Transcript PowerPoint-Präsentation

A4: Macroeconomic Sustainability assessment
Challenges:
 Generate adequate data for macroeconomic data analysis
 Develop and apply tools to analyse data meaningfully
Questions:
 What are sustainability challenges in the world economy?
 What are drivers of carbonization?
 Is a generalized leapfrogging, i.e. foregoing carbon- and enegy intensive steps in human
development possible?
 What are underlying reasons of carbonization and increasing energy demand?
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A4: Disaggregation of existing multi-regional input-output data (MRIO)
Question:
 How to increase existing MRIO data
sets’ sectoral and geographic
resolution?
Idea:
 Use existing alternative data to
disaggregate existing datasets
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Visualization of state decomposition of the US economy by GDP
Development of an algorithm to
increase limited regional or sectoral
resolution, while considering
consistency of extended MRIO
Exemplarily performed for the United
States, which are disaggregated to
federal states by using GDP data
Development of an adjustment rule to
ensure that sub-flows match
superordinate flow in sum
Wenz, L., S. N. Willner, A. Radebach, R. Bierkandt, J.C. Steckel and A. Levermann
(2014): Regional and Sectoral Disaggregation of Multi-Regional Input-Output Table
– A flexible algorithm, Economic Systems Research
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A4: Comparison of alternative production technologies within MRIOs
Question:
 How to evaluate process innovations as
developed in the CRC regarding their
global impacts?
Idea:
 Development of MRIO-framework to
evaluate overall environmental impact of
innovative processes
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Proceeding: identify “old” processes in
supply chains, replace them by innovative
technology and upscale those supply
chains to MRIO data, then evaluate total
impact
Exemplarily performed for turning and
welding processes
Furthermore: Comparison with Life-Cycle
Assessment
Results
 Improved industrial processes can
indeed contribute to global climate
change mitigation when applied large
scale
LCA comparison of turning process alternatives
Innovative
process
applied
GERMANY
EUROPE
WORLD
- 84.6
- 327.8
- 696.4
in %
- 0.15·10-3
- 0.59·10-3
- 1.24·10-3
in kt
-19.6
-69.0
-220.7
in %
- 0.08·10-3
- 0.30·10-3
- 0.97·10-3
in Mio. USD
2004
Global
impact
Results for the internally cooled wet machine turning process for
implementation in Germany, Europe and World. A carbon emission
reduction is observed in all cases.
Schult, H., M. Burger, Y. Chang, P. Fürstmann, S. Neugebauer, A. Radebach,
G. Sproesser, A. Pittner, M. Rethmeier, E. Uhlmann and J. C. Steckel (2015):
Assessing CO2-reduction potentials of improved manufacturing processes
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using MRIOs, Working paper available on request
A4: Understanding drivers global energy intensity and carbon intensity
Question:
 What drives changes in global energy
intensities?
Idea:
 Decomposition analyses performed to
understand drivers of energy use at
different levels
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Analysis performed with Global Trade
Analysis Project data (GTAP) between
2001 and 2007
Specific focus on delocalization component
and technological component
Results:
 Technological improvements are mainly
driven by improvements in overall energyintensity in particular in mining and heavy
manufacturing sectors
 Those trends are countervailed by energy
intensive sectors gaining shares in
relative energy intensive regions
Factor decomposition of changes in global CO2-emissions changes
Forin, S., J.C. Steckel, A. Radebach and H. Schult : Intra-sectoral
Efficiency Gains vs Delocalization: A Decomposition Analysis of Global
Energy Intensity between 2001 and 2007, IAEE Conference 2014
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A4: What drives the renaissance of coal?
Question:
 What are underlying factors of global
carbonization factors?
Idea:
 Apply extended Kaya-like decomposition
analyses and contrast resulting effects
with statistical analyses
Results:
 In recent years coal has become the
predominant source of global carbon
emissions
 Expansion of coal usage is not restricted
to few individual countries
 Coal witnesses a global renaissance
majorly driven by poor fast growing
countries
 Further building of coal power plants
might lead to lock-in effects for energy
infrastructure
Factor decomposition to identify drivers of increasing global carbon
intensity
Steckel, J.C., O. Edenhofer and M. Jakob (forthcoming): What drives the
renaissance of coal? PNAS
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A4: Reduction potentials by global access to existing technologies
Question:
 How large are CO2-emission saving
potentials if more efficient, existing
sectoral production technology are
accessible to all countries?
Idea:
 Develop an innovative framework
combining linear optimization with MRIO
data that allows for exchange of sectoral
technologies, while ensuring consistency
of international supply chains
Results:
 Relevant CO2-emission saving potentials
already exist when making medium
efficient technologies available
 Largest reduction potentials are located
in a small, specific set of sectors
0.2
0
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-1
Change of output
Change in carbon
intensity
Change in energy
intensity
-1
Decomposition analysis of drivers of relative sectoral CO2-emission
reduction for the reference optimization scenario
Ward, H., A. Radebach, I. Vierhaus, A. Fügenschuh and J.C. Steckel (2015): How
existing technologies can contribute to reducing global CO2-emissions. Working
paper available on request
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A4: Assessing the role of manufacturing sectors for economic development
Question:
 How does sectoral composition
determine economical development
opportunities of an economy?
Idea:
 Apply correlation- and network analysis
to MRIO data to identify and map viable
economic development pathways in the
“similarity space” of sectors.
Results:
 We find clearly distinguishable groups of
sectors, where light manufacturing
sectors serve as bridges
 Buildup of specific manufacturing sectors
is crucial for continuous economic
development
 Undergoing an economy’s industrialized
state seems to be inevitable for
continuous economic growth
Value added-based similarity network of economic sectors
Radebach, A., H. Ward and J.C. Steckel (2015): On the importance of
manufacturing sectors for economic development and growth. Working paper
available on request
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