Transcript Drug Use and Drug Policy Futures

DRUG POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
How Goes the War on Drugs?
Martin Y. Iguchi, Ph.D.
RAND DPRC & UCLA School of Public Health
Picture source: LA Times
DPRC
DRUG POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
How Goes the War on Drugs?
Martin Y. Iguchi, Ph.D.
RAND DPRC & UCLA School of Public Health
Picture source: LA Times
DPRC
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
What are we trying to
accomplish?
• A drug free society?
• User reduction?
• Use reduction?
• Harm reduction?
• Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?
Is the “war” metaphor
appropriate?
• What are the implications of “war”?
• Are we winning?
• How can you know?
• What are our benchmarks?
Is the “war” metaphor
appropriate?
• What are the implications of “war”?
• Are we winning?
• How can you know?
• What are our benchmarks?
Is the “war” metaphor
appropriate?
• What are the implications of “war”?
• Are we winning?
• How can you know?
• What are our benchmarks?
Is the “war” metaphor
appropriate?
• What are the implications of “war”?
• Are we winning?
• How can you know?
• What are our benchmarks?
UNODC Andean Coca Surveys 2005
Est. Coca Cultivation
2004
2005
158,000 ha
159,600 ha
Peru
80,000 ha
86,000 ha
Bolivia
27,700 ha
25,400 ha
2004
2005
142,786 ha
170,042 ha
10,399 ha
12,232 ha
8,437 ha
6,073 ha
Colombia
Reported Eradication
Colombia
Peru
Bolivia
Comparison: In 2001 Colombian coffee farms covered 1 million ha
Source: UNODC 2006
Are Interdiction Efforts Successful?
Cocaine production
2004
2005
Colombia
640 mt
640 mt
Peru
190 mt
180 mt
Bolivia
107 mt
90 mt
Colombia (main cities)
188 mt
177 mt
Peru (producing regions)
7.3 mt
2.2 mt
Bolivia (main cities)
0.5 mt
1.3 mt
Europe
79 mt
na
196 mt
na
Cocaine Seizures
United States
Comparison: >170,000 mt of coffee shipped to US every year from Colombia
Source: UNODC 2006
Cocaine Production Factoids
• Cocaine may be grown from cutting or seed - with
harvest after 6-18 months
– 30+ year plant life
• 3-4 harvests per year
• UNODC and Colombian government survey:
– 6,300kg/ha/yr of fresh coca leaf
– Translates to 2,700kg/ha/yr sun dried leaf
– 7.7 kg/ha/yr pure cocaine hydrochloride
Source: UNODC 2006
Cocaine Profit in 1990
• Farmer cost was $700/ha to grow cocaine
• Profit to farmer was $1,600/ha
• Sold on streets in US for $150,000
Source: Caulkins et al. 2005
Enforcement Affects Consumption Through Price
Eradication
Grower
Risks &
Costs
Leaf
Price
Retail Price
Interdiction
Smuggler
Risks &
Costs
Import
-Export
Price
Retail Price
Enforcement
Risks
&
Costs
Retail
Price
Consumption
Prohibition Does Increase the Price of Cocaine
Farm-gate value ($US)
2004
Colombia
2005
$843 M
Peru
$304 M
$307 M
Bolivia
$240 M
$180 M
$1,710/kg
$1,800
$890/kg
$890/kg
$1,800
$1,800
Europe
$45,830/kg
$47,690/kg
United States
$22,070/kg
n/a
Avg Wholesale Price ($US)
Colombia (main cities)
Peru (producing regions)
Bolivia (main cities)
Source: UNODC 2006
Cocaine Prices Declining
1981-2000
6000
Price per pure gram in 1998 dollars
5000
Retail
Wholesale
4000
3000
retail
2000
1000
wholesale
0
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
Source : ABT As s ociate s Inc.
1997
1999
Prohibition Does Increase the Price of Cocaine
Farm-gate value ($US)
2004
Colombia
2005
$843 M
Peru
$304 M
$307 M
Bolivia
$240 M
$180 M
$1,710/kg
$1,800
$890/kg
$890/kg
$1,800
$1,800
Europe
$45,830/kg
$47,690/kg
United States
$22,070/kg
n/a
Avg Wholesale Price ($US)
Colombia (main cities)
Peru (producing regions)
Bolivia (main cities)
Source: UNODC 2006
A Brief Overview of the RAND “Controlling
Cocaine” Model
Cost-effectiveness at reducing cocaine consumption
Prevention (low estimate)
Source country control
Longer sentences, typical dealers
Interdiction
Prevention (middle estimate)
Domestic enforcement, typical dealers
Longer sentences, federal defendants
Federal enforcement
Prevention (high estimate)
Treating heavy users
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Treatment is Most Cost Effective Option by
Several Measures
300
250
200
Treatment
Conventional
Enforcement
Mandatory Min
Sentences
150
100
50
0
Use (kgs)
Spending ($100K)
Crime
Problem Reduction per Million Program Dollars
Different Evaluation Time Horizons Favor Different
Drug Control Strategies
160
Treatment
140
Conventional
Enforcement
Mandatory
Minimum
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15
Years
SOURCE: From Caulkins et al., Mandatory Minimum Drug Sentences, p. 36.
Alcohol and nicotine policies need to be
part of a comprehensive illicit drug control
strategy
• There is significant evidence that alcohol and
marijuana are economic complements, not
substitutes.
• There is additional evidence suggesting that
alcohol and cocaine are economic
complements.
• Cigarettes and marijuana also appear to be
economic complements.
DRUG POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Examining the Impact of Criminalizing
Drug Use on the Health of Minority
Families
Martin Y. Iguchi, Ph.D.
RAND and UCLA School of Public Health
DPRC
In 2005, 35 million Americans (age 12 or
older) committed an illegal act.
In 2005, 35 million Americans (age 12 or
older) committed an illegal act.
They used an illicit drug
In 2005, 35 million Americans (age 12 or
older) committed an illegal act.
They used an illicit drug
Prison Admissions for a Drug Offense
Per 100,000 Adults (Iguchi & Fain, 2006)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
90
19
89
19
88
19
87
19
86
19
85
19
84
19
19
83
0
Picture Source: NY Times
Prison Admissions for a Drug Offense
Per 100,000 Adults (Iguchi & Fain, 2006)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
90
19
89
19
88
19
87
19
86
19
85
19
84
19
19
83
0
Picture Source: NY Times
The Increase in Drug Offender Prison Entries Has
Disproportionately Affected Blacks
100,000
90,000
Black
80,000
Hispanic
70,000
White
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
0
The Disproportion is Even More Dramatic When
Viewed on a Per Capita Basis (per 100,000 Adults)
500
450
Black
400
Hispanic
350
White
300
250
200
150
100
50
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
0
Comparison of Male Drug Offender Prison Entrants
1983 and 1999
• In 1983, roughly 1 in 1,500 adult black males and 1
in 6,900 adult white males entered prison on a drug
offense
• In 1999, roughly 1 in 130 adult black males and 1 in
1,800 adult white males entered prison on a drug
offense
Drug Offender Prison Admissions also Increased
Disproportionately Among Black Women
(rate per 100,000 adult women)
100
90
Black
80
Hispanic
70
White
60
50
40
30
20
10
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
0
Since 1989, Over 50 % of Prison Admissions for Hispanic
Women Have Involved Drug Offenses
60%
50%
40%
30%
Black
20%
Hispanic
White
10%
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
0%
The Prevalence of Drug Use Is Similar Among Blacks,
Whites, and Hispanics
10
9
8
7
6
5
Black
White
Hispanic
4
3
2
1
0
Percentage of population reporting drug use in the prior month (2005)
Source: National Survey on Drug Use and Health
Per Capita Violent Crime Arrests Did Not
Change Much During the Same Time Period
for any Racial/Ethnic Group
Many Cumulative Reasons for Disproportions
Have Been Proposed
• Sentencing disparity - In 1988 Congress decided that 5g crack
would be treated the same as 500g powder - resulting in a 5
year mandatory minimum prison sentence.
– Even though 500g powder = 448g crack
• Enhancement laws (school zones, weapon possession)
• Socioeconomic factors (focus on low income populations)
• Uneven enforcement (profiling)
• Behavioral/environmental vulnerability (public purchase)
• Differences in consumption and offending
• Three Strike Laws exacerbate above effects
We Decided to Shift Focus from Numbers
Incarcerated to Implications for Quality of Life,
Access to Care , and Health Disparities
– During the past decade, many laws were
enacted in the name of public safety that
specifically targeted drug offenders
– A number of unintended consequences of these
laws extends to family members and ultimately
to their communities
– We made a preliminary synthesis of the effects
of these laws, particularly as they apply to
women and children in minority communities
How Might a Felony Drug Conviction Affect
Quality of Life and Access to Care for the
Individual, Family, and Community?
– Children and families
– Health care benefits
– Housing availability
– Access to higher education
– Immigration status
– Employment opportunities
– Political representation
– Drug use and recidivism
Source: Iguchi, London, Forge, Hickman, Fain, Riehman (2002). Elements of well-being affected by
criminalizing the drug User. Public Health Reports, 117(1): S146-S150.
Children and Families of Drug Offenders Are
Likely to Be Affected
– In 1999, an estimated 1.5 million children under
the age of 18 had one or both parents in state or
federal prison
– Black and Hispanic children are much more
likely than white children to have a parent in
prison
Children and Families of Drug Offenders Are
Likely to Be Affected
– Other relevant laws include those mandating
rapid adoption, parental rights termination, or
those that specify imprisonment as ground for
divorce
– Families are dismantled, greater economic and
child care burdens fall to the mother, or if not to
the mother, to relatives and the community at
large
Both Felons and their Families Lose Health and
Welfare Benefits
– Drug felons are permanently barred from
receiving food stamps or Temporary Assistance
to Needy Families (TANF) although 32 states
have modified the ban - using state funds for
drug felons
– In some states (e.g., Missouri), a criminal
conviction can be grounds for losing insurance
coverage
Access to Public Housing is Seriously
Restricted by New Laws
– The “One Strike and You’re Out” legislation of 1996
revised screening and eviction procedures for public
housing
– The law allows housing authorities to consider substance
abuse when making access and eviction decisions. In
2003, 5% denied housing and 6% evicted for drug-related
reasons (GAO, 2005)
– As written, the law encourages consideration of
rehabilitation and drug treatment options
– In practice, public safety is often the overriding
consideration - leaving drug offenders and their families
with few housing options
Higher Education is Less Accessible for
Those With Drug Convictions
– A conviction for drug possession revokes
eligibility for federal education assistance for at
least one year
– A conviction for drug sales revokes eligibility for
at least two years
– Eligibility can be reinstated if student completes
a rehabilitation program and passes two
unannounced drug tests
– In 2003-04 - 41,000 applicants denied loans
(GAO, 2005)
Immigrants Convicted of Drug Felonies Can
Be Deported Without Judicial Review
– U.S. prisons currently house more than 84,000
foreign nationals
– The 1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and
Immigrant Responsibility Act precluded judicial
review of INS decisions
– Since 1996, the INS has greatly increased the
deportation of “aggravated felons” removing
61,093 in 2000
– Drug felonies make up 41 percent of those cases
Employment Options are Seriously Limited
by Drug Conviction
– Earnings potential of non- white-collar workers
appears to be harmed for at least one year after
convicted felons re-enter communities
– Incarceration often occurs during careerbuilding years
– Felons are barred from employment in many
areas, including the military and government
jobs, and are barred from receiving many
licenses and permits
– Lack of employment can also mean a lack of
health care benefits
A Felony Conviction Means the Loss of Political
Power for Minority Communities
– Approximately 3.9 million felons are ineligible to
vote after leaving prison
– More than a third of the disenfranchised are
black
– Approximately 13% of all adult black males in
this country are ineligible to vote
– This loss of political power often translates into
a loss of access to services
Incarceration Does Not Prevent
Further Drug Abuse
– It is unclear how much crime is averted, and
drug use deterred by aggressive policing
policies
– Incarceration does remove a portion of drug
users and their related criminal activity from
communities for an average of 2 years
– Incarceration has little or no positive impact on
illicit drug use after convicted individuals return
to communities
– Returns to prison related to drug use occur at
high rates
We are Treating Drug Abuse as Moral Failure
Requiring Eternal Punishment
– While these policies are meant to benefit society,
in practice many have a harmful impact on
offenders and their families long after they serve
their time in prison
– These effects result in additional burdens for
family members and the community, with
minority communities disproportionately
impacted
– With hundreds of thousands returning to society
from prison, these issues require close attention
A Better Approach Is to Treat Drug Use as a
Public Health Problem
– Increase the availability of drug treatment
programs to users before they are arrested
– Increase the availability of drug courts and
related judicial mechanisms (Proposition 36)
emphasizing treatment before incarceration - and
rehabilitation over punishment
– Facilitate the re-entry of drug offenders into our
communities
Acknowledgements:
• Research Supported by the Robert Wood Johnson
Foundation and the National Institute on Drug
Abuse
• www.burnsinstitute.org (James Bell Executive
Director)
• RAND Colleagues: Jon Caulkins, Peter Reuter, Jim
Chiesa, Andrew Morral, Jennifer London, Terry
Fain, Rajeev Ramchand, Kara Riehman, Rosalie
Pacula, Nell Forge, Dan McCaffrey, Susan Paddock
and many others