Transcript Terms of Reference of ISWGNA Task Force on FISIM

Improving the scope detail and quality of the
national accounts
AGNA Meeting
12 – 15 May 2015
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia,
United Nations Statistics Division
1
Outline
•
Introduction
•
Scope and Compliance Measures for the 2008 SNA
•
Availability, timeliness of annual reporting from a global
perspective.
•
Compliance with the 1993 / 2008 SNA and ISIC Rev. 3.1 / 4.
•
Scope of national accounts statistics reported to the UNSD.
•
Template to design country action plans - Statement of strategy
2
Introduction
•
For monitoring the implementation of the 1993 SNA the ISWGNA
developed a set of six milestones to assess the scope of accounts
that are compiled by countries.
•
These milestones were later supplemented by three data sets
describing (a) minimum set of accounts that need to be
compiled; (b) a recommended set of accounts; and (c) a desired
set of accounts.
•
To assess the compliance with major 1993 SNA concepts the
ISWGNA developed a set of questions.
•
The quality of the national accounts dimension was assessed
using the IMF quality assessment framework
Scope and Compliance Measures for the 2008 SNA
•
The elements of the scope and compliance measures used for the
1993 SNA are deemed to be adequate to also assess the scope and
compliance for the 2008 SNA.
•
However, the need for more timely information to facilitate
appropriate policy responses highlights the importance to include
also the compilation of quarterly national accounts, which require
some adjustments to the scope measure as reflected by the
required data set measure.
•
The compliance questionnaire was adjusted to reflect the 2008 SNA
concepts for determining the conceptual adherence to the 2008
SNA.
Availability, timeliness of annual reporting
•
Almost all countries are reporting annual national accounts to
UNSD, many countries with a time lag of more than one year.
•
Most countries currently compliant with the 1993 SNA and ISIC
Rev. 3.1, with some countries using the 1968 SNA .
•
Many countries are not able to submit the minimum requirement
data set (as defined by the UNSC) to the UNSD.
5
Number of countries reporting annually for the
reporting period 2001 to 2013
180
160
Number of responses
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
NAQ reporting period
6
Number of countries reporting annually
and data availability
Number of countries that replied to the UN-NAQ
Total
NAQ 2013
NAQ 2014
number At least once
NAQ NAQ with 2013 NAQ with 2014
of
between 20092014 data
2012 2013 data
countries
2013
available
available
UN Member
States
193
183 (95%)
166
165
107 (65%)
87
43 (49%)
44
43 (98%)
43
43
31 (72%)
13
4 (31%)
137
130 (95%)
113
112
66 (59%)
65
36 (55%)
CIS countries
12
10 (83%)
10
10
10 (100%)
9
6 (50%)
African
countries
54
49 (91%)
41
40
22 (55%)
21
10 (48%)
Developed
countries
Developing
countries
7
Number of countries reporting annually
and data availability
60
50
40
54
54
41
40
54
NAQs submitted
30
20
Total African
countries
22
22
21
10
10
0
NAQ 2012
NAQ 2013
NAQ 2014
Data for latest
reference year
available
Number of countries compliant with the
1968, 1993 and 2008 SNA
Total number
of countries
1968 SNA
compliant
1993 SNA
compliant
UN Member
26
108
193
States
Developed
1
6
44
countries
Developing
25
91
137
countries
0
11
CIS
12
African
13
35
54
•
59
Member
States
have
implemented
the
2008
SNA
countries
•
•
•
2008 SNA
compliant
59
37
21
1
6
Some Member States have opted to introduce certain aspects of 2008 SNA
in a gradual implementation of the 2008 SNA
13% of Member States still use 1968 SNA (24% of African countries)
77 Member States are implementing or partially implementing ISIC Rev. 4.
Number of countries submitting the tables of the MRDS
GDPp GDPp GDPp IEA
GDPe GDPe
IEA
C
K detail Total
C
K
RoW
2.1 / 2.2 / 2.3 / 1.3 /
1.1
1.2
4.2
2.4
2.5
2.6
4.1
UN Member
States
Developed
countries
Developing
countries
CIS
African
countries
193
168
144
177
172
136
147
101
44
43
42
44
43
43
41
35
137
115
93
123
119
83
96
58
12
10
9
10
10
10
10
8
54
43
37
46
44
25
30
19
Per cent countries submitting the MRDS
100
90
80
70
87
80
60
92
89
85
81
75
69
76
70
56
50
52
46
40
30
35
20
10
0
1.1
1.2 2.1/2.4 2.2/2.52.3/2.6 1.3/4.1 4.2
UN Member States
African Countries
Scope of National Accounts Statistics
Total
number of
countries
MRDS
Milestone Level
2
Six or more
Seven tables 1 or higher Seven tables
tables
submitted
UN Member
States
Developed
countries
Developing
countries
CIS
African
countries
193
120 (62%)
93 (48%)
169 (88%)
93 (48%)
44
40 (91%)
34 (77%)
43 (98%)
34 (77%)
137
71 (51%)
51 (36%)
116 (85%)
51 (36%)
12
9 (75%)
8 (67%)
10 (83%)
8 (67%)
54
22 (41%)
18 (33%)
43 (80%)
18 (33%)
12
Statement of strategy as template
for country action plans
 a strategic planning frame work for the development of a
statistics programme to meet policy needs
 set of actions to accomplish statistical and institutional
goals for the sustainable improvement of the statistics
programmes
Statement of Strategy – take into account
 Policy documents, NSDS, etc.
 Regional strategic frameworks for statistical
capacity building
 Regulatory and institutional framework
 Statistical infrastructure
 Statistical operations
Consolidation of statistical requirements,
assessments and actions
 Confrontation of
 Goals – as determined by international recommendations and
policy needs – compliance
 Requirements to meet goals – administrative and survey
resources
 Current status – present practices
 Actions – to remedy the shortcomings
Statement of strategy
Required actions to be carried out:
 Regulatory and institutional framework – strengthening
the functioning of NSS, its programming, management
and performance
 Statistical infrastructure – strengthening the use of
standards (2008 SNA), classifications (ISIC Rev 4),
registers and frames
 Statistical operations – strengthening of data collection,
compilation, dissemination and analysis
Examples of actions
 Improve statistical legislation, code of conduct, service
agreements for NSS
 Comply with standards: 2008 SNA, ISIC rev 4, etc.
 Upgrade of business registers and area frames
 Extend use of administrative data
 Increase periodicity and timeliness of data (price
statistics, production and turnover surveys)
 Integrate survey and questionnaire design of economic
activity surveys (structural business statistics and short
term business statistics)
 Integrate survey and questionnaire design of household
surveys (labour and income and expenditure surveys)
 Extend coverage of enterprises (informal sector surveys
etc.
Action plan
 Indicates the interventions to be carried out with a timetable
to mitigate data gaps.
 Provides an information structure for monitoring and
evaluating the implementation of the SNA.
 Needs to be specific, measurable, relevant and be executed
in a particular time scale.
 Each of the required actions needs to include key features
and key deliverables.
Integrated statistics approach


Scope of the statistics programme goes beyond the production
of national accounts to also cover the statistical production
process of basic statistics and to aspects of the institutional
environment
It is, thus, based on an integrated statistics approach which



Produces statistics that present a consistent and coherent picture
of economic activities for policy, business and other analytical uses
Uses common concepts, definitions, estimation methods and data
sources for statistical reconciliation
Moves away from a narrow stove-pipe statistical production model
to cross-functional holistic model
19
Integrated statistics approach
Building blocks

Common conceptual framework provided by the SNA

Institutional arrangements (legislative, organizational,
budgetary, managerial and customer relationship arrangements)
further support the environment for integration

Statistical production process as an integrated production chain
from the collection of basic data to the dissemination of statistics
20
Macroeconomic
accounts
Household and
demographic
statistics
Economic &
environmental
statistics
Data integration
Inputs
Statistical
operations
Outputs /
Dissemination
Integrated statistics approach
Data processing
Data collection
Registers and frames
Surveys
Statistical
infrastructure
Standards and methods
Institutional
setting
Information, Communication Technology (ICT)
Management and internal policy
Institutional arrangements
21
Conclusion
SNA implementation goals:
 MRDS
 Improve quality of NA
Statement of strategy:
 requires agreement by the national statistical system (data
producer, provider and user), high political support and
donor consultation
 is basis for formulating a national implementation
programme using an integrated statistics approach
 is basis for actively seeking funding for implementation
programmes from own sources and donors
Thank you
[email protected]
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/default.asp
23
Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA:
The Data Sets
Annual Accounts
Quarterly Accounts
Nominal and volume measure of GDP by industry or
by expenditure components
Minimum requirement
Minimum requirement
1.1
Expenditures of the GDP in current prices
Minimum requirement
Optional
Minimum Requirement
1.2
Expenditures of the GDP in constant prices
Minimum requirement
Optional
Minimum Requirement
2.1
Value added and GDP in current prices by industry
Minimum requirement
Optional
Minimum Requirement
2.2
Value added and GDP in constant prices by industry
Minimum requirement
Optional
Minimum Requirement
Value-added components by industry, current prices
Minimum requirement
Recommended
Employment by industry
Minimum requirement
Recommended
NAQ Table Number
GDP, value added and employment
2.3
Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA:
The Data Sets
NAQ Table Number
Annual Accounts
Quarterly
Accounts
Integrated accounts and tables, including integrated satellite accounts
1.3 /
4.1
5.1
Accounts for the total economy (until
net lending)
Minimum
requirement
Minimum
requirement
Supply and use table
Recommended
Desirable
Cross-classification of output/value
added by industries and sectors
Recommended
Tourism accounts, environmental
accounts and other socio-economic
accounts
*
Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA:
The Data Sets
NAQ Table Number
Annual Accounts
Purpose classification of expenditures
3.1
3.2
General government final consumption
(and other) expenditure by purpose in
current prices
Recommended
General government final consumption
expenditure by purpose at constant prices
*
Individual consumption (and other)
expenditures by purpose in current prices
Recommended
Individual consumption expenditures by
purpose at constant prices
Purpose classification of intermediate and
final consumption across all sectors
*
*
Quarterly
Accounts
Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA:
The Data Sets
NAQ Table Number
Annual
Accounts
Quarterly
Accounts
Institutional sector accounts (until net lending)
4.2
Rest of the world accounts (until net lending)
Minimum requirement
Minimum requirement
4.3
Non-financial corporations sector accounts (until net
lending)
Minimum requirement
Recommended
4.4
Financial corporations accounts (until net lending)
Minimum requirement
Recommended
4.5
General government sector accounts (until net lending)
Minimum requirement
Recommended
4.6
Household sector accounts (until net lending)
Minimum requirement
Recommended
4.7
Non-profit institutions serving households sector
accounts (until net lending)
Minimum requirement
Recommended
Recommended
Desirable
Recommended
Desirable
Financial accounts
4.1 –
4.7
Financial accounts for all sectors
Balance sheets and other changes in asset accounts
Balance sheets, revaluation and other volume changes in
asset accounts for all sectors
Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA:
Milestones
Implementation milestones
Complementary data systems
Pre-SNA phases
Basic data
SNA-related data and
development
on production, turnover,
consumption, investment, exports and imports
Consumer
Balance
and producer price indices
of payments goods and services
account
Monetary
Milestone 1. Basic indicators of gross
domestic product (GDP)
- Final expenditures on GDP current and
constant prices
- GDP by industry at current and
constant prices
survey statistics
Supply and
use table worksheets
Balance
of payments: current, capital and
financial accounts
Government
finance statistics (GFS)
transaction accounts
Milestone 2. Gross national income and
other primary indicators
Capital stock
- For rest of the world, external account
of primary incomes and current
transfers
GFS
- Capital and financial accounts
International
statistics
Quarterly
investment position
Regional
transactions and stocks in assets and
liabilities
Monetary
and financial statistics
national accounts
accounts
Satellite accounts
for
environment and other satellite
accounts
Input-output analysis
Scope of the implementation of the 2008 SNA:
Milestones
Implementation milestones
Complementary data systems
SNA-related data and
development
Milestone 3. Institutional sector accounts: first step:
Same
as for milestone 2
Same
as for milestone 2
Same
as for milestone 2
Same
as for milestone 2
Same
as for milestone 2
Same
as for milestone 2
Same
as for milestone 2
Same
as for milestone 2
for
all institutional sectors Production account
for
general government Generation of income,
Allocation of primary income, Secondary distribution
income, Use of disposable income, Capital and
financial accounts
Milestone 4. Institutional sector accounts:
intermediate step 1:
for
all institutional sectors Generation of income
Allocation of primary income Secondary distribution
of income Use of disposable income Capital accounts
Milestone 5. Institutional sector accounts:
intermediate step 2:
for
all institutional sectors Financial account
Milestone 6. Institutional sector accounts: final step:
for
all institutional sectors Other changes in assets
account Balance sheet
Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA
Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts Yes
data currently include estimates for:
Elements affecting the level of GDP
Gross capital formation (GCF)/output
1. the entire defence expenditure incurred by government included in the GCF?
2. consumption of fixed capital measured on all government fixed assets
(airfields, roads, hospitals, docks, dams and breakwaters and other forms of
construction except structures) including military weapon systems?
3. the expenditure on Research and Development included in the output and
GCF?
4. all (successful and unsuccessful) mineral exploration expenditure
capitalized?
5. purchases of computer software expected to be used for more than a year
included in GCF?
6. expenditure on software development on own account expected to be used
for more than a year and for sale included in GCF and output?
7. the expenditure on all databases expected to be used for more than a year,
whether purchased on the market or developed in-house, included in the GCF
and output?
No
Partly
na
Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA
Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts
data currently include estimates for:
8. expenditure on entertainment, literary or artistic originals included in the GCF
and on their development included in the output?
9. expenditure on valuables included in the GCF?
10. the natural growth of cultivated forests included in output in GCF?
11. the output of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM)
calculated on loans and deposits only using interest rates on deposits and loans
and a reference rate of interest?
12. the output of FISIM allocated to users?
13. the production of all goods that are produced by households whether for sale
or not —included in the output?
14. the activity of the own-account money lenders included in the output?
15. the value of output of goods and services produced by households and
corporations for own final use, when estimated on cost basis, include a return to
capital?
16. the output of non-life insurance services in the event of catastrophic
losses estimated using adjusted claims and adjusted premium supplements?
Yes
No
Partly
na
Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA
Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts
data currently include estimates for:
17. the output of the Central Bank estimated separately for financial
intermediation services, monetary policy services and supervisory services
overseeing financial corporations?
18. the unit undertaking purely ancillary activity, located in a geographically
separate location from establishments it serves, treated as a separate
establishment?
19. the output of the activity of non-autonomous pension funds and unfunded
pension schemes separately recognised?
Volume estimates
20. volumes estimated using a chaining procedure on an annual basis?
Social contributions/insurance
21. unfunded social contributions (for sickness, unemployment, retirement etc.)
by enterprises imputed as compensation of employees and included as
contributions to social insurance?
22. non-life insurance estimates include premium supplements rather than
being based just on premiums less claims?
23. life insurance estimates include premium supplements rather than being
based just on premiums less claims?
Yes
No
Partly
na
Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA
Question: Does your country’s reported national
accounts data currently include estimates for:
Elements affecting GNI
24. reinvested earnings estimates included in the rest
of the world account?
25. foreign workers’ remittances excluded from GNI?
Elements not affecting the level of GDP/GNI
Valuation of output
26.a output and value added measured at basic
prices? a
26.b output and value added measured at producers’
prices? a
26.c value added measured at factor cost? a (not part
of the 2008 SNA)
27. the goods for processing recorded on a net basis?
Yes
No Partly
na
Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA
Question: Does your country’s reported national accounts Yes
data currently include estimates for:
Final consumption
28. government final consumption expenditure broken
down into individual and collective consumption?
Status of implementation of the 2008 SNA
29. the 2008 SNA has not been implemented in
officially reported national accounts, when does the
country plan to implement and release data based on
the 2008 SNA? (Specify the year.)
No Partly na
Statement of Strategy
Consists of:

A strategic planning frame for the development of an economic
statistics program that meets policy needs

Set of actions to achieve statistical and institutional goals for the
sustainable improvement of the economic statistics capacity
and takes into account:

Policy documents, NSDS, etc.

Regional strategic frameworks for statistical capacity building

Regulatory and institutional framework

Statistical infrastructure

Statistical operations
Elements of a sound Statement of strategy /1
Mandate, is determined by national and regional policy objectives and
underpinned by the regulatory and institutional framework

Legal mandate (Statistical Act)

International standards
•
UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics
•
2008 SNA, BPM6, GFSM, ISIC Rev4
Mission statement describes the purpose, users, outputs, markets,
philosophy and basic technology

The efficient and timely dissemination of high quality national
accounts and supporting economic statistics in response to policy needs
in an interconnected regional and global economic environment
Elements of a sound Statement of strategy /2
Values need to reflect the values and principles portrayed by the UN
Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics to produce useful high-quality
data

Statistical professionalism

Independence and integrity

Customers oriented services

Respect and understanding for data suppliers

Value for money
Elements of a sound Statement of strategy /3
High-level objectives that represent the strategic accomplishments to be
achieved

Improving scope, quality and timeliness of economic statistics

Minimizing response burden

Increasing use of administrative data for statistical purposes

Achieving cost effectiveness using best practices

Raising public awareness and use of national accounts and economic
statistics
Elements of a sound Statement of strategy /4
Specific goals to be set in order to achieve the high-level objectives

Compile national accounts according to milestone two of MRDS

Develop a national hub for short-term economic statistics
With required actions to be carried out:



Regulatory and institutional framework – strengthening the functioning
of NSS, its programming, management and performance
Statistical infrastructure – strengthening of use of standards (2008
SNA), classifications (ISIC Rev 4), registers and frames
Statistical operations – strengthening of data collection, compilation,
dissemination and analysis
For more information: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/stemplate.doc
Tools for development of Statement of Strategy /1
Statistical System information - Country Fact Sheet to facilitate the
assessment and assist in developing the statement of strategy

Overview of the national policy priorities and national plans

Overview of policy and statistical initiatives of international and
regional organizations into a single framework
Allows for collating information available at the national level and at
various international organisations on the national statistics system
For more information visit: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/cProfile.asp
Tools for development of Statement of Strategy /2
Diagnostic tools aim at improving the scope, detail, frequency and quality
of the basic economic and supporting statistics required for the
compilation of SNA by:

Providing a clear picture of the state of development of a national
statistical system: infrastructure, production processes, data availability…

Helping to set realistic and sustainable objectives in term of development
of statistical capacities for the production of national accounts

Assessing the gap between where we stand and where we want to be

Allowing multilateral and bilateral donors to better design their technical
assistance projects and enhance the coordination of their respective
activities
Tools for development of Statement of Strategy /3
UNSD proposes a generic diagnostic tool that:

is based on the widely used CES Classification of Statistical Activities

provides a structured presentation of statistical activities aimed at

•
collecting, producing and disseminating data,
•
developing standards,
•
harmonization and implementation of statistics.
•
Statistical activities are organized in five statistical domains
allows assessment of economic activities in terms of:
•
This allows the Statistical productions process
•
Institutional organization and
•
Managerial aspects of official statistics
For more information: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/WG4_20DiagnosticTool.pdf
and http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/evaluation.doc
Tools for development of Statement of Strategy /4
Other diagnostic tools have been developed that can complement or
supplement the UNSD diagnostic tool

UNECE/ESCAP/Eurostat/EFTA Global Assessment of National Statistical
Systems: http://www.unece.org/statcoop/ga.html

OECD Statistical System Assessments; e.g. Russia:
http://www.oecd.org/std/Assessment-of-the-Statistical-System-and-Key-Statistics-of-theRussian-Federation.pdfssessments

IMF Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Modules:
http://dsbb.imf.org/pages/dqrs/ROSCDataModule.aspx
Diagnostic tools and other statistical assessments should be ideally conducted
on a regular basis in order to monitor progress and revise action plans
Consolidation and implementation
In order to successfully implement the 2008 SNA and related statistics
strategy it is important to implement the following good practices

The Statement of Strategy should be prepared in full consultation with
major policy makers and other national and international stakeholders

The Statement of Strategy should be an integral part of the existing
and/or forthcoming national multi-year programs (e.g. NSDS)

High-level objectives and implementation plans should be articulated
in existing statistical work programs (annual or biennium)

Assessment and diagnostic tools should be conducted on a regular
basis in order to monitor progress and eventually update the work
programs

Consult colleagues and stakeholders prior to any international and
regional events and brief them after (outcome, follow-up, actions…)