Transcript ICP 2011 Round

The ICP 2011 Round
Presented by:
Michel Mouyelo-Katoula
Global Manager
International Comparison Program
World Bank
Outline
I
Introduction & objectives for the 2011 round
II
III
Lessons learned from the 2005 round: Innovations
and Improvements
Institutional arrangements
IV
Countries’ activities
V
PPP aggregation & linking
VI
ICP data uses
VII
ICP 2011: methodological development &
timeframe
VIII
The way forward
2
Part I
Introduction & objectives
for the 2011 round
3
Part II
Lessons learned from
the 2005 round:
Innovations and
Improvements
5
What worked in ICP 2005
Where improvements can be made
 Role of the ICP Executive Board
 Defining respective roles in governance
 Role of the Technical Advisory
Group
 UNSC, Global Office, Executive Board and TAG

 Role of the regional coordinators
Respective roles of the UNSC, Global Office,
Executive Board, and Technical Advisory Group
 Regional workshops with
countries, global workshops with
regions
 Agreements with regions/countries more explicitly
define requirements for submitting regional and
ring data
 Partnering arrangements
between national statistical
offices and regions/global office
 More explicitly define policies on data access and
sharing

 …
Australia, Canada, France,
Russia, the UK
 Define process to determine methodology for
regional results and linking
 Strengthen ties between ICP and Eurostat-OECD


Separate agreement
Mutual representation in regional workshops
 Encourage more partnering arrangements
 Determine protocol with countries when data
collected by regional or global consultants
 Limit on what countries can do at a time
 …
6
Lesson learnt from 2005
Review
Survey Tools
Effective
Quality of
2005
Method
To be improved
Improve
Method
Deploy
Not effective
Apply 2005
Method
Research
Develop
Survey Tools
7
Innovations
1. Outreach focus
2. An ICP quality assurance framework
3. Statistical capacity building
4. An ICP Book titled “Measuring the Size of the World
Economy”
5. A National Accounts framework for ICP
6. A system of economic validation of price and
expenditure data
7. Linking Regions through Global Core List Approach
8
Methodological Improvements
Most Robust
Linking Method
 A 600-item Global Core List for household consumption,
equi-representative of all the regions
 Global core list for household consumption included in
regional lists
 All countries in the world price the global core list items
 Equipment list equally representative across the regions
and OECD-Eurostat countries
 New National Accounts framework
Improved Quality
of National
Accounts & Prices
 Improved GDP expenditures
 Field prices expected to be more consistent with nationalaccounts-embedded prices
 A comprehensive quality assurance framework being
finalized
Improvements in
other areas
 Improved methods for health and education
 A new method being designed for construction
 A 10-topic research agenda being pursued
9
Part III
Institutional arrangements
10
UNSC
ICP
Governance
Structure
Executive Board
World Bank
Global Office:
Global Manager
+
Staff
Regional
Advisory
Boards
TAG
OECD-EUROSTAT
OECD
E/STAT
AfDB
ADB
CIS
ECLAC
ESCWA
Countries
11
Country Participation and Flow of Data
Global
PPPS
CORE
PRICES +
REGIONAL
PPPs
ICP Global Office at World Bank
52 Countries
28 Countries
9 Countries ?
ECLAC
33 Countries
More than 180 Countries
ESCWA
PRICES &
GDP EXP.
CIS
PRICES &
GDP EXP.
ADB
PRICES &
GDP EXP.
48 Countries
AfDB
PRICES &
GDP EXP.
PRICES &
GDP EXP.
OECD
EUROSTAT
PRICES &
GDP EXP.
OECD EUROSTAT
PPPS + CORE
PRICES
14 Countries
12
Part IV
Countries’ activities
13
National Accounts Framework for the ICP
Derived from SNA-1993
The Framework
Set of tables and forms
Step-by-step guidelines
Piloted in 5 countries
Division of work
National Accountants
Price Experts
N.A. Activities
Main List Prep.
Housing
Main price survey
Public Education
Private Education
Public Health
Private Health
Comp. Of Empl.
Equipment
Construction Exp.
Constr. pricing
Other pricing
Expenditures – Price Consistency
14
Input Vs Output Methods
15
Price Surveys in 2011
400-800
Household
Items
Q1
Q2
5-10 Housing
Intra
Country
Validation
Q2
Q4
20
Government
Occupations
100
Equipment
20
Construction
Items
Q4
Q3
Services
100 Health
goods &
Services
5-20
Education
Services
Q3
Annual
National
Average
Prices
Q4
Q3
Q4
16
Country Activities: Estimation of
GDP Expenditures
100 Household
Review GDP
Classification
Cons. Basic
Headings [BH]
Identify
Data Sources
Housing BHs
Health BHs
Education BHs
Carry out N.A.
work for
comparison
resistant areas
Implement
Commodity
Flows where
possible
NPISH BHs
Government BHs
Estimate GDP &
Main
Aggregates
Equipment BHs
Construction BHs
Develop
vector of 2011
GDP
expenditures
Other GDP
components BHs
17
Part V
PPP aggregation & linking
18
Regional Level: PPP Computation
All countries in
a region
Household
..
..
..
..
All countries in
a region
..
..
..
..
Housing
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Health
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Education
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Government
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Equipment
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Construction
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Annual National
Average Prices
Regional Basic
Heading PPPs
All countries in
a region
..
..
..
..
Regional
Aggregated
PPPs
19
Global Core List Approach
All countries in
the world
All countries in
the world
Household
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
….
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Construction
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Annual National
Average Prices
for Global Core
Items
All countries in
the world
..
..
..
..
Calibration
Factors
Global Basic
Heading PPPs
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Regional Basic
Heading PPPs
All countries in
the world
..
..
..
..
Global PPPs
20
Part VI
ICP data uses
21
Major Uses of PPP
Major uses of the PPP results at international and regional levels include:
• International poverty headcount index (World Bank)
• Comparing relative sizes of economies and estimating weighted averages of regional
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
growth rates (IMF)
Allocation of structural and cohesion funds (European Commission)
Human Development Index (UNDP)
Gender empowerment measures (UNDP)
Health inequality assessment (World Health Organization)
Assessing per capita expenditures in education (U.N. Educational, Scientific & Cultural
Organization)
Monitoring the welfare of children (U.N. Children’s Fund)
Designing effective aid programs (International Organizations)
Other uses include:
• Analysis of an economy’s comparative advantage on prices and expenditures of goods
or services (Policy Makers)
• Evaluation of investment costs and industry growth potential across countries.
• PPP adjusted cost of living allowances (Multinational Corporations, Non-Government
Organizations, International Development Agencies)
22
Part VII
ICP 2011:
methodological development
& timeframe
23
Methodological Development
Topic
1. Owner-occupied housing
2. Measurement of government outputs
3. Survey frameworks
4. Construction PPPs
Priority
High
High
High
High
5. Education
6. Guidelines for the disaggregation of GDP
expenditures into basic headings
7. Health services
8. Global Core List for the main price survey
9. Machinery and equipment
High
High
10. Financial services
11. Net Exports and net purchases abroad
12. PPP-based poverty analysis
13. Back-casting and PPP revisions
14. Linking regional PPPs into global results
15. Sub-national PPPs
Status
Adopted
Adopted
Adopted
Approach adopted
Ongoing research
Ongoing research
Adopted
High
High
High
Ongoing research
Adopted
Approach adopted
Ongoing development
Low
Adopted
Low
Adopted
Low
Ongoing research
Low
Ongoing research
Medium Ongoing research
Very low Ongoing research
24
Timetable for the Development of Product Lists
2010
July
Submission of
Country’s Input on GCL
15
Submission of Matrix of
Importance of GCL
Items
15
Submission of
Consolidated Regional
Lists
Submission of Matrix of
Importance of Regional
Items
August
Sept.
Oct.
15
30
25
National Accounts Timetable
2011
2010
Major aggregates for latest
year possible
J
BH details for final cons.
aggregates for latest year
possible
J
Values for all BHs
Preliminary data for 2010
N
J
N
J
2012
2013
N
J
Major aggregates for 2011
J
O
M
BH values for 2011
J
O
M
M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November
26
Overall Timetable
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Meetings
2. Quality Assess.
3. Methodologies
4. Survey Prep.
5. Survey Implement.
6. Nat. Accounts
7. Regional Results
8. Global Results
27
Part VIII
The Way Forward
28
October 2010 Meetings
in Washington DC
18th
19th
Morning
Meetings
Participants
Executive Board Meeting
All Board
Members
Open
World Statistics Day
Afternoon ICP Users’ Conference
80-100
20th
4th TAG Meeting
40
21st 22nd
3rd Regional Coordinators
Meeting
20
TAG members are invited to
attend
Each TAG member asked to
propose 5-6 people to be
invited
EB Members; TAG; RCs;
Users; Bank and IMF;
Academia; Press
With Regional Coordinators
as observers
29
The Way Forward
 A report to the United Nations Statistical Commission [UNSC] on
country readiness for field and desk activities. The report will be
prepared in November and discussed at the 42nd session of the
Statistical Commission in New York in February-March 2011
 The main surveys for household consumption items will start in all
the regions in the first quarter of 2011
 The 4th meeting of the ICP Executive Board will take place in April
2011 to review preliminary regional reports on the launch of the main
surveys in the countries and decide any remedial measures where
necessary
30
Thanks
31