Transcript Caution should be used in applying propensity scores estimated in a

Caution should be used in applying
propensity scores estimated in a full cohort to
adjust for confounding in subgroup analyses
Sue M. Marcus, Columbia University
Robert D. Gibbons, University of Chicago
JSM 2012, San Diego
1
Testimony of Andrew Leon:
Medication and Veteran Suicide
• ‘All of us here today
share a common goal: to
do the very best for our
veterans’
• ‘doing the best requires
the discipline to use
empirical methods to
understand optimal
mental health care and
prevention of suicide.’
JSM 2012, San Diego
2
Outline: Caution should be used…
• Context: automated propensity score
analyses of large observational databases
for drug safety surveillence
• When to use caution (Rosenbaum and
Rubin 1983; Marcus and Gibbons 2012)
• Illustration: Do antiepileptic drugs cause
suicide?
JSM 2012, San Diego
3
Drug Safety
• Spontaneous reports collected through
FDA’s Adverse Event Reporting System
• Analysis of large-scale integrated medical
claims data
• Large potential for bias
JSM 2012, San Diego
4
Propensity scores estimated
in full cohort for subgroup?
• If so, one step closer to automated drug
safety system for which separate analysis
for each subgroup is unnecessary
• A correctly specified propensity score
should (at least in expectation) remain
valid in a subgroup population
(Rosenbaum and Rubin 1983)
• When can this go wrong?
JSM 2012, San Diego
5
Illustration: Do AEDs cause suicide?
• 1/2008 FDA alert: AEDs can increase
suicidal thoughts and behaviors
• 7/2008 FDA scientific advisory committee:
association between AEDs and suicidality
• American Epilepsy Society: unintended
dire consequences, do not want to
discontinue effective seizure medication if
it does not cause suicide
JSM 2012, San Diego
6
Causal question?
• AEDs given for bipolar disorder, major
depression, epilepsy, pain disorders,
migraines, alcohol craving, others
• Do AEDs cause suicide or do people with
higher propensity for suicide tend to have
higher propensity to take AEDs?
• Goal: disentangle who takes AEDs from
the biological effect of the drugs
JSM 2012, San Diego
7
Conflicting conclusions following FDA alert
for two propensity–score adjusted analyses
Paper
Gibbons et al
2009
Population
Bipolar Disorder BD, epilepsy,
migraine, pain
Comparison
AED vs no AED Each AED vs
topiramate
Conclusion
AEDs do not
increase SA
JSM 2012, San Diego
Patorno et al
2010
Some AEDs
may have
increased risk
8
AED A (↑BP) vs AED B (↑epilepsy)
• Answers public health question: more
suicide among those who take A vs B?
• Does not address whether cause of
suicide is biological effect of drug or
reflects who is taking drug
• Higher suicide rate for A reflects higher
suicide rate for BP compared to epilepsy
JSM 2012, San Diego
9
Correct specification for full vs subgroup
• Propensity to use drug depends on
different characteristics for different
disorders (eg bipolar disorder vs epilepsy)
• Can we correctly specify propensity for
each subgroup using full cohort?
• Propensity to use AED vs Topiramate does
not balance comparison of AED vs no
treatment for particular disorder
JSM 2012, San Diego
10
Potential Outcomes Framework
• r1= response if AED, r0 = response if no AED
Z = 1 for AED, = 0 for no AED
• in general, E (r1 - r0 ) is not equal to
E (r1| Z = 1) – E (r0 | Z = 0)
• E (r1 - r0 ) may be equal to
E (r1| Z = 1, x) – E (r0 | Z = 0, x)
JSM 2012, San Diego
11
What is being estimated?
• Gibbons et al
E (r1| Z = 1, x, BP) – E (r0 | Z = 0, x, BP)
• Patorno et al
E (r1| Z = particular AED, x, BP or epilepsy or pain)
– E (r0 | Z = Topiramate, x, BP or epilepsy or pain )
• Patorno et al estimate reflects who takes
each AED, rather than biologic effect of
each AED
JSM 2012, San Diego
12
Correctly specified PS?
• Generally more difficult to correctly specify PS
for full cohort when many subgroups have
different processes related to confounding by
indication
• Those with epilepsy have different reason for
choosing particular AED compared to those with
BP and also have different underlying suicide
rates
• Better to analyze each subgroup separately?
JSM 2012, San Diego
13
Covariance adjustment on PS
• Known to perform poorly when PS is
poorly estimated (Rosenbaum and Rubin, 1983;
Marcus and Gibbons 2011)
• Can happen when the variance in the PS
for the treatment group is smaller than for
control (those who receive new treatment
more homogeneous)
• Univariate covariance adjustment can
greatly increase bias (Rubin, 1973)
JSM 2012, San Diego
14
Conclusions
• Potential outcome framework can help to clarify
whether what is being estimated makes sense
• AED vs no AED for single disorder better than
AED 1 vs AED 2 for many disorders
• Goal is to ‘add efficiency to studies with many
subgroups’ which could greatly facilitate
automatic large-scale drug safety screening
• Is this worth the cost of increased bias: ‘stopping
or refusing to start AEDs in epilepsy may result
in serious harm, including death’ Fountoulakis et al 2012
JSM 2012, San Diego
15