Transcript Document

What is supply reduction and how
could it be monitored it?
Paul Turnbull
EMCDDA: Information needs for an effective
drug policy Conference
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
What I’m going to do
• Why do we need to define and monitor supply
reduction?
• Defining supply reduction
• Consider how it could be monitored
• Offer some concluding thoughts
• Using the example of cannabis in the UK
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
• “The field in general has been weighed down
with conjecture, misinformation, and limited
methodology” Browne (2003)
• “…confounded by the wide geographical arena
involved and the various levels of drug
markets” Dorn (2003)
• Amorphous and dynamic
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Police issue warning about super strength Cannabis !
Cannabis resin, usually smuggled in
from Morocco, has been replaced by
home-grown super skunk as the drug of
choice for sale by criminal gangs on
Merseyside.
Experts warn this new strain of
cannabis is so incredibly strong it can
bring on the early signs of
schizophrenia from a single puff.
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Why define and monitor?
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Major focus of drug policy
Continued massive investment
Better assessment of effectiveness
Need for continued theoretical development
Informing approaches to policing
Informing drug policy
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Defining supply reduction
• Minimize supply, increase the price and reduce
availability to illicit markets
• Aim to achieve this via:
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International/ foreign policy (source country control)
Interdiction
National and local enforcement
Most activity is focused on making drug transactions
difficult
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Defining supply reduction
• In order to assess the impact of supply
reduction activity we need to understand the
interaction between enforcement activity, price
and availability (Moore 1990)
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Enforcement
• Various agencies involved with different aims
and approaches
• Seizures and arrests provide an overview of
‘successful’ enforcement activity
• Most activity is reactive
• Most activity is directed at users
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Enforcement
• Measurable but difficult to interpret
– Collection periods and classification of offences
can vary
– Recording of offences/activities varies
– Represent policing/enforcement priorities
– Difficult to isolate different contributions
• Evidence of link to price and availability?
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Price
• Who is buying and how much they are buying?
• ‘money price’ compared to ‘effective price’?
• Many factors affect price beyond supply reduction
(collapse of a state, demand, weather, labour costs,
etc.)
• Inelasticity (desire and need to use)
• Tastes and availability
• Remarkably variable – place and time
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
“effective pricing”
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Availability
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Population-based surveys
User/ offender surveys
Emergency room admissions
Treatment admissions
Distribution routes/networks
Could indicate success of demand and supply
reduction but difficult to link to enforcement
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Cannabis distribution
• Very poor information on national/regional
distribution networks
• Local distribution ‘fluid’/ fragmented
• Very few ‘open’ street based markets
• Club, pub, college and school
• Majority buy via social networks
• Social supply
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Cannabis enforcement activity
• 186,028 drug seizures in 06/07
• Increase in seizures of 73% since 2004
– Mainly cannabis associated with the introduction
of the warning system (81,311)
– 88 % of all cannabis seized by Customs
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Overview of enforcement activity
• Cannabis seizures:
– 104,007 herbal (up 154% since 2004) a total of
25.7 tonnes
– 30,902 resin (down 21% since 2005) a total of 19.7
tonnes
– 5,497 plant seizures (up 34% since 2005) a total of
344,360 plants
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Cannabis Cultivation Tsar
• Retired Chief Superintendent Mark Matthews
– Collect information, assess the scale of the issue,
develop best practice
– “any premises, whether commercial or residential,
shall be deemed a cannabis farm if the premises
has been adapted to such an extent that normal
usage would be inhibited” = cannabis farm
– Hydroponics, high intensity lighting, electricity
meter bypassed, etc.
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Enforcement activity on cultivation
• Requested information for activity for 07/08
– 50/58 forces ‘discovered’ cultivation
– 5719 production offences were recorded (1,400
charged or convicted - no information on
nationality)
– 3032 farms were identified (94% in domestic
premises)
– 501,905 plants were seized – 20.1 tonnes
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Enforcement activity on cultivation
• “underestimate”
• No force has a strategic approach
• Uncover growing facilities but not drying
facilities or distribution networks
• Most reactive incidents - reported by public,
landlords, some detected heat detecting
equipment, monitoring electricity supply
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
Enforcement activity on cultivation
• Offence = 1or 2 plants to hundreds
• Many offence not ‘crimed’ therefore not
recorded (no victim or offender)
• Unless plants are found can be recorded as
another type of offence
• Crime reports ‘poor’
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
SOME CONCLUSIONS
• Trends in use, supply and production appear to have
little to do with local laws, enforcement or policing
practices
• Imperfect measures; the key to improving measures is
to spend more money on measurement
• Closer working between enforcement agencies and
research/academic communities
• Increase usefulness of enforcement data with outside
periodic auditing
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
‘Follow the money’
Lester Freamon
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction
SOME CONCLUSIONS
• Closer analysis of supply and distribution – network
analysis
• Detailed longitudinal work on markets
• User panels/Expert panels
• Uncertain about individual sources - triangulation
• Consider the role of harms associated with markets
• Basic research needed before we are ready to monitor
EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction