Transcript xxx asiático

Property insurance in the
Caucasus area - 2014
Daniela GHETU, Editorial Director, XPRIMM Publications
With global warming of close to 1.5°C
above pre-industrial times already locked
in, and a 40% chance to exceed 4°C before
2100 if no further action is taken, weather
extremes considered as occurring every
100 years at most may soon become the
“NEW NORMAL”.
“Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal”, The World Bank
Commonwealth of Independent States
Country features
Caucasus:
17.15 million people;
3.8 million households;
arable land: 15.4% of total
area
Central Asia:
67.82 million people;
over 7 million households;
arable land: 8% of total area
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Russia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
Area
Population
Urban
population
Households
Dwellings
sq km
millions
% of total
millions
millions
29,743
86,600
207,600
69,700
2,724,900
199,951
33,851
17,098,242
143,100
488,100
603,550
447,400
3.29
9.38
9.47
4.47
17.42
5.70
3.56
143.70
8.30
5.80
42.78
30.60
Sources: National Statistics Officies, CIA World Factbook 2015
62.80%
54.40%
76.30%
53.50%
53.30%
35.60%
44.90%
73.90%
26.70%
49.70%
69.50%
36.30%
0.78
1.99
3.86
1.03
4.15
1.11
1.13
52.71
1.20
na
16.98
na
0.86
1.86
3.89
na
na
na
1.08
58.00
na
na
19.40
5.63
Arable land
% of total
land use
15.75%
22.95%
27.21%
5.76%
8.48%
6.66%
55.20%
7.31%
6.14%
4.13%
56.13%
10.23%
Share of agriculture
in GDP
%
21.90%
5.70%
7.30%
9.10%
4.90%
19.30%
15.70%
4.00%
27.20%
13.20%
12.10%
18.50%
CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS
Current risk profile
Earthquake Floods
Azerbaijan
Drought Landslide
X
XX
X
X
Armenia
XXX
XX
X
Georgia
XX
XX
X
Kazakhstan
XXX
XXX
X
Kyrgyzstan
XXX
XX
XX
Tajikistan
XXX
XXX
Turkmenistan
XXX
XX
Uzbekistan
XXX
X
X
X
XXX
X
X
Earthquakes are the dominant disaster risk followed by floods,
landslides and droughts
Higher temperatures  melting glaciers  increased flooding
risk in the coming years  water reserves shortage after a few
decades  prolonged drought
CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS
Reasons of concern
Earthquakes are the dominant
disaster - major cities in Central Asia and
Southern Caucasus are especially at risk.
The energy corridors, as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Crude Oil Pipeline and
the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) Natural Gas Pipeline – crossing territories
with high earthquake exposure
There is a 40% chance of a powerful earthquake striking close to a major
city in the region by 2016. (The World Bank)
Floods – significant risk across the region
– large population concentrations along the river valleys for agricultural
reasons -> significant number of people at risk & agricultural losses
Drought – significant risk across the region – agricultural losses (significant
share in the GDP)
CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS
Economic Loss Potential
Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme, The World Bank
How large is the coverage GAP?
450
400
10 years' average economic losses
10 years' average insured losses
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Insured losses
Uninsured losses
 Participation of
the insurance
industry
worldwide to the
Nat Cat losses is
still too small
 ~ less than
30% of losses are
insured (Swiss Re)
Azerbaijan
Share of agriculture in GDP: 5.7%;
Number of dwellings: 1,861,000
Share of agriculture in labor force: 38.3%
PROPERTY INSURANCE STATISTICS
Total
Non-life GWP (in EUR m)
Fire & other Immovable Agricultural
perils (V)
property (C)
ins. (V)
44.26
12.32
0.93
Non-life claims (in EUR m)
Fire & other
Immovable Agricultural ins.
perils (V)
property (C)
(V)
2.94
1.34
0.52
Total
FY2013
312.52
FY2014
340.46
38.23
18.30
2.60
135.01
8.02
2.54
0.51
8.94
-13.62
48.63
179.00
22.39
173.14
89.10
-2.43
14/13
FY 2014 Non-life claims
FY 2014 Non-life GWP
11.23%
110.31
5.94%
5.38%
1.88%
0.38%
0.76%
Fire & other perils (V)
82.63%
Immovable property (C)
Agricultural ins. (V)
Other
91.80%
Fire & other perils (V)
Immovable property (C)
Agricultural ins. (V)
Other
Armenia
Share of agriculture in GDP: 21.9%;
Number of dwellings: 862,025
Share of agriculture in labor force: 44.2%
PROPERTY INSURANCE STATISTICS
FY2013
Non-life GWP (in EUR m)
Fire & other Damages to
Total
perils (V)
property (V)
61.68
3.82
0.43
Non-life claims (in EUR m)
Fire & other
Damages to
Total
perils (V)
property (V)
32.03
0.36
0.01
FY2014
52.05
3.54
0.50
38.13
8.36
0.01
-15.61
-7.12
16.47
19.04
2241.41
64.52
14/13
FY 2014 Non-life claims
FY 2014 Non-life GWP
6.81%
0.95%
21.93%
0.03%
92.24%
Fire, allied perils
Damages to property
Other
78.04%
Fire, allied perils
Damages to property
Other
Georgia
Share of agriculture in GDP: 9.1%;
Number of households: 1,025,829
Share of agriculture in labor force: 55.6%
PROPERTY INSURANCE STATISTICS
FY2013
Non-life GWP (in EUR m) Non-life claims (in EUR m)
Property
Property
Total
Total
insurance (V)
insurance (V)
191.90
17.22
161.05
1.11
FY2014
14/13
126.23
28.57
95.18
1.92
-34.22
65.92
-40.90
74.01
FY 2014 Non-life GWP
FY 2014 Non-life claims
2.02%
22.64%
77.36%
Property
Property
Other
Other
97.98%
Kazakhstan
Share of agriculture in GDP: 4.9%;
Number of households: 4,152,740
Share of agriculture in labor force: 25.89%
PROPERTY INSURANCE STATISTICS
FY2013
FY2014
14/13
Non-life GWP (in EUR m)
Fire & other Agricultural
Total
perils (V)
ins. (V)
1,054.40
217.18
2.27
Non-life claims (in EUR m)
Fire & other Agricultural ins.
Total
perils (V)
(V)
246.88
44.33
1.46
987.22
233.86
2.17
276.28
30.61
4.80
-6.37
7.68
-4.25
11.91
-30.94
228.56
FY 2014 Non-life claims
FY 2014 Non-life GWP
11.08%
1.74%
23.69%
0.22%
76.09%
Property ins. (v)
Agricultural ins. (c)
Other
87.18%
Property ins. (v)
Agricultural ins. (c)
Other
Belarus
Share of agriculture in GDP: 7.3%;
Number of dwellings: 3,893,638
Share of agriculture in labor force: 9.4%
PROPERTY INSURANCE STATISTICS
Total
FY2013
FY2014
14/13
466.02
475.10
1.95
Non-life GWP (in EUR m)
Prop. of legal Prop. of
Home
entities individuals insurance
(v)
(v)
(c)
73.00
62.82
-13.94
69.23
62.92
-9.11
5.73
5.78
0.87
State
subsidized
agro ins.
(c)
20.50
14.94
-27.11
Total
205.25
217.74
6.09
Non-life claims (in EUR m)
Prop. of legal Prop. of
Home
entities
individuals insurance
(v)
(v)
(c)
31.55
33.81
7.17
33.91
33.62
-0.86
2.25
2.45
9.17
State
subsidized
agro ins.
(c)
11.96
6.78
-43.33
FY 2014 Non-life claims
FY 2014 Non-life GWP
15.53%
13.22%
13.24%
15.44%
69.17%
1.22%
3.14%
Property of legal entities (v)
Property of individuals (v)
Home insurance (c)
State subsidized agro ins.(c)
Other
62.80%
3.11%
3.11%
Property of legal entities (v)
Property of individuals (v)
Home insurance (c)
State subsidized agro ins.(c)
Other
Russia
Share of agriculture in GDP: 4%;
Number of dwellings: 58,000,000
Share of agriculture in labor force: 9.7%
PROPERTY INSURANCE STATISTICS
FY2013
Non-life GWP (in EUR m)
Real estate - Real estate - Agricultural
Total
legal entities individuals
insurance
(V)
(V)
(V)
18,233.82
2,319.00
663.71
317.70
9,082.43
FY2014
12,865.19
1,641.34
564.99
244.37
6,702.11
464.24
92.49
79.36
-29.44
-29.22
-14.87
-23.08
-26.21
-16.24
-27.50
-38.08
14/13
FY 2014 Non-life GWP
Total
Non-life claims (in EUR m)
Real estate - Real estate legal entities
individuals
(V)
(V)
554.25
127.56
Agricultural
insurance
(V)
128.17
FY 2014 Non-life claims
6.93%
12.76%
1.38%
1.18%
4.39%
1.90%
80.95%
Real estate - legal entities (V)
Real estate - legal entities (V)
Real estate - individuals (V)
Real estate - individuals (V)
Agricultural ins. (V)
Other
90.51%
Agricultural ins. (V)
Other
Regional summary – risks enhancing factors
• 2/3 of the region’s population is concentrated in the southern area,
highly prone to all kinds of hazards, exacerbated by the diverse
geography and extreme weather conditions − coupled with climate
change.
• Many capital cities nad large cities located in high to very high hazard
areas.
• The energy corridors are crossing territories with high earthquake
exposure.
• Droughts – the second major risk in Caucasus – 27% of Armenia and
17% of Azerbaijan fall under the high drought hazard category (the 2000
drought in Central and south-west Asia and the Caucasus region
affected about 60 million people)
Regional summary – risks enhancing factors
• Low financial literacy of people – unadequate perception of risks
• Insufficient insurance protection of dwellings, although mandatory in some
countries
– Nat Cat insurance penetration even lower
• Low penetration of the property insurance lines, especially agricultural
insurance
• With few exceptions, poor Nat Cat risks’ transfer mechanisms – inadequate
protection of households and small enterprises
Housing protection improvement
needed:
• insurance protection
• risk mitigation measures
Agricultural insurance development
needed across the entire region