Transcript Chapter 24A
Thales of Miletus 624 -547 BC Thales used his skills to deduce that the next season's olive crop would be a very large one. He therefore bought all the olive presses(or options) and then was able to make a fortune when the bumper olive crop did indeed arrive. Thales was gazing at the sky as he walked and fell into a ditch. A pretty servant girl lifted him out and said to him "How do you expect to understand what is going on up in the sky if you do not even see what is at your feet“- the first absent-minded professor joke QUIZ 3 p. Derivatives (definition) Futures vs. Forwards - Definition A) Similarities B) Differences http://video.ca.msn.com/watch/video/hedging-inflation-11-23-10-2-05pm/jvb7iicb?from=gallery_enca_money_investing_related http://www.cmegroup.com/ http://www.pbs.org/itvs/openoutcry/thepit.html P.753 problem 7 1 LO1 The Balance Sheet 2-2 LO1 Income Statement 2-3 Chapter 24 RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL ENGINEERING Chapter Outline Hedging and Price Volatility Managing Financial Risk Forward Contracts Futures Contracts Option 5 Hedging Volatility Volatility in returns is a measure of risk Volatility in day-to-day business factors often leads to volatility in cash flows and returns If a firm can reduce that volatility, it can reduce its business risk Hedging (immunization) – reducing a firm’s exposure to price or rate fluctuations 6 Managing Financial Risk Instruments have been developed to hedge the following types of volatility ◦ Interest Rate ◦ Exchange Rate ◦ Commodity Price Derivative – A financial asset that represents a claim to another asset. It derives its value from that other asset’s price volatility. 7 Interest Rate Volatility Debt is a key component of a firm’s capital structure Interest rates can fluctuate dramatically in short periods of time Companies that hedge against changes in interest rates can stabilize borrowing costs Available tools: forwards, futures, swaps, futures options, and options 8 Exchange Rate Volatility Companies that do business internationally are exposed to exchange rate risk The more volatile the exchange rates, the more difficult it is to predict the firm’s cash flows in its domestic currency If a firm can manage its exchange rate risk, it can reduce the volatility of its foreign earnings and do a better analysis of future projects Available tools: forwards, futures, swaps, futures options, and options 9 Commodity Price Volatility Most firms face volatility in the costs of materials and in the price that will be received when products are sold Depending on the commodity, the company may be able to hedge price risk using a variety of tools This allows companies to make better production decisions and reduce the volatility in cash flows Available tools (depends on type of commodity): forwards, futures, swaps, futures options, and options 10 The Risk Management Process Identify the types of price fluctuations that will impact the firm Some risks may offset each other, so it is important to look at the firm as a portfolio of risks and not just look at each risk separately Cost of managing the risk relative to the benefit derived Risk profiles are a useful tool for determining the relative impact of different types of risk 11 Risk Profiles Basic tool for identifying and measuring exposure to risk Graph showing the relationship between changes in price versus changes in firm value 12 Risk Profile for a Wheat Grower 13 Risk Profile for a Wheat Buyer 14 Reducing Risk Exposure Hedging will not normally reduce risk completely ◦ Only price risk can be hedged, not quantity risk ◦ You may not want to reduce risk completely because you miss out on the potential upside as well 15 Timing Short-run exposure (transactions exposure) – can be hedged Long-run exposure (economic exposure) – almost impossible to hedge, requires the firm to be flexible and adapt to permanent changes in the business climate 16 Forward Contracts A contract where two parties agree on the price of an asset today to be delivered and paid for at some future date Forward contracts are legally binding on both parties They can be customized to meet the needs of both parties and can be quite large in size Because they are negotiated contracts and there is no exchange of cash initially, they are usually limited to large, creditworthy corporations 17 Positions Long – agrees to buy the asset at the future date (buyer) Short – agrees to sell the asset at the future date (seller) 18 Payoff profiles for a forward contract 19 Hedging with Forwards Entering into a forward contract can virtually eliminate the price risk a firm faces It does not completely eliminate risk because both parties still face credit risk Since it eliminates the price risk, it prevents the firm from benefiting if prices move in the company’s favor The firm also has to spend some time and/or money evaluating the credit risk of the counterparty Forward contracts are primarily used to hedge exchange rate risk 20 Hedging with forward contracts 21 Futures Contracts Futures vs. Forwards Futures contracts trade publicly on organized securities exchange Require an upfront cash payment called margin ◦ Small relative to the value of the contract ◦ “Marked-to-market” on a daily basis Clearinghouse guarantees performance on all contracts The clearinghouse and margin requirements virtually eliminate credit risk 22 Swaps A long-term agreement between two parties to exchange (or swap) cash flows at specified times based on specified relationships Can be viewed as a series of forward contracts Generally limited to large creditworthy institutions or companies 23 Types of Swaps Interest rate swaps – the net cash flow is exchanged based on interest rates Currency swaps – two currencies are swapped based on specified exchange rates or foreign vs. domestic interest rates Commodity swaps – fixed quantities of a specified commodity are exchanged at fixed times in the future 24 Option The right, but not the obligation, to buy (or sell) an asset for a set price on or before a specified date ◦ Call – right to buy the asset ◦ Put – right to sell the asset ◦ Specified exercise or strike price ◦ Specified expiration date 25 Seller’s Obligation Buyer has the right to exercise the option, but the seller is obligated ◦ Call – option writer is obligated to sell the asset if the option is exercised ◦ Put – option writer is obligated to buy the asset if the option is exercised Option seller can also be called the writer 26 Hedging with Options Unlike forwards and futures, options allow the buyer to hedge their downside risk, but still participate in upside potential The buyer pays a premium for this benefit 27 Payoff Profiles: Calls 28 Payoff Profiles: Puts 29 Hedging with Options 30 Hedging Exchange Rate Risk with Options May use either futures options on currency or straight currency options Used primarily by corporations that do business overseas Canadian companies want to hedge against a strengthening dollar (receive fewer dollars when you convert foreign currency back to dollars) Buy puts (sell calls) on foreign currency ◦ Protected if the value of the foreign currency falls relative to the dollar ◦ Still benefit if the value of the foreign currency increases relative to the dollar ◦ Buying puts is less risky 31