Transcript An Integrated Framework for Financial Positions and Flows on a

Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
GUIDE TO ANALYZE NATURAL
RESOURCES IN THE NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
10th Meeting of the Advisory Expert Group on National Accounts
April 13-15, 2016
Paris, France
Claudia Dziobek
IMF
Reproductions of this material, or any parts of it, should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source.
Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Introduction
 STA is developing a Guide to Analyze Natural Resources in
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National Accounts with the generous support of the Managing
Natural Resource Wealth Topical Trust Fund
The Guide complements the GFS Template to Collect Data on
Government Revenues from Natural Resources
Six template tables to guide analysis of macroeconomic
impacts of natural resources and to aid in national accounts
compilation for natural resource industries
Yet to be written is a chapter on problems in compilation of
national accounts for natural resources
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Suggestions for this section are welcome!
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
What is the Guide’s Contribution?
 Other manuals on statistics for natural resources are being
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developed by the Ulaanbaatar City Group, the Oslo City
Group, and the OECD Task Force on SEEA Implementation
Our Guide is different
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We do not cover environmental-economic accounts
We focus on issues of compilation and analysis of natural resource
industries in core national accounts
Concepts are defined with the specificity needed by national
accounts compilers
The Guide is fully consistent with the 2008 SNA
 And many of the analytical measures of macro impacts of
natural resources aren’t covered by existing guidance
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
The Six Template Tables
The Guide has six template tables:
1. Importance of the Natural Resource Industries in GDP
2. Disposition of the Income of Natural Resource Enterprises
3. Labor in the Natural Resource Industries
4. Contribution of Natural Resource Industries to GDP Growth
5. Contribution of Prices Paid and Received by Natural
Resource Industries to Growth in the GDP Deflator
6. Terms of Trade Index with and without Natural Resources
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Template Table 1: Importance of
Natural Resource Industries in GDP
Output*
Value
Taxes
Subsidies
Added
on
on
(VA) Products Products
VA +
Taxes Subsidies
Local Currency
Percent
of GDP
%
Coal
Oil & Gas
Metal Mining
…
Total, Natural
Resource
Industries
Total Economy
GDP
* Consolidated to exclude output used within the same industry
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Template Table 1: Importance of
Natural Resource Industries in GDP
Proportion of Value Added from Natural
Resources
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Chile (2008)
Zambia (2010)
Australia
(2012/13)
Lesotho (2012)
Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Template Table 2: Disposition of the
Income of Natural Resource Enterprises
 Table answers the question “Where does the money go?”
 Uses of income from sales of output are:
1. Intermediate consumption
2. Compensation of employees and “other taxes less subsidies on production”
3. Payments of property income (dividends, reinvested earnings of foreign
subsidiaries, interest, rent), and
4. Payments of current transfers (income taxes, transfers from and to SOEs
5. Gross capital formation, net capital transfers and net acquisitions of
non-produced, non-financial assets, leaving Net Lending as a residual
* Production sharing with the SOE is rerouted, meaning that it is treated as
rent paid to the government that the government transfers to the SOE.
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Template Table 2: Addendum Section
on Government Revenues
 “Taxes on products” in the main section of Table 2 are on
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products purchased by natural resource enterprises
This is consistent with the measurement of output at basic
prices (which excludes taxes on products)
Taxes on products sold by natural resource enterprises are
the focus in the GFS Template and in EITI reports
These taxes are shown in the addendum to Table 2
It also shows the total government revenue from the
diverse types of payments received by the government
Another section of the addendum shows exports of natural
resource products relative to all exports and to GDP
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Template Table 3: Labor Statistics
 Employment, hours, compensation and compensation
per hour in the natural resource industries are compared
to the economy as a whole
 An example for Australia (2012/13)
Employment
(‘000)
Compensation of
Employees ($AUS
million)
Compensation of
Employees per
employee ($AUS)
Natural Resource
Industries
342,667
34,955
102,009
All other industries
8,464,729
698,678
82,540
All Industries
8,807,066
733,633
83,300
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Tables 4 and 5: Contributions of Natural
Resource Industries to GDP Growth
 Template Table 4 shows how to decompose the growth rate
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of constant-price GDP into industry contributions
One version of the formula multiplies the growth rate of
constant-price value added by the share of GDP
Role of natural resource industries in GDP growth (excluding
multiplier effects) is analyzed
The same sort of decomposition formula can be used to find
contributions to the growth of the GDP price index
This is done in Template Table 5, with accompanying
warnings that only direct effects are reflected
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For example, a downstream industry that doesn’t pass along an
increase in an intermediate input price would record a negative
contribution to GDP price change
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Template Table 6: Terms of Trade Effects
Terms of trade index = (export price index)/(import price index)
 Volatile natural resource prices make exporters of natural
resource products susceptible to terms of trade shocks
 To gauge the role of natural resources in changes in the terms
of trade, the standard terms of trade index is compared to one
that omits natural resources from exports and imports
 The price index for gross final domestic expenditure (GFDE)
differs from the GDP price by excluding exports and imports
 Real gross domestic income = GDP/(price index for GFDE)
 Ratio of the GDP and GFDE price indexes = Ratio of real GDI to
GDP volume indexes
 Role of natural resource prices in real GDI growth is analyzed
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Some topics for the chapter on
common compilation problems
 Natural resource projects have four phases: exploration,
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development, production and environmental remediation
Mineral exploration is a kind of fixed capital formation that
must be estimated
Investment in structures during the development phase
must also be measured
Imports of drilling services purchased through foreign
direct investment (FDI) can be hard to measure
Fixed capital assets that take a long time to construct (such
as an LNG production facility), especially import assets
Implications of price volatility
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Conclusion
 The Template Tables will aid policymaking by providing
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guidelines for dissemination of key analytical information
to understand the actual or potential macroeconomic
impacts of changes in natural resource values, volumes
and prices
They will aid national accounts compilation in resourcerich economies by helping to reveal errors and omissions
in measuring natural resource transactions
We plan to pilot test a draft version of the template
tables in several countries
Work on the Guide is proceeding and comments are
welcome
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Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department
Comments!
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