Transcript Research in Social Stratification and Mobility

Society and Technology: PostIndustrial Societies
Agenda:
Attendance
Announcements and Reminders
Lecture: Post-industrial societies
Announcements and Reminders
• Quiz 2 next Tuesday
• Analysis Paper 1: Due 7/14
Lecture Overview
• From Industrial to Post-Industrial Society
– Demographic Changes
– Workforce Changes gender education gap
activity
– Distributional Changes  stratification activity
Demography
• The study of populations
– Mortality, marriage, fertility, living arrangements,
health
Demographic Transition Theory
Stage 1: Pre-Modern
High Birth Rate
High Mortality
CBR = Birth Rate
CDR = Death Rate
Demographic Transition Theory
Stage 2: Industrializing
High Birth Rate
Declining Mortality
-Public Sanitation
-Medical Technology
-Increased family
resources
CBR = Birth Rate
CDR = Death Rate
Demographic Transition Theory
Stage 3: Mature
Industrial
Declining Birth Rate
-Children as cost, not
resource (child labor
laws)
-Declining Mortality
CBR = Birth Rate
CDR = Death Rate
Demographic Transition Theory
Stage 4: PostIndustrial
Steady Birth Rate
Steady Mortality
CBR = Birth Rate
CDR = Death Rate
Children Per Woman by Country
Source: CIA World Factbook
Recent demographic change in the U.S.
• Race/ethnicity
• Marriage
• Birth of first child
Average Age of First Marriage
(U.S. Census)
30
28
26
Men
24
Women
22
20
18
1900
1920
1940
1960
New life stage: the “single 20s”
1980
2000
Age of first child for American women
1963-2007
Source: U.S. Census
My Research
• Nau, Michael, Randy Hodson and Rachel
Dwyer. “Can’t Afford a Baby?: Debt and Young
Americans.” Forthcoming in Research in Social
Stratification and Mobility.
• Are student loans a cause of delayed fertility?
Data and Methods
• Data: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth –
1997 Cohort (NLSY97)
• Methods: Event History Analysis
– Onset of risk at age 16  predicting transition to
parenthood among women
Key Take Away: Student Loans Delay
Fertility for Women
Workforce Changes
Greater Demand for Service Jobs
(Source Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Employment by Sector (in thousands)
120,000
100,000
80,000
All other Private
60,000
Manufacturing
40,000
20,000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Post-industrial Education
Source: Current Population Survey
Disparities in Educational Attainment
by Gender: What do you think?
• Groups of 3-5, names on paper
Social Stratification
• The study of “who gets what and why”
– Power
– Income
– Wealth
– Prestige
• How has the shift to a post-industrial society
affected stratification patterns?
Basic Fact: Inequality is Rising
Source: Thomas Piketty
Basic Fact: Inequality is Rising
But Why?
• Care economy
• Labor Market De-Institutionalization
• Financialization
• Political Representation
The Care Economy
Contribution of Growth of Care
Work Jobs to Job Polarization,
1983-2007
61%
41%
23%
1
2
3
4
5
Care-based Occupations
Nurturant Care Work
Reproductive Labor
Physicians $$$$$$
Housekeepers $
Dentists $$$$$$
Cooks $
College Professors $$$$
Laundry workers $
Child Care Workers $
Food counter and fountain workers $
The College Wage Premium
Labor Market De-Institutionalization
• The decline of “equalizing institutions”
Changing Distribution of Economic
Productivity:
From Fordism to Income Stagnation
Growth of real hourly compensation for production/nonsupervisory workers and
productivity, 1948–2011
Source: Economic Policy Institute
Union Strength and Income
Distribution
Financialization
• Transition from
commodity
production to
financial activity
• Growing
importance for
debt for
economic growth
Debt Growth  Economic Growth
R = 0.64
Total Debt as Proportion to GDP
Personal Sector Debt as Proportion of
GDP
Non-Financial Corporate Debt to GDP
Financial Sector Debt as Proportion of
GDP
Government Debt as Proportion of
GDP
Financialization and Inequality:
My Research
Nau, Michael. 2013. “Economic Elites,
Investments, and Income Inequality.” Social
Forces 92:437-461.
Data: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer
Finance, Flow of Funds
Data and Methods
Political Representation:
Money in Politics
• Nobody likes congress,
regardless of party
• A crisis (9/11) is needed for the
U.S. Federal government to be
popular
Political Representation: Incumbents
We “hate the bums,
but can’t throw them out”
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
Their “war chests”
are just too big
(Average campaign expenditures for successful challengers)
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
*Large donors are less than 1% of the voting-eligible population
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
Political Representation:
2 parties, same status quo?
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
Martin Gilens, Affluence & Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power
So What?
• When is inequality good, when is it bad?
• How much inequality is “just right”?
Inequality: Bad?
• Income, wealth may not be linked to merit
• Social cohesion
• Declining social mobility- “the American
Dream” at risk?
Inequality: Good?
• Motivation for hard work, risk-taking
• Incentive to obtain more training / education
• Reward for increased responsibility
What do you think?
• Design your own stratification system
• Groups of 3-4
• Names on paper
• Prepare a 1-2 minute informal presentation
Inequality in the Contemporary U.S.
Wrap-Up
• The shift from an industrial to a post-industrial
society has meant declining fertility, delayed
marriage and a “gender education gap”
Wrap-Up
• Greater demand for
– child care
– Care for the elderly
• Increased importance of education and health
care sectors
• But rising inequality – a potential problem
Done!
• Have a great weekend!