Transcript Presentation of BRICS ministerial meeting on Labour and

Topics for discussion
A. Growth and Employment in the BRICS
B. Enhancing Employability and Skills
C. Creating Employment Opportunities
D. Strengthening Public Employment Services
A1 Synchronous Growth Slowdown
BRICS, GDP Growth Rates 1998-2017
2008-2014
2015
2016*
2017*
6.2
6.6
6.9
7.4
7.4
7.6
7
0.1
1
1.7
RUSSIA
INDIA
CHINA
SOUTH AFRICA
-3.7
-3.3
-3.8
-1.2
BRAZIL
1.3
3.7
0.5
1
1.7
3.2
3
5.8
7.1
8.8
9.9
1998-2007
Source: All estimates are derived from IMF (2016) World Economic Outlook, April and its Update in July 2016. Figures for 2016 and 2017 are projections.
A2 A Tightened Labour Market Situation for the Youth
Total and Youth Unemployment Rates (Latest year available)
60%
50.1%
50%
40%
30%
20%
12.2%
10%
13.4%
17.0%
16.0%
8.1%
0%
BRICS (2015)
World
Brazil (2014) Russian India (2012) China (2014) South Africa
excluding
Federation
(2015)
BRICS (2015)
(2015)
Youth (ages 15-24)
Total (ages 15+)
Source: ILOSTAT and KILM 9th edition for country-level data, ILO, Trends Econometric Models, April 2016 for regional aggregates
A3 Avoiding a Reversal in Employment Quality
Composition of informal employment in the BRICS, in % of total non-agricultural employment
(Latest year available)
90
80
In percentage
17.9
70
Informal employment in both the informal and
formal sectors
Informal employment outside the informal sector
60
50
Informal employment in the informal sector
40
30
66.8
15
12.5
21.7
21.9
Brazil (2013)
China (2010)
20
10
19
25.1
0
India (2012)
Russian Federation
(2012)
South Africa (2015)
Source: ILOSTAT and KILM 9th Edition and data on China and India from ILO, Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture (second edition), ILO: Geneva, 2013a
A4 Uneven Trends in Real Wages
Source: ILO estimates based on national statistics
A5 Premature Deindustrialization?
Labour productivity evolution from 2005 to 2015
RUSSI A
2013
7
2005
10.1
2012
14.4
2005
Industry (%)
22.6
20.4
CHI NA
2013
SO UT H
A FRI CA
2013
62.8
21.4
58
27.8
65.5
29.8
60
47.1
2005
24.8
55.9
31.4
2005
28.1
19
30.1
44.8
5.1
23.6
(GDP per person engaged - constant 1990 US$ at PPP)
Services (%)
25.2
38.4
23.8
31.4
71.2
GDP per person engaged, in constant 1990 US$ at PPP
BRA Z I L
2013
I NDI A
Agriculture (%)
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2005
2005
7.5
25.6
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
66.6
Brazil
China
India
Russian Federation
Source: Labour Bureau for Indian data; ILOSTAT and KILM 9th edition for country-level data, ILO, Trends Econometric Models, April 2016 for regional aggregates
South Africa
B1 Enhancing Employability and Skills

Reform efforts should continue improve the quality and relevance of
TVET and skills systems,

improve access and outreach to support the agriculture sector and
engage with the informal economy;

deliver greater social equity by increasing educational attainment of
women and expanding apprenticeships to target youth NEET;

invest in TVET institutions, managers and trainers to improve quality and
lift the social status of programs and pathways; and

increase measures to promote innovation and productivity growth in
enterprises through on-the-job training.
B2 Anticipating labour market needs and labour force
availability
Technological and structural change drive constant change in skills needs

make TVET and skills development systems responsive to evolving
industry skills needs;

anticipate future needs enabling skills development systems to keep
pace with change, and share good practices in skills anticipation systems;

effective skills anticipation systems promote policy coherence between
ministries ( education , labour and line ministries)

And engage employers, workers’ representatives, skills system
B3 Anticipating labour market needs and labour force
availability – examples of good practices from BRICS
Some opportunities to learn between BRICS countries

Sectoral approaches led by industry towards achieving sectoral vision
(e.g. SETAs in South Africa, SSCs linked to NSDA in India)

Technology foresight in skills needs anticipation (e.g. Russian Federation
inter-ministerial collaboration)

A shared vision for the industry / economy (SENAI’s “Antenas
Thematicas” in Brazil)

China State Council’s Decision to Push Ahead the Development of
Modern Vocational Education
C 1 Employment generation: An integrated policy approach
Pro-employment macroeconomic policies and economic diversification
strategies

Avoid excessive public expenditure cuts and use available fiscal space and
fiscal policy : to increase well-targeted investments in infrastructure, quality
public services to support aggregate demand and enhance productivity and
labour market policies in particular for youth

Industrial policy, value chain upgrading and economic diversification

Promote financial exclusion for SMEs

Wage policy and social protection to stabilize economy and combat inequality
and exclusion
C2 ALMPs in BRICS

All the BRICS implement active labour market programmes addressing
women, youth, rural poor and migrants

Successful examples: public employment programmes (EPWP in South Africa,
NREGA in India); labour market training (Brazil’s Estação Juventude) ; selfemployment support and entrepreneurship (PROGER in Brazil, Russia’s TVET
program); and youth employment subsidies (China, South Africa)

Evidence that well-designed targeted interventions enable target groups to
gain foothold in the labour market: more impact assessment needed
including the spillovers for the local economy

Design, implementation and monitoring matter .
D1 Strengthening Public Employment Services
• BRICS have graduated from basic to intermediate level of PES
service provision but differentiation of services remains low
and individualised services are rare.
• The market penetration rates remain very low
• In all countries, the use of e-services has been adopted
• Only Brazil and India have ratified the Employment Services
Convention, 1988 (No.88).
D2. Public Employment Services –current challenges

the capacity for the provision of a full range of services and
outreach to vulnerable groups

ensuring policy coherence, coordination and service integration

Finding sustainable means of financing PES and ALMPs

Promoting partnerships and ensure decent work through
progressive regulation of private employment agencies
D3 Policy coherence , coordination and service integration
• PES and ALMPs are part of a comprehensive employment policy
framework and must operate in synergy with broader
macroeconomic and sectoral policies;
• China has a highly coordinated system, in other countries more
deliberate efforts are required to strengthen policy coherence at
macro, sectoral and labour market levels.
• Coordination and integration are also needed to avoid
fragmentation and duplication of service provision.
D4 Sustainable funding
• A sustainable financing system is vital for PES (and ALMPs)
to be effective.
• Experience in BRICS vary from state funding at the central
level in South Africa to local funding in India to multiple
funding in China,Brazil and Russia
D5 Public-Private Partnerships
• Partnerships can be necessary in order to expand the outreach of
employment services
• All BRICS cooperate to different extent, with private and non profit
providers at national and local levels. China has the largest share of global
staffing industry revenue(23%) followed by Brazil (7%) (CIETT, 2015)
• The role of private employment providers - esp. temporary agency work remains a sensitive issue. Efforts are underway in all BRICS to develop
appropriate legal systems
• None of the BRICS countries have ratified the Private Employment
Agencies Convention, 1977 (No. 181)
• Social dialogue should be promoted to adopt a balanced system
Summary: innovative policies for sustaining
employment and growth
In the context of economic slowdown : innovative policies including anti-cyclical
measures, as well as long term measures addressing structural changes and economic
diversification can help maintain achievements and improve labour market outcomes
including through:
•
Pro-employment macroeconomic policies to sustain demand and enhance productivity

Strategies to support private sector productive investment and facilitate transition to
formality;

Well-designed and targeted active labour market policies for employability, skills
development and entrepreneurship especially for women and youth;

Stronger employment policy support systems eg employment services systems
Meeting of the Ministers of Labour and Employment
of BRICS countries
27-28 September 2016