Transcript presentation source

Increasing Competitiveness Through the
Utilization of Emerging Technologies
• Leader to Leader Speaker Series,
Allstate Insurance Company
(Proprietary Material Removed)
• July 17, 1998
National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA is the Leading Edge Site for the
National Computational Science Alliance
www.ncsa.uiuc.edu
National Computational Science Alliance
The Grid Links People with
Distributed Resources on a National Scale
Source: NASA http://science.nas.nasa.gov/Groups/Tools/IPG
National Computational Science Alliance
Alliance National Technology Grid
Workshop and Training Facilities
Being Deployed Across the Alliance
Jason Leigh and Tom DeFanti, EVL; Rick Stevens, ANL
National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA Expanded
Industrial Partner Program
• Four Types of Partnership
– Strategic Industrial Partner
– Strategic Technology Partner
– Infrastructure Development Partner
– Professional Development Program
• Created by Task Force in Spring 1998
– Committee Had Broad Representation
– Industry
– Campus
– Alliance
National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA Has Three Major
Technical Focus Areas
• Knowledge Management
• Visualization & Virtual Reality
• Scalable Computing
National Computational Science Alliance
The Emergence of Knowledge Management
October 20, 1997
National Computational Science Alliance
Why Do We Need Knowledge Discovery?
• Drivers
– Focus on Customer
– Focus on Competition
– Focus on Data Assets
• Enablers
– Data, Data, Data Everywhere
– Growth of Data Warehouses/Marts
– New Information Technology Solutions
– New Machine Learning Research
National Computational Science Alliance
Knowledge Discovery Applications
Marketing
 Target marketing
 Customer relationships
 Market basket analysis
 Cross selling
 Market segmentation
Strategic Analysis
 Forecasting
 Customer retention
 Improved underwriting
 Competitive analysis
 Fraud detection
Manufacturing
 Troubleshooting
 Problem prediction
 Reliability
 Quality control
National Computational Science Alliance
Information Analysis
Operational Data to Optimal Decisions
Operational Data
External
Marketing
Data
Management
and
Preparation
Classification
Estimation
Prediction
Link Analysis
Prospects
Internal
Customer
s
Transactions
Knowledge
Discovery In
Databases
Decision
Support
Analysis
Process
Process
Optimization
Clustering
Validation
Visualization
New
Perspectives
And
Decision
Variables
Decision Variables
National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA’s Autonomous Learning Group
•
•
•
•
Data Management
Data Mining
Information Visualization
Autonomous Agents
Michael Welge R&D Program Manager
National Computational Science Alliance
Data Mining NCSA Industrial Partner Projects
• Caterpillar
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–
–
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Effluent Quality Control
Smart Selling
Warranty Claims Analysis
Customer Value Analysis
• Ford
• Sears
– Transaction Management
• Boeing
– Post-Flight Diagnostics
• Allstate
– Medical Claims
– Product Compatibility
– Harshness, Noise, Vibration
– Marketing
• Financial Impact May Be Greater Than $30 Million
National Computational Science Alliance
The Desktop Window into Data Spaces Allstate is Pioneering an NT Intranet
• Deployment of 60,000+ NT Desktops
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–
–
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15,000 Sales Locations
220 Claims Offices
17 Regional Offices
3 Large Data Centers
1996-2001
• Standard Software Environment
– Microsoft Office
– Internet Explorer
• TCP/IP Network with T3 Backbone
• Partnering with NCSA’s NT Data Refinery
National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA / Allstate
NT Cluster Data Refinery
1000 Gigabytes of Allstate Claims Data
Parallel
Compute
Cluster
Compaq
NT
Server
Visualization
Stations
Terabyte
“Smart Bucket”
Compaq
NT
Server
External
Networks
Data Mine on Cleaned Gigabyte Samples
Source: Allstate & Tilt Thompkins, NCSA
National Computational Science Alliance
The University of Illinois NT Supercluster 256 Intel Pentium II Processors
“Supercomputer performance at mail-order prices”-- Jim Gray, Microsoft
• Andrew Chien, Computer Science UIUC
• Rob Pennington, NCSA
192 Hewlett Packard
300 MHz
64 Compaq 333 MHz
National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA Information Visualization Laboratory
Databases
In3D™ for C++ and Java
VizIt/In3D™
Immersa
Desk™
Graphics
Workstations
MineSet
S-PLUS
Cave™
Flat Panel Wall
National Computational Science Alliance
Sears Pioneers Massive Data Mining and
Information Visualization at NCSA
• 1998 VLDB Survey Program Grand Prize Winner
– Largest Database
– 4.7 Terabytes of Data (Roughly 1000 PC Hard Drives!)
– 10 Terabyte Total Disk Space Capacity
– Storage Provided by EMC
Image Courtesy of Michael Welge, NCSA and Sears
National Computational Science Alliance
Visualizing Relationships Between Documents6500 News Stories from the WWW in 1997
SPIRIX software ThemeScapes www.thememedia.com
National Computational Science Alliance
Visualizing Relationships Between Documents Need Extension to Millions of Web Documents
SPIRIX software Galaxies www.thememedia.com
National Computational Science Alliance
The Continuing Exponential
Agent of Change
Cray X-MP Supercomputer
Located at National Center
Cost: $8,000,000
No Built in Graphics
56 kbps NSFnet Backbone
1985
1998
IBM Desktop PC
Located on 60,000 Allstate Desks
Cost: $2,000
Interactive 3D Graphics
56 kbps Modem to Home
National Computational Science Alliance
Growth Rate of the NSF Supercomputer Capacity
is 70% Compounded Per Year!
1,000,000,000
Total NU
Normalized CPU Hours
70% Annual Growth
This Year
100,000,000
10,000,000
1000 x 1985
1,000,000
100,000
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
10,000
Fiscal Year
Source: Quantum Research; Lex Lane, NCSA
National Computational Science Alliance
Market Driven Companies Replace
Stand-Alone Supercomputer Companies
500
Other
Number of Systems in
Top 500 Fastest Computers
Japanese
400
Other
DEC
Intel
Japanese
TMC
Sun
DEC
Intel
HP
300
TMC
IBM
Sun
Convex
HP
200
Convex
SGI
IBM
SGI
100
CRI
TOP500 Reports: http://www.netlib.org/benchmark/top500.html
Jun-98
Nov-97
Jun-97
Nov-96
Jun-96
Nov-95
Jun-95
Nov-94
Jun-94
Nov-93
0
Jun-93
CRI
National Computational Science Alliance
Proposed NCSA Silicon Graphics
Cray Origin Array - 1024 Processors
Origin Array
Processors
6x128
3x64
2x32
Subject to NSF Approval of Funds
National Computational Science Alliance
JP Morgan Hero Calculation
• HPC Strategic Business Analysis
• Calculations Used 128-Processor SGI Origin
– Two Week Period in January 1998
– NCSA and SGI Doubled Memory in a Week
• Extended JPM's Risk Management Capabilities
• Hundreds of Market Scenarios Simulated
• NCSA, Strategic Vendor, Industrial Partner
– Existing Relationships Facilitated Quick Startup
– Win-Win-Win Result
Andrew Abrahams, Jeff Saltz, JP Morgan
National Computational Science Alliance
The NCSA Information Workbench An Architecture for Web-Based Computing
User Input
User Web Browser
Output to User
User
Instructions
and queries
Workbench
Application
Programs Instructions
(May have varying
interfaces and be
written in different
languages)
Results
to User
Server
Information
Queries Sources
(May be of
Format Translator,
varying formats)
Query Engine and
Program Driver
Results
Information
NCSA Computational Biology Group
National Computational Science Alliance
The Future of Business on the Web What Customers are Coming to Expect
• Human Agents Become Advisors and Tutors
– K-12 Teachers
– Stock Brokers
• The Competitive Equation
– Controlling Cost
– Customers Want to Compare Value
– Adding Share Holder Value (Stock Price Last 12 Months)
– Dell vs IBM (188% vs 14%)
– Amazon vs Barnes & Noble (820% vs. 95%)
• Getting on the Learning Curve
National Computational Science Alliance