Transcript 2014 Autumn package - EESC European Economic and Social

THE AUTUMN ECONOMIC
GOVERNANCE PACKAGE
November 2016
Jakub Koniecki
Secretariat-General of the Commission
November 2016
autumn economic governance package
• 2017 Annual Growth Survey
• Recommendation for a Council Recommendation on the economic
policy of the euro area
• Communication "Towards a positive fiscal stance for the euro area"
• 2017 Alert Mechanism Report
• 18 opinions on the draft budgetary plans of euro-area Member States
for 2017 and a Chapeau Communication
• 2017 Draft Joint Employment Report
• Communication on the assessment of action taken by PT and ES on
their excessive deficits
• Proposal for a Council opinion on the Economic Partnership
Programme presented by Portugal
The 2017 Annual Growth Survey
• It sets out the main economic priorities for the
Member States and the EU for the coming year
• Kicks off the 2017 European Semester
• Debate on the European Semester at the EP Plenary
of 25 October
Key economic and social developments
2014-2016
• Return to moderate growth: GDP higher than before
the crisis. Recovery is job-intensive
• EU unemployment rate kept falling at 8.6% in
September 2016: lowest level since 2009
• Total investment has started to grow again since 2014
• Public deficits in the euro area have decreased: from
an average of 6% few years ago to below 2% in 2016
Key policy challenges
CHALLENGES
THE POLICY RESPONSE
• Re-start real convergence
A determined response
EU/EA and national level:
• Rebalancing and deleveraging
• Boosting investment
(of high public and private debt)
• Unemployment and social
impact of the crisis
• Pursuing structural reforms
• Responsible public finances
at
An integrated approach based on
three priorities
Source: Commission
Boosting investment
WHAT HAS BEEN
ACHIEVED
• November 2014:
Plan for Europe
WHAT REMAINS
TO BE DONE
Investment
• Improving the functioning of the
financial sector
• Mobilising finance through the
EFSI
• Increasing the impact of EU
funds
• European Investment Project
Portal (EIPP)
• Tackling barriers to investment
• European Investment Advisory
Hub (EIAH)
• Opportunities for EU businesses
to benefit from global markets and
investment
Ensuring responsible public finances
WHAT HAS BEEN
ACHIEVED
• Reduction in the average public
deficit of the euro area and in the
number of countries under an
excessive deficit procedure
• Pension systems have been
reformed in a majority of Member
States
WHAT REMAINS
TO BE DONE
• Support the on-going recovery
to bring about a positive fiscal
stance for the euro area as a
whole
• Complement enacted pension
reforms with flanking policies
• Member States’ fiscal policies
should be supportive to growth
while ensuring longer-term debt
sustainability
Pursuing structural reforms to modernise
our economies
• Creating jobs and enhancing skills
• Social policy as a productive factor – modernising the
welfare state
• Deepening the single market and making national
markets bigger
Next steps
• Member States should step up implementation of the key
reforms highlighted in the country-specific recommendations.
They should make full use of the opportunities offered to them
at EU level
• Intensify the dialogue with the Member States in the run-up
to
the
national
programmes
and
country-specific
recommendations next spring
• To prepare the national programmes, the Communication
calls for a strong role of national Parliaments and a stronger
involvement of social partners
Recommandations for the euro area (1)
• Pursue policies that support growth in the short and the long
term, and improve adjustment capacity, rebalancing and
convergence.
• Deliver an overall positive fiscal stance contributing to a
balanced policy mix, to support reforms and to strengthen the
recovery through a fiscal expansion of up to 0.5% of GDP in
2017.
Recommandations for the euro area (2)
• Implement reforms that promote job creation, social fairness
and convergence, underpinned by an effective social dialogue.
• Agree on a European deposit insurance scheme on the basis
of the Commission's proposal of November 2015.
• Accelerate initiatives to complete the EMU.
Follow-up
• Recommendations addressed to euro area Member States –
individually and collectively
• Discussion in Eurogroup and approval by ECOFIN
• European Council endorsement
• ECOFIN adoption
• Possible EP report
• Regular monitoring of
discussions in Eurogroup
implementation
&
thematic
13
Communication "Towards a positive fiscal
stance for the euro area"
• • Follow-up to the letter of intent accompanying the 2016
State of the Union
• • Need for a positive fiscal stance for the euro area
• • Fiscal sustainability remains a priority. Public debt is now
receding slightly from its peak of 92% in 2015 but levels
remain very high
• • Reaching the right policy mix for the euro area is less
straightforward in the absence of a centralised budget
The 2017 Alert Mechanism Report
• Overview of the state of macroeconomic imbalances
(improving overall but far from fully addressed)
• Identifies 13 Member States for in-depth review
• Despite continued improvements, the same sources or
risks identified in the 2016 Alert Mechanism Report
are confirmed
Assessment of euro area Member States'
Draft Budgetary Plans for 2017 (1)
15 countries in the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth
Pact:
• DE, EE, LU, SK, NL: the DBPs are found to be compliant with
the requirements for 2017 under the Stability and Growth Pact
• IE, LV, MT, AT: the DBPs are found to be broadly compliant
• BE, IT, CY, LT, SI, FI: the DBPs pose a risk of noncompliance
Assessment of euro area Member States'
Draft Budgetary Plans for 2017 (2)
3 countries currently in the corrective arm of the Stability and
Growth Pact:
• FR: the DBP is found to be broadly compliant
• ES: the DBP is found to be at risk of non-compliance
• PT: the DBP is found to pose a risk of non-compliance
Source: Commission
Communication on the assessment of action
taken by Portugal and Spain
• PT: effective action taken  the excessive deficit procedure
should be kept in abeyance
• ES: projected achievement of the required headline deficit
target in 2016  the excessive deficit procedure should be
kept in abeyance
The 2017 draft Joint Employment Report
• Analyses the employment and social situation in Europe
and the policy responses by Member States
• Improvement
recovery
in
the
context
of
moderate
economic
• Uneven involvement of social partners in the design of
reforms across the EU
• Youth unemployment and the numbers of those not in
employment, education or training (NEET) continue to
decline
Proposal for a Council opinion on the
Economic Partnership Programme presented
by Portugal
• Presented to the Commission and to the Council on 21
October 2016
• Analyses the state of play of National Reform Programmes
(NRP) implementation
• Confirms the reform agenda for fiscal and other structural
reforms included in the National Reform Programme
• Commission and the Council monitor the implementation of
the reforms in the context of the European Semester and
the post-programme surveillance.
THE AUTUMN ECONOMIC
GOVERNANCE PACKAGE
November 2016
Jakub Koniecki
Secretariat-General of the Commission
Reserve slides
Economic outlook
• Current economic environment: low inflation, low
growth and low interest rates, together with a
supportive monetary policy stance
• Widespread acceptance that monetary policy cannot
take the full burden of macroeconomic stabilisation
• Positive developments in the EU, signalling the
resilience and recovery of the European economy
• The GDP of the euro area is now beyond its pre-crisis
level but the recovery remains slow
Context of the package: economic surveillance cycle
November
Autumn
forecast
Annual Growth
Survey
Alert Mechanism
Report
Commission's opinions on draft
budgetary plans
Commission's assessment of budgetary
situation of euro area
NEW: Commission proposals for
euro area recommendations
Winter
forecast
15 October
Euro Area Member States:
Draft Budgetary Plans
Country
Reports
15 April
Stability/Convergence Programmes
National Reform Programmes
Country-Specific
Recommendations
May/June
Spring
forecast
25
Source: Commission
Calendar of the European Semester