Transcript ICUCourseCameron

ICU Course
Dr Fraser Cameron
The State of the Union
• Political Crisis due to failure to ratify
constitutional treaty (France and NL)
• Budget fight ($100billion) 1.04% GDP
• Economy / which model? Anglo-Saxon,
Nordic, Rhineland, New Member States
• Lisbon Agenda (to make EU most
competitive economy by 2010)
• Enlargement – Turkey $64,000?
EU as a Global Actor
• Interaction between internal and external
policies eg coal and steel, agriculture,
environment, internal market
• Values eg democracy, human rights, death
penalty, ICC, Kyoto
• Neighbourhood top priority
• EU/US > Friends or Rivals?
• EU and “effective multilateralism”
Development of CFSP
• European Political Cooperation
• 1992 Maastricht Treaty / CFSP
• 1997 Amsterdam Treaty (Solana as High
Representative)
• 2001 Nice Treaty (Political and Security
Committee, Military Committee)
• Joint Actions, Common Positions
The EU and the Balkans
• 1991 break up of Yugoslavia “the hour of
Europe”
• 1995 Dayton / US settlement
• 1999 Kosovo / US bombing
• 2003 Thessalonika Road Map
• How many countries? Serbia? Kosovo?
Montenegro? Croatia, Macedonia, Albania,
Bosnia
Towards ESDP
•
•
•
•
CFSP needs armed forces
Kosovo < St Malo Anglo/French accord
1999 Helsinki Headline Goals
60,000 troops ready in 30 days for 12
month peacekeeping deployment
• Capabilities
• European defence agency
• EU/NATO relations
Enlargement of the EU
•
•
•
•
•
1973 UK, Denmark, Ireland
1984 Greece
1986 Spain and Portugal
1995 Sweden, Austria, Finland
2004 Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland,
Slovakia, Czech republic, Hungary,
Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus
Enlargement (2)
• Future candidates ; Macedonia, Turkey,
Croatia, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland,
• Western Balkans (Albania, Serbia
[Kosovo, Montenegro], Bosnia/Herzogivina
• Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan
• Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine
• Deepening v Widening
• Can EU cope with 40 members?
European Neighbourhood Policy
• Consequence of last enlargement
• Aimed at creating “ring of friends”
• East = Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus,
Caucasus
• South = Mediterranean partners
• Action Plans ; involvement in EU policies
• Finance? Institutions?
The EU and the Middle East
• EU united behind UN resolutions after
1967 war
• More willing to see Palestinian view
• Close but difficult relationship with Israel
• Barcelona process 10th anniversary
• Association agreements
• Security issues (demography, radical
Islam, environment, economic failure)
Transatlantic relations
•
•
•
•
EU and US biggest trade partners
$one billion a day relationship
End of Cold War changed paradigm
Disputes on Balkans, Middle East, Iran,
Iraq, ICC, Kyoto
• But still closest relationship
• New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) 1995
• Bush very unpopular in Europe
EU/Asia
• EU trying to promote regional integration,
ASEAN, SARCC, ASEM
• EU model not easily transferable
• Differences on sovereignty, human rights,
eg Burma
• Fascination with China; huge growth in
trade relations (but US suspicious eg arms
embargo)
EU:Asia (2)
•
•
•
•
EU/Japan Action Plan, what action?
Japan perceived as totally in US camp
EU/Korea, mainly trade based
EU/India, growing fast, recognition of India
as regional, maybe global actor
• ASEAN, East Asia Community, what
future?
The EU and Global Governance
• EU stands for “effective multilateralism”
but what does it mean?
• Strong support for UN but problem of
UNSC, German ambitions for a seat (US
only supporting Japan)
• High/level Panel, many useful ideas eg
Peacebuilding Commission
• WTO / IMF / World Bank / G8< reforms?
EU and Development Aid
• EU largest donor in the world
• Main targets Africa and Asia
• Special responsibility as former colonial
empires
• Many special relationships eg Belgium and
the Congo, Portugal and Angola
• Good governance key issue
The EU and the UN
• EU/UN relations developing fast
• Crisis management main focus
• EU very supportive of Kofi Annan’s reform
agenda and Millenium Summit goals
• But UNSC divisive issue
• Regional bodies in UN system?
Constitutional Treaty
• Provides for EU foreign minister and EU
foreign service with EU missions
• Legal personality for Union
• Structured cooperation in defence
• Solidarity clause
• Permanent president of the Council
• More coherence, visibility, effectiveness
Member States and the CFSP
• CFSP/ESDP highly sensitive
• Unlikely to change to community method
• Many special ties, different histories,
traditions, capabilities, interests
• But working through EU better than trying
to go it alone, slow process
• Danger of a ‘directoire’ < but ad hoc
groups eg on Iran acceptable
Conclusions
• CFSP/ESDP very new policy areas
• Hardly ten years old / political will slow to
develop
• But Solana now widely regarded as ‘EU
foreign policy chief’
• What ambitions for CFSP? Real global
actor? Military capabilities? Able to look
after own security?