns: impact on
members; government
regulation
 Data: industry
procedures and trends
 Public
 Concerns: ease of
travel and movement,
cost of goods
 Data: travel patterns
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Challenges Can Only be Met Collectively
 Private sector
 Concerns: security
costs and impact on
business
 Data: profit margins,
security expenditures
 Trade associations
 Concerns: impact on
members; government
regulation
 Data: industry
procedures and trends
 Public
 Concerns: ease of
travel and movement,
cost of goods
 Data: travel patterns
No single party controls all of the relevant information. Parties need to
collaborate to support an integrated assessment
 National governments
 Concerns: trade flows,
attacks, security
measures
 Data: threats; level of
effort; security
procedures
 Local governments:
 Concerns: facility
revenues,
consequences of
attacks
 Data: users’ price
sensitivity and
willingness to
substitute; security
procedures
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