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Manifesto Assessment
Presentation by
Hubert Nii-Aponsah
Isidore Kpotufe
Brian Dzansi
6th October, 2016
Introduction
• Democracy insists that the power to rule resides in the people.
• The people choose a leader based on various issues including what
the leader promises them.
• Democracy also insists that the people their hold government
accountable.
• In this spirit, the Imanifesto assessment examines the ruling party’s
performance vis-a-vis promises in its stated manifesto.
2
Objectives
• It aims at helping voters to make more informed political choice
• It aims at assisting political parties to become more self-reflexive,
accountable, and in turn, help them espouse more truthful and
realistic political visions
3
Methodology
• Caveat: Output-based Assessment Vs Impactbased Assessment
4
Methodology
• The Methodology was developed following 4 steps.
• Step One: Setting Out the Yardstick; ‘Advancing the Better Ghana
Agenda’
• The promises in the manifesto are the standards based on which the
performance of the NDC government is assessed. They are listed.
E.g. A GH¢10 million Youth Jobs & Enterprise Development Fund will be
set up under the direct supervision of the Presidency...
5
Methodology
• Step Two: Identification of themes for the formulation of the framework.
• Putting People First (theme 1), A Strong and Resilient Economy (theme 2), Expanding
Infrastructure (theme 3), and Transparent and Accountable Governance (theme 4)
• Human Capital Investment (assessment of education and capacity building promises
under theme 1), Social Policy (assessment of social investment under theme 1), Economy
(assessment of promises under theme 2), Infrastructural Development (assessment of
promises under theme 3) and Governance (assessment of the promises under theme 4).
• Putting the People First was divided into two: Human Capital Investment and Social
Policy.
6
Methodology
• Step 3: Framework
Weights were chosen based on literature review: consideration of various studies
including the eleven (11) dimensions of well-being as defined by the Compendium
of OECD Well-being Indicators (2011) etc.
7
IMMA SCALE
Methodology
• Step four: Scoring and Aggregation. SAMPLE below
Theme
Section
Manifesto Promise
Is it implemented? If yes, assign Reason/Evidence for the assigned Score
1 ; if no, assign 0; if partial,
assign a fraction
Theme 1
Youth Development
A
GH¢10
million
Youth
Jobs
&
1
The YES (Youth Enterprise Support) initiative was
Enterprise Development Fund will be
launched in 2014 with a seed fund of 10million
set up under the direct supervision of
GHS after the President revealed in the initiative
the Presidency...
in his 2014 State of the Nation. Find more
information at
Theme 2
An
overall
budget
0
The 5% of GDP overall budget deficit promise for
each year was not attained. There were
recorded overall budget deficits of 11.6%,
11.0%, 10.3%, 6.7% respectively from 2012 to
2015. The target for 2016 is 5.3% > 5.0%
(according to BoG Annual report 2015 and 2016
Budget)
0.73
Installed capacity as at September 20th 2016
deficit equivalent to
5.0 per cent of GDP
Theme 3
Energy for Growth
Increase installed power generation
capacity from 2,443 in 2012 to 5,000
megawatts by 2016.
http://www.yes.gov.gh/faq
was 3,644MW (VRA website)
Step four: Scoring and Aggregation
• First, desktop research to ascertain scores
• Secondly, validation exercise with various MDAs
• Those who could not be present sent their reports subsequently.
ECONOMY IN PERSPECTIVE
• OVERALL SCORE FOR INDICATOR – 43.9%
• ASSIGNED WEIGHT – 25%
• ON THE IMMA SCALE – WEAK
• NUMBER OF PROMISES FOR INDICATOR – 211
• RECLASSIFIED BY IMANI INTO 41 THEMES
• HIGH SCORES ON SUB-THEMES OF ROAD & SAFETY TASK FORCE, SECURITY, RURAL
AND AGRICULTURE FINANCE
• FAILED SUB-THEMES INCLUDING, MAINTENANCE OF ROBUST MACROECONOMY,
FINANCIAL SERVICE DEVELOPMENT, MONETARY POLICY, STABILITY IN INFLATION,
WESTERN CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
Economy......43.9%
Progress towards completion
The Creative Industry
Accelerated Infrastructure Provision
ICT and Business Operartion Outsourcing
Graduate Business Support Scheme
Road safety Taskforce
SADA afforestation and other investment program
Rural and Agricultural Finance program
Metropolitant, Municipal and District Assembly
Rivival of key companies
Work for Happiness
Manufacturing
Forest
The Private Sector
Agriculture finance
Poultry and Livestock
Irrigation
Cotton
Staple Crops
Fisheries
Fiscal Policy
Maintaining Robust Macro-Economic Fundamentals
0
20
40
60
80
100
ECONOMY – DISCUSSION POINTS
• KEY “FAILED/UNKEPT” PROMISES:
• MAINTENANCE OF AN AVERAGE ECONOMIC GROWTH
RATE OF 8%PER ANNUM.
• MISSED AND CONSISTENTLY DECLINED FROM 9.3% IN 2012
TO ABOUT 3.9% AT CLOSE OF 2015
• SINGLE DIGIT INFLATION
• HAS BEEN IN EXCESS OF 15 %. CURRENTLY AT 16.7%
• REDUCE FISCAL DEFICIT TO 5% PERCENT OF GDP
• OVERALL BUDGET DEFICITS OF 11.6%, 11%, 10.3%, 6.7% FOR
2012, 2013, 2014, AND 2015, AND PROJECTED TO BE MORE
THAN 5.3% AT CLOSE OF 2016
ECONOMY – DISCUSSION POINTS
• INCREASE INCOME PER CAPITA TO US$ 2,300 FROM US$ 1700 BY 2017
• IMPROVE GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVE TO COVER 4 MONTHS OF
IMPORT
• AGI CONSISTENTLY REPORTS CONSTRAINTS VIA TAXES
• FAILURE ON INDUSTRIALIZATION
• INTEGRATED PETROLEUM INDUSTRY BASED ON BAUXITE, FERTILIZER FACTOR,
PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY BASED ON SALT AND NATURAL GAS.
• KETA SALT INDUSTRIAL ESTATE UNCOMPLETED, KOMENDA IMPLEMENTED,
VALCO OPERATING UNDER CAPACITY, ABOSO GLASS FACTORY AND OTHER
COMPANIES ABANDONED FOR YEARS.
• Y.E.S LAUNCHED, SADA ESTABLISHED, JOB CREATION SUBJECT TO CDB
HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN
PERSPECTIVE
• OVERALL SCORE FOR INDICATOR – 69.4%
• ASSIGNED WEIGHT – 15%
• ON THE IMMA SCALE – GOOD
• NUMBER OF PROMISES FOR INDICATOR – 59
• RECLASSIFIED BY IMANI INTO 12 THEMES
• HIGH SCORES ON SUB-THEMES: NON FORMAL EDUCATION, DISTANCE
LEARNING AND OPEN SCHOOLING
• LOW SCORE SUB-THEMES :SECONDARY SCHOOL EDUCATION, QUALITY OF
TEACHING AND LEARNING.
Human Capital Investment.....(69.4%)
Progress towards completion
Linkages with Industry
64.0
Science and Technical Education
65.0
Quality of Teaching and Learning
58.0
Teachers
60.0
Non-Formal Education
100.0
Distance Learning and Open Schooling
100.0
Polytechnics and Universities
67.7
Colleges of Education
66.7
Vocational and Technical Schools
65.0
Secondary (Second Cycle) Education
54.3
Primary and Junior High School Education
69.1
Early Childhood Care and Development
62.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
HCI– DISCUSSION POINTS
• KEY “FAILED/UNKEPT” PROMISES:
• CONSTRUCT TWO HUNDRED (200) NEW COMMUNITY DAY SENIOR HIGH
SCHOOLS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH EMPHASIS ON DISTRICTS WHERE
THERE ARE NO SUCH SCHOOLS
• ONLY 10 SCHOOLS HAS BEEN COMMISSIONED BY THE PRESIDENT. 113
SCHOOLS ARE AT VARIOUS LEVEL CONSTRUCTION
HCI– DISCUSSION POINTS
• ELIMINATE THE REMAINING 60% OF IDENTIFIED ‘SCHOOLS-UNDERTREES:
A total of 2,031 schools under Tress out of 2,936 identified have been
eliminated/completed and handed over for use by the beneficiary
schools as at June,2016.
• Continue the provision of infrastructure for the Universities of Health
and Allied Sciences and Energy and Natural Resources;
President John Dramani Mahama on Thursday November 19, 2015
inaugurated the new and permanent campus for the University (UHAS)
at Sokode Lokoe near Ho in the Volta Region.
Governance: 50.7% - Fair
GOVERNANCE.......50.7%
Progress towards completion
GOVERNANCE
85
IN DEFENCE OF OUR TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY
90
GOVERNANCE INFRASTRUCTURE
45
NATIONAL SECURITY
49
GENDER EQUITY & EMPOWERMENT OF WOMEN
52
INTENSIFY PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM
75
ENHANCING PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY
15.7
NARCO-TERRORISM
33.8
POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND IMMORALITY
THE RULE OF LAW AND JUSTICE
DECENTRALIZATION AND LOCAL GOVERNANCE
ROLE OF PARLIAMENT
8.3
43.3
60
Thematic Areas
Fighting
Corruption
National
Security
Territorial
Integrity
Governance
Infrastructure
Public Sector
Reform
Role of
parliament
Thematic Areas – Cont.
Narco-Terrorism
Rule of Law and
Justice
Public Service
Delivery
Decentralisation
and Local
Governance
Gender
Execution rates
• NDC performed poorly under the following thematic areas:
Fighting Corruption – 33.8%
Narco-Terrorism – 15.7%
The rule of Law and Justice – 8.3%
Execution Rates
• NDC performed somehow fairly in the following:
Governance Infrastructure – 90%
Territorial Integrity – 85%
Public Service Delivery – 75%
Poor Executions
Promise: The internal audit system will be revamped under a revised Internal
Audit Agency Act to make it more effective to combat corruption and wastage
Action: There’s no evidence of the revamping of the Internal Audit System.
Internal Audit Agency Act has also not been revised. Indeed, a study
conducted by IMANI this year based on the latest Auditor General Report
indicates that Ghana lost about GHC5.9bn in 3 years (About GHC 2bn-3bn
annually).
Poor Executions – Cont.
Promise: Make (Narcotics Control Board) NACOB a security agency to enable it collaborate
effectively with the other security agencies in dealing with drug traffickers
Action: NACOB has not been converted into a security agency. The International Narcotics
Control Board (INCB) Report 2015 launched in Accra earlier this year indicate that Ghana is
used by traffickers to smuggle cocaine and other drugs into Europe (Which means there’s
still a high demand for narcotic products in the country)
Poor Executions – Cont.
Promise: Complete the permanent campus
for the Ghana Institute of Journalism at
Okponglo, Accra in order to expand and
improve facilities for the training of
journalists.
Action: Government has failed to honour its
promise regarding the new site at Okponglo.
However, the Institute completed some new
blocks from the school's internally-generated
funds.
Good executions
Promise: Improve women’s representation on all public Boards
Action: To some a large extent government has honored this promise.
Appointments made under Pres. Mahama:
 Mrs. Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, Ghana's Ambassador and Permanent Representative to
the United Nations, the first time in the history of the country
 Madam Grace Francisca Adzoe, the Controller and Accountant General,
 Mrs Matilda Baffour-Awua, Director General of the Ghana Prisons Service,
 Dr. Philomena Nyarko, Government Statistician
 Dr Angela El-Adas, Director General of the Ghana AIDS Commission.
 Mrs. Charlotte Osei, Chair of Ghana's Electoral Commission (EC)
Social Policy: 52.2% - Fair
Social Policy......52.2%
Progress towards completion
SAVANNAH ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (SADA)
23%
SPORTS DEVELOPMENT
42%
YOUTH DEVELOPMENT
36%
CHILD LABOUR AND STREET CHILDREN
50%
WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT
36%
CHILD DEVELOPMENT
43%
THE AGED
53%
PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES
30%
HARMONIZED SOCIAL PROTECTION
52%
PENSIONS FOR A DECENT RETIREMENT
60%
NATIONAL AMBULANCE SERVICE
5%
NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE SCHEME (NHIS)
69%
MENTAL HEALTH
80%
NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES
33%
NUTRITION
15%
EXPANDED PROGRAMME ON IMMUNISATION
84%
MALARIA
85%
TRADITIONAL MEDICINE
100%
HIV/AIDS
60%
TRAINING OF NURSES
48%
HEALTH FOR ALL
69%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
21 Thematic Areas
1. Health For All
11. National Ambulance Service
2. Training Of Nurses
12. Pensions For A Decent Retirement
3. Hiv/Aids
13. Harmonized Social Protection
4. Traditional Medicine
14. Persons With Disabilities
5. Malaria
15. The Aged
6. Expanded Programme On Immunisation
16. Child Development
7. Nutrition
17. Women’s Empowerment
8. Non-Communicable Diseases
18. Child Labour And Street Children
9. Mental Health
19. Youth Development
10.National Health Insurance Scheme (Nhis)
20. Sports Development
11.Savannah Accelerated Development
Authority (Sada)
Execution rates
• The NDC performed well in the following
 Traditional Medicine – 100%
 Fighting Malaria – 85%
 Expanded Programme On Immunisation – 84%
Execution rates – Cont.
• The NDC performed poorly in the following
National Ambulance Service – 5%
Nutrition – 15%
Savannah Accelerated Development Authority (Sada) – 23%
Good Executions
Promise: ‘Establish new district hospitals and more polyclinics in each of the ten regions’
Action: Construction of new hospitals and polyclincs in 5 regions, rehabilitation of a
hospital in another 2 regions is ongoing, and construction of hospitals as part of the
EUROGNET project in the other 3 regions is ongoing
Promise: ‘Introduce instant NHIS card issuance to address the inherent challenges in the
current ID Card management regime’
Action: Biometric cards are issued instantly now and have been in place since 2014.
Estimated that 17 million have been issued since 2014
Poor Executions
Promise: ‘The next NDC Government will procure additional ambulances for the national
Ambulance Service to establish an Accident Evacuation Service along the major road
corridors’
Action: In 2010, the National Ambulance Service had 160 ambulances and 130 service
stations. By Feb 2016, there were reported to be 165 ambulances. The CEO of the National
Ambulance Service estimates that Ghana needs at least 1,000 ambulances to serve the
whole nation. There is also no evidence of an Accident Evacuation Service
Poor Executions
Promise: ‘We will support Teaching Hospitals and selected district hospitals to provide the
necessary curative care for all identified early cases of cancer.’
Action: There is no cancer registry or evidence of this.
Promise: ‘The newly passed National Health Insurance Bill now gives us the requisite
impetus to vigorously broaden and expand our national health care scheme for the
benefit of all Ghanaians’
Action: The amended bill was passed in Sept 2015. But it can’t be said whether the
scheme has vigorously broadened and expanded the national health care system as
Active NHIS Membership was 33% in 2011 and estimated active membership was
38% in Feb 2016
Infrastructure
Energy
(20)
119
Housing
(22)
ICT(22)
Water and
Sanitation(29)
Transport
(26)
Infrastructure: 55% (Fair performance)
Maritime and Riverine Transport
Aviation
Railways
Feeder Roads
Urban Roads
Highways
Road Infrastructure
Sanitation
Rural Water
Urban Water
Water Resources Management
Slum Upgrading and Prevention
Rural Housing
Urban Housing
Rural Development
Urban Development
Housing development
ICT
Knowledge evolution
Renewable Energy
Oil and Gas Development
Power
50.00%
90.00%
70.00%
57.50%
70.00%
66.00%
70.00%
30.00%
28.83%
51.67%
38.57%
Series1
0.00%
0.00%
26.67%
75.00%
40.00%
52.00%
48.00%
75.00%
33.33%
30.00%
76.25%
68.98%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Energy for Growth (60.64%)- Good
performance
Renewable Energy
30.00%
Oil and Gas Development
76.25%
Power
0.00%
Series1
68.98%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Information, Communication, Technology (63.64%)- Good performance
ICT
75.00%
Series1
Knowledge evolution
0.00%
33.33%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Housing (40%)- weak performance
Slum Upgrading and Prevention
0.00%
Rural Housing
26.67%
Urban Housing
75.00%
Series1
Rural Development
40.00%
Urban Development
52.00%
Housing development
0.00%
48.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Water and Sanitation (35.52%)- Poor
performance
Sanitation
30.00%
Rural Water
28.83%
Series1
Urban Water
51.67%
Water Resources Management
0.00%
38.57%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Transport (68%)- Good performance
Maritime and Riverine Transport
50.00%
Aviation
90.00%
Railways
Feeder Roads
Urban Roads
Highways
Road Infrastructure
70.00%
Series1
57.50%
70.00%
66.00%
70.00%
Final Score: 52.9% - Fair