Transcript Enlargement - benefits and challenge

EU Enlargement
Situation: November 2001
What states are knocking on the EU door
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Estonia
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Hungary
Romania
Bulgaria
Turkey
Malta
Cyprus
‘state-of-play’
• France's foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine:
suggestion - EU might consider simultaneously
bringing into the EU all the twelve candidates
currently negotiating their accession – Big bang!
• Hungary’s PM, Orban: the entire EU enlargement
exercise could be put at risk if too many
candidates with different levels of readiness joined
the EU at the same time.
The Copenhagen Criteria (1)
• States must prove their respect for
democratic principles, the rule of law,
human rights and the protection of
minorities
The Copenhagen Criteria(2)
• States must have functioning market
economies able to cope with the
competitive pressures and market forces of
the EU
– Agriculture: Enlargement will double the EU's
agricultural workforce and increase by 50% the
EU's arable land area.
The Copenhagen Criteria (3)
• States must be able to take on all the obligations of
membership, including incorporating into their national
legal system all the laws agreed by the EU
– sheer technical slog of converting some 80,000 pages of EU law into
domestic legislation is enormous – and states must try to ‘enact’ these
laws
– Most controversial of all: EU environmental regulations and labour
standards for health and safety.
• Says the EIU's Barysch: "Small companies that are left over from central
planning and are operating fairly efficiently now would be put out of business
by the introduction of full labour standards. Strict environmental standards
would cause sectors such as steel and chemicals to lose competitiveness."
The ‘acquis’: EU regulations
• Fear: the EU's heavy-handed bureaucracy
and its onerous regulations could stifle the
entrepreneurial spirit that has been
unleashed in their countries since the fall of
communism.
A viewpoint from the ‘Economist’
The issues for the EU
• The EU budget: 96 billion euro
– CAP and Structural Funds take 80%
– How do the applicant states fit into this scenario
• Free movement of labour - thorny issue
Applicant states: their view
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EU money:
– promise of EU membership bringing in additional billions in direct and portfolio
investment that is transforming countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech
Republic.
– a conservative estimates that it will be running at 10 billion euro a year, or, 2 – 3 %
of GDP
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Public Support:
– Poland's accession to the EU has fallen to 49.6 percent from nearly 62 percent last
year, according to a recent poll carried out for Taylor Nelsen Sofres by the Czech
institute Factum.
– The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from
last year
• The poll, based on a 12,042 sample in 11 Central and Eastern European countries, showed
support to be the strongest in Slovenia, Bulgaria and Slovakia, and the weakest in Estonia.
The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from last
year. mwjb 8 November issue of Gazeta Wyborcza p. 20
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Commission view: November 2001
• Prodi: full EU members in time for
European Parliament elections due in June
2004.
– good news for Poland, Hungary, the Czech
Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Baltic states
of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and the
Mediterranean islands of Cyprus and Malta.
Applicant states: problems
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Corruption
Fraud
Trafficking ( women, drugs, )
Protection ( minorities)
Challenges and problems
• The big problem in bringing eastern
European countries into the EU is: the
desire for harmonization is taking
precedence over the need for flexibility.
– The EU insists the applicants adopt the acquis
wholesale,
– the new entrants desire to be a part of every EU
programme going, regardless of its merits.
How the east Europeans shape up
Database
Germany
• Germany: challenges:
– In the east, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, and Saxony--the
Lander bordering Poland--support for enlargement is extremely low. Only
one out of three residents in the region is in favor of the move
– Wages in Poland are as much as six times lower than in Germany
• Germany and Austria pressed for an elective seven-year ban on the movement
of labor from new EU member states.
– free competition in the service sector could have grave implications for
eastern Germany's already battered construction industry.
• Germany : the opportunities:
– Germany's trade with Eastern and Central Europe accounts for about 10
percent of its total foreign trade, falling just $1 billion short of trade with
NAFTA counties.
Estonia
Area:
45,227 square km
Population:
1,439,197 (January 2000), only 31.8 per
square km
Capital city:
Tallinn (population 408,329 or 28% of total
population)
Currency:
kroon (EEK). Fixed exchange rate: 8 EEK = 1
DEM; 1 euro = 15.65 EEK
Taxsystem:
26% flat income tax, 18% VAT. Reinvested
corporate profit is tax free
Language:
Estonian
Head of State:
President, elected for 5 years. Current
President: Mr. Lennart Meri. Next
election: September 2001
Parliament:
The Riigikogu. A unicameral parliament of
101
members.
Term: 4 years. The last elections were
held in March 1999
Administrative
division:
15 counties, 205 rural municipalities and 42
towns
• from Soviet annex to
Nordic tiger
economy
Latvia
Full name: Republic of Latvia
Founded on:November 18, 1918
Population: 2.37 million
Area: 64 589 sq. km
Total length of national border: 1 800 km
Borders with other countries:
Estonia, Russia, Belarus, Lithuania
Capital city: Riga (population: around 800,000)
Currency:lats (LVL). One lats consists of 100
santims. The lats has been the currency since
May 1993
Official language: Latvian
Head of State: President, who is elected by the
Saeima for a period of 4 years. The President
promulgates laws, appoints the Prime Minister
and performs representative functions. The
current presiden, Ms Vaira Vike-Freiberga, was
elected in July 1999.
Type of government:
Democratic, parliamentary republic. Legislative power
is in the hands of a single-chamber parliament –
the Saeima, composed of 100 deputies.
Parliamentary elections take place every 4
years. The last parliamentary elections took
place in the autumn of 1998.
Application for EU accession:
27 October 1995
Lithuania
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Area: 65,300 square km
Population:3.7 million
80 percent of the population is
Lithuanian, 11 percent are Polish and 7
percent are Russians.
Dominant religion: Roman Catholic
Capital city:Vilnius
Currency: Litas (1 litas=0.25USD)
Official language: Lithuanian
(lietuviu)
Political system: Republic. New
constitution ratified in October 1992.
The country is governed by the
President, supreme legislative body
Seimas (a unicameral Parliament of 141
members) and the Government
Application for EU accession: 8
December 1995. Accession negotiations
started in February 2000
Slovenia
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Country profile
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Population: Just under two million inhabitants
Capital city: Ljubljana
Currency:Slovenian tolar - SIT
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GDP per capita:
16.100 PPS (2000 data), which equals 71% of EU
average. Slovenia is one of the most prosperous
candidate countries for EU membership. The GDP of
Slovenia is above Greece and close to that of Portugal.
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Official language: Slovene (slovenščina)
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Head of State:
The President of the Republic represents Slovenia and is
the commander-in-chief of the armed forces
Legislative bodies:
The Republic of Slovenia is a Parliamentary democracy
with the National Assembly (90 MPs) and the National
Council (40 counsellors). The government, composed of
Prime Minister and the cabinet, is the executive branch
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Slovenia (2)
• GDP per capita is very close to Portugal's
and approaching double that of the next
wealthiest east European applicant, the
Czech Republic.
Hungary
Country profile
Czech Republic
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Country profile
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Area78,866km2
Population10.3 million
Neighbours (border in km)Germany (646),
Poland (658), Slovakia (215), Austria
(362)mm
Density131 inhabitants per km2mm
Distribution66% urban population, 34%
rural populationmm
Ethnic profileCzech (94%), Slovak (3%),
Polish (0.6%), German (0.5%), Roma (0.3%),
Hungarian (0.2%), Others (1%)
LanguageCzechReligionAtheist (39.8%),
Roman Catholic (39.2%), Protestant (4.6%),
Orthodox (3%), Other (13.4%)
ife expectancyAverage: 74.1 - 70.8 years
(male), 77.7 (female)
GDP/capita12,498 ECU (PPS) in 1999 (PPS)
(Eurostat)
59% of EU-15 average (1999)
Currency1 Crown or CZK = 100 halire - 1
crown = c.37 EURO (January 2001)
General Government budget2000 Budget:
c. EURO 32 billion
Government deficit9,5% of GDP (2001
forecast)Public debt35% if GDO (estimate
2001)Trade with EUSurplus: 0.1
Hungary
Population10 millionArea93,036 km²Density107.8 inhabitants per km²
Distribution63.7% urban population, 36.3% rural population
NeighboursAustria (356 km border), Slovakia (679), Ukraine (137), Romania (453), Fr Yugoslavia
(164), Croatia (355), Slovenia (102)
Ethnic profileHungarian (96,6%) – 13 officially recognised and registered minorities: German,
Gypsies, Croats, Slovaks, Romanians, Bulgarians, Greeks, Polish, Armenian, Ruthens, Serbs,
Ukrainian – especially protected by Constitution as a component of the Hungarian state; right of
representation in Parliament enshrined in the Constitution and the 1993 Minority Act
LanguageHungarian
ReligionRoman Catholic (65%), Reformed (20%), Lutherans (4%), Orthodox (2.7%), Jewish (1%)
Life expectancyAverage: 71.35 years, 67.1 years (male), 75.6 years (female).
GDP p.c. in 2000In Purchasing Power Standard: 11,700 Euro
(app. 52% of EU average)
Real GDP growth: 5.2%
Inflation rate10.0 % annual average in 2000
Unemployment rateEnd-year 2000: 6.4% (ILO definition)Currency1 Forint or HUF = 100 Fillér
1 Euro = HUF 260; HUF 1.000 = Euro 3.8General gov. budget balance2000 Budget Deficit: 3.7% of
GDPCurrent account balanceIn 2000: -1,620 million Euro = 3,1% of GDP
Foreign debtGross foreign debt: 25,562 million Euro
Debt export ratio: 82.5%Trade with EU in 2000Exports to the EU: 75,1 as % of the total
Imports from the EU: 58,4 as % of the total
Slovakia
Poland
Area: 312,685 square km
Population: 38,654 million inhabitants,
of which 98% are ethnic Poles
Official language: Polish
Constitution:
New Democratic Constitution passed in
1997
Administrative division:
1999: 16 provinces (wojewodztwo), 308
counties (powiat) and 2.489
communes (gmina)
Application for EU accession:
Submitted to the European Commission
in 1994
Romania
Country profile
(Under construction)
Turkey
• Turkey still does not
meet the Copenhagen
political criteria.
– Turkey’s national
programme for the
adoption of the acquis
set the scene for a
major constitutional
reform package,
Malta
Cyprus
Bulgaria
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Country profile
Area:
110,993 sq. km
Population:
approximately 8 million citizens
Capital city:
Sofia
Borders:
To the north with Romania and
the Danube river, to the east is
the Black Sea, to the south are
Turkey and Greece, and to the
west - the FYR of Macedonia
and Yugoslavia.
Form of State:
Parliamentary republic
December 2001 – Enl. schedule
• DecemberSunday 2nd to Thursday 6thBelgian deputy
foreign affairs minister Annemie Neyts visits Cyprus,
Turkey, the Czech Republic and Hungary on her preLaeken tour of the candidate countries
• Monday 3rdEuropean External Relations Commissioner
Chris Patten visits Romania
• Monday 3rd, Tuesday 4thEU-Czech joint parliamentary
committee meets, Brussels
• Tuesday 4th, Wednesday 5thCommission Director-General
for Enlargement Eneko Landaburu visits Latvia
• Thursday 6th-Friday 7thEuropean Employment and Social
Affairs Commissioner
Economist, Nov. 22 2003