Transcript "Current US Energy Policy"/Dr. Lester Lave

Current US Energy Policy
Whitehouse says just do more
drilling for oil & gas
Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
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The Era of Cheap Energy is Over
• Environmental concerns: mercury, CO2
• Rising cost of extraction:
– Deep oceans, arctic
– Low quality hydrocabons (oil sands,
heavy oil, coal to liquids, oil shale)
– Hostile or unstable nations
Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
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Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
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Vehicles in the US
900
Vehicles per 1000 people
800
Vehicles in the USA
700
600
500
1.17 cars per
licensed driver
In 2003
400
300
200
100
0
1890
1910
1930
1950
Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
1970
1990
2010
4
Y
ea
r
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
New Vehicle Fuel Economy, 1975-2001
26
24
22
20
18
16
Cars
Light Trucks
14
Fleet Total
12
10
How much should we raise CAFÉ?
Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
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National Security Issues
Why are we sending $300 billion per year to
Iran, Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, etc.?
Lenin: “The capitalists are so hungry for
profits that they will sell us the rope to
hang them with.” …and they will send us
the money to buy the rope!
Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
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Conservation Without Pain
• Improve car fuel economy 50% by hybrids
& new diesels
• Improve building efficiency by 80%
• Improve lighting, AC, etc. by 50%
With no perceptible drop in quality & some
improvements
Why don’t we do it? Energy is too cheap! –
the hidden cost is much higher
Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
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One Solution: Plug-in Hybrids
• USA uses 140 billion gallons of gas/ year
• Equivalent to 200 billion gallons of ethanol
• Hybrid raises fuel economy from 24 to 32
miles/gal => 150 billion gal/yr of ethanol
• Average trips10 miles, 40 miles/car/day
• 20 mile battery charge from plug saves 2/3
of gasoline: need 50 billion gal/yr
• Ethanol from grasses & trees can supply it
• Plug hybrid costs $5-9,000 more - Need a
$80/bbl floor on oil to attract buyers
Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
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What is Sensible Policy?
• Is 1.1 cars per licensed driver enough?
2002
•
•
•
•
•
Denmark
USA
Austria
France
Sweden
BTU/GDP
38
81
55
63
72
BTU/pop
148
333
171
182
244
Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon
GDP/pop
39
38
31
29
34
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