Transcript Annex 2 - NDS presentation

Government of the Republic of Tajikistan
Session of the National Development Council under the
President of the Republic of Tajikistan
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGY OF THE REPUBLIC OF
TAJIKISTAN UNTIL 2030
Hamralizoda F.M.
Assistant of the President of the Republic of
Tajikistan on Economic Issues
Dushanbe 2016
BASES OF THE CERTAIN PRIORITIES OF
DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS UNTIL 2030
 Addresses by the President of the Republic of Tajikistan;
 Election programs of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan;
 Implementation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs);
 New global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) after 2015;
 70th Session of the UN General Assembly;
 Evaluation and interpretation of the results of the implementation of the
previous strategic documents;
 Draft of the National Development Concept for the period of 2050;
 Methodological recommendations for the development of NDS-2030;
 Further economic development in the context of the econometric model.
SUCCEED IN
FUNCTIONAL BLOCK
Poverty reduction trend (%)
53.0
50.0
46.7
45.0
41.0
38.2
35.6
32.0
GDP growth in case of scenarios
31.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Иљроиши воќеї
Варианти 1
Варианти 2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Inflation rate (%)
Варианти 3
Share of external public debt to GDP
(%)
39,0
30.6 30.1
34.0 34.4 32.6
26.6
28.6
25.7
22.5
19.2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SUCCEED IN
SOCIAL BLOCK
Maternal mortality (in 100.000 live births)
Children coverage by primary and
secondary education
LESSONS LEARNED
Though:
 Issues of improvement the efficiency use of the national resources,
ensuring energy and food security, ecological and environmental
sustainability, strengthening of diversification of economic activities and
ensuring the competitiveness of the national economy require further
activation;
 implementation of programs for private sector development and state
cooperation with private sector require further improvement;
 reform of public administration system, strengthening of human capital and
accelerate the regional development require new approaches to the
solution of problems.
EXISTING PROBLEMS
 Low quality of services in the field of education and health;
 High level of maternal and child mortality, tuberculosis in
remote regions;
 Increase of HIV/AIDS and non-infectious disease cases;
 Weak growth of number of preschool institutions;
 Poor quality of school infrastructure and lack of skills of
teachers and educators;
 The shortage of electricity in the winter period;
EXISTING PROBLEMS (cont.)
 The problem of unequal access of women and men to the
material and non-material resources;
 Affects of climate change on ecology and environment;
 Inadequate access to safe drinking water;
 Gaps between regions in social infrastructure development;
 Insufficient use of capacities in remote areas in the economic
development of the country.
DIFFERENCES OF NDS-2030 FROM PREVIOUS
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
 Long-term trends determine the country's social-economic development;
 Existing problems in the national economy sectors are counted as a single
integrated system;
 3 new scenarios: (1) Inertial (2) Industrial and (3) Industrial-Innovation;
 Contains 3 development Phases: Transition to a new model of economic
development (2016-2020); Accelerated development phase, which is based
on attraction of investments (2021-2025) and Phase of completion
industrial rapidly increasing capacities based on knowledge and innovation
(2026-2030).
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STRATEGIC GOALS OF NDS-2030
Strengthening the four strategic objectives: :
1) Ensuring energy independence and the efficient use of
energy;
2) Convert from Communications deadlock into a transit
country;
3) Ensure food security and public access to quality foods;
4) Expand productive employment
ПРИНСИПҲОИ АСОСӢ
 Preventive means to prevent (reduce) the vulnerability of
future growth;
 Industrialised, means more efficient use of national
resources;
 Innovation and development based on innovation in all
areas of socio-economic life of the country.
SCENARIOS OF THE DEVELOPMENT
Options of development
Inertial
Industrial
Industrial-Innovation
Expenditures on
education and science in
relation to GDP
5,0-5,5%
5,5-6,0%
7,0%
Expenditure on health
and social protection
compared to GDP
7,5%
8-9%
10,0%
The share of the
agricultural sector to
GDP
19,0%
14,1%
11,7%
The share of industry in
GDP
18,1%
20,1%
22,0%
The share of services to
GDP
50,4%
53,0%
52,8%
The share of indirect
taxes net of GDP
Get low
Get normal
Get normal
The average annual
growth rate of GDP
growth
4-5%
6-7%
8-9%
2 times
2,7 times
3,6 times
GDP growth
IMPLEMENTATION PHASES
(1)
The first phase (2016-2020) - the transition to a new model of
economic growth, investment, increase production aimed at
export and import;
(2)
The second phase (2021-2025) - the transition is based on the
rapid growth in investment;
(3)
The third phase (2026-2030) - the transition from
industrialized growth strategies related to investments, to
diversify production to knowledge-based innovation.
Conclusion
 Improvements structures at national and regional level on
monitoring and evaluation;
 To streamline the delivery and exchange of reports between
ministries, departments, regions and partners;
 At the level necessary to attract domestic and foreign capital for
the full implementation of the NDS-2030 priorities.
Thanks for your attention!