Transcript Future Ready? - Wolters Kluwer (UK)

Future Ready?
&
What of the future?
www.stephenarcher.eu
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
The market can
remain irrational…
...for longer than you can
remain insolvent.
John Maynard Keynes 1883 - 1946
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
www.stephenarcher.eu
Europe : Free fall or Free of shackles?
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Fiscal Pact?
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Countries most exposed the Greek debt
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Government Deficit as % of GDP 2012
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
G8 Growth prospects
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
S&P Sovereign Rating Criteria
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Political Risk
Economic Structure
Economic Growth prospects
Fiscal Flexibility
General Government Debt burden
Offshore and contingent liabilities
Monetary Flexibility
External Liquidity
External Debt burden
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
It never rains but it
…..
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Wait for austerity to work?
Conditions for an effective fiscal pact in
Eurozone
- Central fiscal autonomy
- Central monetary autonomy
- Central budgeting across all nations
- Central political leadership
- Regional and sustainable electorate acquiescence to the above…
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Break up the Euro?
Options & end Game ?
60%
- Greek exit
30%
- P & I exit
- Total break up 10%
CONFIDENCE
IS
WHAT YOU HAVE
BEFORE
YOU UNDERSTAND
THE PROBLEM!
WOODY ALLEN, 1935 CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
The deficit reduction and outlook
‘Funding-for- lending’
=
$80b + confidence boost
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
“You should do the mathematics
but then burn the paper and
write it down in words.
Maths and models should be
‘aids to thinking’, not substitutes
for it”.
Alfred Marshall [the founder of Cambridge economics]
A few dark clouds
-Eurozone
-Tools to trade with
-Retail businesses
-BRIC slow down
UK economic outlook
for the next 12-18 months
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Growth
1%
Unemployment
2.6m
Inflation
+2%
House prices
+2%
Fiscal environment
Hold
Consumer activity
Muted
Confidence
Improving
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Reasons to be cheerful
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Collective will
Forbearance
We are not in the Euro
Financial services will help GDP
Bank asset values
UK is seen as EU investment ‘safe haven’
Credit rating agencies approving UK
UK can cut expenditure and debt
George may fully wake up
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
What your
firm can be
doing to
prosper in
the current
and future
markets
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Future ready: 4 key Growth enablers
•Vision
•Strategy
•Talent
•Leadership
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Your destination – defines your journey
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6.
7.
Where do you want your business to go?
Where are you now?
What do you need to do to get there?
How can you do it?
What are the opportunities (and threats)
What are the strengths (and weaknesses)
Who will make it happen....?
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
The price challenge
Communicate & connect services
to Value & Outcomes
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Enable & create change & innovation
(a non negotiable culture)
• Challenge the team
• Empower the team
• Establish unambiguous actions
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Five ways to differentiate your
business
Service innovations
Product innovations
1. Treat your customers differently – as
well as better than anyone else
2. Present yourselves differently
3. Create your Brand – knowingly
4. Sharing and Giving
5. Create discussions and projects
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
Steal with Pride !
Achieving
the Achievable
“Some people change when
they see the light, others
only when they feel the
heat.”
Anonymous
Yes we can !
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June
CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm  London 21 June