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Will Future Water Professionals
Sink under Received Wisdom, or
Swim to a New Paradigm?
Douglas J Merrey
World Water Day 2008: The Water Professional
of Tomorrow, 12th NETHCID Symposium,
Wageningen University
Question of the Day for Water
Professionals
Will we use our skills and opportunities simply to
re-confirm and further consolidate, through
tinkering, old paradigms of thinking and acting?
Or will we throw off the shackles on our minds, ask
new questions, and thereby create new
paradigms for a better world?
(And will we train our future students to overthrow
our own sacred paradigms?)
Outline
1.
2.
Investing in “Water Security” as a necessary condition for
rapid economic development
Assess three assumptions underlying the Water Security
Argument
Its necessity: the “minimum platform”
Large-scale water infrastructure is necessary to achieve water
security
 Alternatives ignored: the case of agricultural water
management in sub-Saharan Africa
C. Faith in “stakeholder consultation” to ensure equity and
environmental sustainability
A.
B.
3.
4.
A political economic perspective on water investments
Conclusions: Priorities for the Water Professionals of
tomorrow—research and action
1. The Water Security Case
 “Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and
development,” David Grey and Claudia Sadoff, Water
Policy 2007
 Excellent article making the case for renewed investments on
water infrastructure, especially in Africa
 Draw on their argument, as it represents an increasingly
dominant view in development banks
 Though I am questioning some of their assumptions, I respect
their having moved the Bank from a low-risk no-action stance
 Freely using Dr Grey’s slides with thanks
 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) focus—my current interest;
greatest infrastructure gap; and likely big investments in
future
African Infrastructure Gap
Until recently investments in infrastructure
declining
Huge gap by all possible measures
Half population no sanitation
Lower road density than India in 1950
Schools, hospitals, communications
Only a few countries e.g., South Africa, can
invest enough to reduce gap quickly
Some slides from Dr. Grey
2108
2,000
1,800
United States consumption – 12000kWh/capita/yr
1,600
1,400
581
800
29
Burkina Faso
114
38
Uganda
204
55
Tanzania
126
21
200
85
400
184
600
430
1,000
500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption
for reasonable quality of life
900
1,200
Morocco
Egypt
Algeria
World Average
Energy use per person in Africa
Senegal
Ghana
Kenya
Ethiopia
Nigeria
0
Cameroon
Elec consumption (kWh/yr)/Capita
Infrastructure gap: Access to electricity
The infrastructure gap: Hydropower
Hydropower Potential Tapped
100%
80%
Europe
N America
60%
40%
S America
Asia (incl.
China)
20%
Africa
0%
Water storage per person (m3)
7,000
6,150
6,000
4,729
5,000
4,000
3,255
2,486
746
1,406
North
America
Australia
Brazil
Ethiopia
0
China
43
South
Africa
1,000
1,287
Laos
2,000
Thailand
3,000
‘Water security’: Investment gap
Country
Additional
Storage
needed per
person
(m3)
Storage
investments
required per
person
(US$)
Storage
Investments
Required
(US$ Billion)
Period needed at
5% current GDP
investment per
year (no pop.
inc.)
(Years)
Lesotho
751
939
1.7
44
Namibia
542
678
1.3
8
Nigeria
402
503
67.3
32
Ethiopia
555
694
46.2
144
Kenya
307
384
12.1
24
Tanzania
610
763
27.4
60
Uganda
511
639
17.9
58
Burkina
Faso
152
190
2.5
22
Senegal
683
854
9.9
40
Algeria
239
299
9.8
4
Devastating Impacts of Variable and Uncertain Rainfall
Worsened by Lack of Storage and Inadequate
institutional and infrastructural Capacity to Manage
Impacts of Floods and Droughts
Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982
3.0
1.0
5.0
0.0
-1.0
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0.0
1979
Real GDP growth (%)
2.0
10.0
-2.0
-5.0
-3.0
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
-10.0
-4.0
Years
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
15.0
2000 & 2001 winters:
extreme flooding in
Mozambique
Mozambique’s 2000 floods
-23%
+44%
“Water Security”
 Definition: ‘Acceptable’ quantity and quality of
water for life and ecosystems with ‘acceptable’
level of water-related risks
 Necessary condition for economic growth
 Wealthy countries ‘harnessed hydrology’—most in
easy conditions
 Poor countries faced with “difficult hydrology”
 “direct consequence” – Have not achieved water security
 Some “hampered by hydrology”
 Some even worse off—”hostage to hydrology”
Bleak prognosis unless huge investments made to
achieve “minimum platform” of water security
Poverty and Hydrology—Grey and Sadoff
2. Three assumptions
A. Water security as necessary condition for
economic growth
B. Achieving water security requires largescale water infrastructure
C. High level of faith that “stakeholder
consultation” will ensure equity and
environmental sustainability
A. Water security as necessary condition
for economic growth
 Use “stories,” e.g., TVA in USA, Murray-Darling in
Australia, hydroelectric in western Europe to make
positive case
 Imply these were critical pre-requisites to national growth – but
no evidence given
 Admit but minimize social and environmental costs
 No questions asked on longer-term sustainability
 Contested argument that increasingly resonates in other
“over-developed” areas in Asia, Mexico, USA
 Question not asked: Were there alternative investments
to achieve development goals?
 Public presentations—say “there is no alternative”
Need critical in-depth studies and use these studies as
basis for developing more useful scenario and
decision-support tools
B. Achieving water security requires
large-scale water infrastructure
 “Infrastructure” includes institutions necessary to
build and manage it
 Where hydrology “difficult” failure to invest in
water security  “deeper hole”
 In this situation, initial returns to large water
infrastructure will be low in conventional terms
 Growing investments higher returns over time until
minimum platform, then balance of managementinfrastructural investment returns shift
Achieving water security requires largescale water infrastructure
 Are there no alternatives?
 If so, why are they not considered?
 What is needed in terms of knowledge,
skills, public action to stimulate and
contribute to such debates?
The Case of Agricultural Water
Management (AWM) Investments in
SSA
The “Consensus” View
 Low level of irrigation in SSA
 Massive irrigation investments key to Asian
“Green Revolution”
 Therefore, massive irrigation investments are
needed in SSA
 Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development
Program (CAADP), and
 Commission for Africa (“Blair Report”) 
Both argue for doubling irrigated area by 2015
Are the “solutions” of yesterday and Asia
applicable to the future and to SSA?
The Figures on irrigated Area
Irrigated Land (% of Crop Land)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
South Asia
Middle East &
North Africa
East Asia &
Pacific
Latin America &
Caribbean
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Some counter-arguments
 Most staple food is not irrigated in SSA
 Improving rainfed agriculture may have higher payoffs
to reduce poverty (Comprehensive Assessment)
 Insufficient surface water available
 Financial and human resources insufficient
 High cost, though often SSA costs are exaggerated
 Long gestation period for formal irrigation
 Wide range of low-cost individualized AWM
technologies available and proven successful
 Per Euro invested, more beneficiaries, food security,
income, achievable in short time, with better
opportunity to target
Why is there strong resistance to
supporting policies and programs for
micro-AWM & rain fed?
• Growing evidence of
benefits
• Benefits accrue quickly
• Synergies with
infrastructure projects
• Development banks,
governments pay lip
service to rainfed and
small technologies
WHY?
Treadle Pumps--Types
KENYA
S. AFRICA
C. Faith in “Stakeholder Consultation”
 International consensus view this will lead to
equitable and harmonious “IWRM”
o Social and environmental costs can be reduced using
local knowledge and consultation
Is this realistic?
 Most citizens poor, not organized, lack
information
 Up against power vested interests supported by
government officials
Even South Africa, best example of a country
that is committed and trying—disappointing
results
Will ‘stakeholder consultation’ be added
to the long list of failed water reforms?
 Radical reforms needed for effective
empowerment of stakeholders—rare
 Need large-scale comparative studies on
approaches to identifying drivers for success
 Need radical change in training of water
professionals
 Even M.Sc. courses in “IWRM” rarely provide real
training in building coalitions and working with
stakeholders
3. Political Economy of Water
Investments
Why do development banks, governments
continued to emphasize need for largescale infrastructure investments nearly
exclusively with little attention to water
options that may benefit more people
more quickly at lower costs?
Why do they continue to pay lip service to
‘stakeholder consultation’ but avoid creating the
political conditions necessary for it to work?
Political Economy of Water Investments
Political economy of water investment
decisions is a knowledge gap
Wageningen University a leader in
researching politics of irrigation schemes and
now river basin management
Rhetoric: banks support country-driven
projects—reality quite different and complex
IIMI Dutch associate expert examined this
in 2 Sri Lankan irrigation schemes funded
by ADB 20 years ago
Political Economy of Water Investments
 Sri Lanka case: ADB & its consultants drove projects




Imposed design and operational standards
Never accepted by Irrigation Dept.
No ownership—”No one cared”
Bank but not government reacted very negatively to Nijman’s
drafts
 Development banks-consultants-governments”beneficiaries” nexus: complex and not understood
 Fertile ground for research
 Development bank staff may do excellent technical studies but
work within their own institutional paradigms
 Universities better placed to do this than international
organizations
4. Conclusions: Research and Action
Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water
Professional
Grand opportunities to make a different in Africa
 African professionals—special responsibility & commitment
 Others can work as partners, learning and contributing together,
and influencing governments and policy shapers globally
Water is political: Powerful vested interests maximize
benefits.
 In this context how can we knowledge producers
and processors play a more active and decisive
role?
Conclude with a few questions to open a wider
discussion at this Conference
Research and Action Priorities for
Tomorrow’s Water Professional
Is “water security” a pre-requisite for
development?
Is large-scale infrastructure the only road
to water security
Who are its real beneficiaries in developing
countries
What constellation of interests and driving
forces lead to favoring large-scale
infrastructure over alternatives?
Applies to development banks, governments
Research and Action Priorities for
Tomorrow’s Water Professional
 Are there alternative investment roads?
 How can the policy space be widened to consider
alternative options?
 How can coalitions be mobilized nationally and
internationally to support alternatives?
 What strategies and reforms can empower poor
stakeholders to participate effectively in
investment decisions?
 How can governments and international agencies
foster this? Or are they indeed part of the problem?
Research and Action Priorities for
Tomorrow’s Water Professional
What indeed are the proper roles for knowledge
producers and processors and how can our
effectiveness be enhanced?
To inform research and actions socially as well as
technically, a new kind of water professional will
be needed in future
Much to do, little time
Will the water professionals of tomorrow work
within and therefore sink under old
paradigms?
Or will we swim to
new paradigms and
thereby a better
world in future?
Our real clients

More clients
Thank you!