Transcript Presentación de PowerPoint

November 2014
PERU
MACROECONOMIC SITUATION
&
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
PERU
• Population:
30 millions
• Area:
1’285,000 Km2
• Capital name:
Lima
• Languages:
Spanish, Quechua
• Currency:
Nuevo Sol
• Exchange Rate:
2.90 Nuevos Soles per US$
PERU: MACROECONOMIC SITUATION & INVESTMENT OPORTUNITIES
1. Macroeconomic Indicators
2. Friendly investment environment
3. Open trade and market access policy
4. Attractive sectors to Invest
MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS
1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Peruvian economy grew rapidly in the last decade …
GDP , 2003-2015*
(US$ Billion)
Real GDP 2003-2015*
(% variation)
235.7
9.8
8.9
199.6
8.8
206.5
216.7
176.6
7.7
6.9
6.8
153.8
6.3
6.0
5.6
126.9 127.0
5.0
107.3
4.4
4.0
92.3
61.4
69.7
79.4
0.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and IMF
* Estimated figures of BCRP (Inflation report as of July 2014) and IMF
1.1.
MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS
MACROECONOMIC
STABILITY
ESTABILIDAD
MACROECONÓMICA
Economic growth has been driven by an increase in private investment….
Private Investment 2003-2015*
(US$ Billion)
Source: BCRP
* BCRP Estimated figures (Inflation report, July 2014)
1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
…… which today represents almost 22% of GDP ….
Total investment 2003-2015*
(% of GDP)
5.9
4.5
5.7
5.4
5.8
6.0
22.5
22.5
2015*
Inversión Pública
2014*
Inversión Privada
5.8
4.8
3.5
17.6
19.2
19.2
20.4
20.8
2013
2005
2008
2004
Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru
* Estimated figures of BCRP (Inflation report as of July 2014)
16.8
2007
13.8
15.1
2006
13.9
14.5
2003
19.5
2012
3.2
2011
3.1
2010
2.9
2009
3.0
Source: International Monetary Fund and Central Reserve Bank
1.1.
MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS
MACROECONOMIC
STABILITY
ESTABILIDAD
MACROECONÓMICA
Investment announcements have increased in the 1st semester
Announcement of Private Investment projects 2014-2016
(US$ million )
Apr.14
Jul.14
Differences
Mining
18,989
19,031
42
Hidrocarbons
5,589
6,226
637
Electricity
5,443
5,785
342
Industry
2,762
2,932
170
Infrastructure
3,627
3,763
136
Other sectors
7,425
8,192
767
43, 835
45, 929
2, 094
Total
Source: BCRP. Inflation report, July 2014
1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
… Peru is an attractive market for foreign investment, which $10 billion in 2013
12.3
Foreign direct investment flow 2003 – 2015*
(US$ Billion)
10.0 10.1
8.5 8.1
6.9
8.2
6.4
5.5
3.5
2.6
Source: BCRP
* Estimated figures BCRP ( inflation report , July 2014)
Source: IMF and CEPAL
1/ preliminary figures .
2015*
2014*
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
1.3 1.6
1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
…Furthermore, the domestic demand is strengthening ….
Imports of vehicles
for private use
(US$ million)
Imports of domestic
assets
(US$ million)
1,628
1,804
4 veces
Times
10 veces
Times
393
180
2000
Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and MEF
Estimated figures BCRP (Inflation report, July 2014)
2012 /E
2003
2012 /E
Source: SUNAT and MEF
Estimated figures
1/ Includes imports of refrigerators, television, washing machine and y electrical appliance
1.1.
MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS
MACROECONOMIC
STABILITY
ESTABILIDAD
MACROECONÓMICA
This is complemented by a dynamic commercial trade…
Balance of Trade 2003-2015*
(US$ million)
49,000
45,000
41,000
37,000
33,000
29,000
25,000
21,000
17,000
13,000
9,000
5,000
1,000
(3,000)
46,268 46,228
41,829
39,836
41,846
35,565
28,094
31,019
26,962
23,830
17,368
12,809
9,091
2003
Exportaciones
9,091
Exports
Importaciones
8,205
Imports
Balanza
Comercial 886
Trade Balance
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014* 2015*
12,809 17,368 23,830 28,094 31,019 26,962 35,565 46,268 46,228 41,829 39,836 41,846
9,805 12,082 14,844 19,591 28,449 21,011 28,815 36,967 41,113 42,191 42,447 44,044
3,004 5,286 8,986 8,503 2,569 5,951 6,749 9,301 5,115
-362
-2,611 -2,198
Source: BCRP
* Estimated figures BCRP ( Inflation report, July 2014)
1.1.
MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS
MACROECONOMIC
STABILITY
ESTABILIDAD
MACROECONÓMICA
… and diversification, both in products and markets
Traditional Exports(commodities)
(US$ million)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
Otros
Others
Plomo
Lead
Oil
Petróleo
Gold
Oro
Copper
Cobre
Main trading partners
2002
times
65veces
10,000
Asia
11%
Others
13%
Euro
Zone
14%
5,000
2003
2008
2013
Non-Traditional Exports
(US$ million)
10,000
8,000
6,000
Otros
Others
Químicos
Chemical
Textiles
Textile
Agro
Agro
2013
5 times
2,000
-
Source: Central Bank of Reserve of Peru
USA.
18%
LAC
19%
China
17%
Others
9%
4,000
2003
Rest of
Europe
21%
LAC
15%
0
12,000
U.S.A.
26%
2008
2013
Rest of
Europe
10%
Euro Zone
14%
Asia
13%
1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
... in a frame of macroeconomic stability, Peru registers the lowest inflation rate in the
region…
CPI – Latin America 2002- 2012
(Annual Average Variation %)
11.6
6.5
4.8
Argentina
Brasil
Colombia
4.4
México
CPI – Latin America 2013
(Annual Average Variation %)
Source: Central Bank of Reserve of Peru,IMF
3.2
2.8
Chile
Perú
1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
65.7 64.6
2013
Net International Reserves
( US$ Billion)
64.0
2012
...and has accumulated international reserves for a third of the GDP
48.8
44.1
27.7
Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru
*Up to August 1, 2014
33.1
2014*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
17.3
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
9.6 10.2
12.6 14.1
31.2
Source: BCRP. Inflation report July 2014
*Projection
FRIENDLY INVESTMENT
ENVIRONMENT
2. FRIENDLY INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
Peru offers a favorable legal framework for foreign investment:
 Non discriminatory treatment: Foreign investors receive the same treatment as
local investors.
 Free transfer of capital.
 Free competition.
 Guarantee for Private Property.
 Freedom to purchase stocks from locals.
 Freedom to access internal and external credit.
 Freedom to collect royalties.
 Arbitration Rules for Business Disputes.
 Network of investments agreements (MIGA).
2. FRIENDLY INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
Special Regimes: Legal Stability Agreements
Regime whereby the Peruvian Government guarantees:
INVESTORS
 Stability of regulations regarding non
discriminatory treatment.
 Stability
of income tax regime
applicable to dividends.
 Stability to use the most favorable
exchange rate available in the market.
 Stability of the free availability and
remittance of foreign currency,
dividends and royalties regime.
RECEIVING COMPANY
 Stability of the recruitment regimes.
 Stability of the regimes for the export
promotion .
 Stability of the Income Tax Regime
2. FRIENDLY INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
Special Regime: VAT Anticipated Recovery.
Regime whereby the Peruvian Government grants the following benefits:
 Granting the return of the Value Added Tax during the pre-productive stage
of the project (minimum 2-year term).
 Applicable to all economic sectors
 For agricultural activity it is not necessary to meet a minimum investment
amount. For other activities the minimum investment amount is US$ 5
million.
 The project can be divided into stages, phases or similar.
2. FRIENDLY INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
A steady tax regime:
Tax
Applicable Rate
30.0%
Corporate profits
INCOME
Agriculture and agribusiness 15%
Dividends
4.1%
Royalties
30.0%
Interest rate on loans from
abroad
4.9%
Value Added Tax (VAT)
Financial Transactions Tax
Temporary to net assets, applicable to
the excess of S/. 1 000 000
18%
0.005%
0.4%
OPEN TRADE AND
MARKET ACCESS POLICY
3. OPEN TRADE AND MARKET ACCESS POLICY
An open trade policy sustained over time
Evolution of nominal and effective tariff; and tariff dispersion 1993 – 2013
OPEN TRADE AND MARKET
ACCESS POLICY
Source:MEF
Notes:
1) Affective Tariff= (Amount of total revenue Ad valoren CIF / Total Amount of CIF Imports)*100.
2)Tariff Dispersion= Standard Deviation
3. OPEN TRADE AND MARKET ACCESS POLICY
TOP 10 PRODUCTS IMPORTED FROM TAIWAN
DESCRIPTION
N°
1 Polyethylene other n.e.s.
2 CD for recording
Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless
3
networks
4 Solid-state non-volatile storage devices
5 Polyethylene with additopn of titanium dioxide
6 Digital cameras and video camera recorders
7 Parts and accessories of the machines of heading 84.71
8 Other films, sheets, tapes and other flat adhesives
9 Polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or more
10 Rubber tires of a kind used in motorcycles
Other products
Total imported
CIF MIL
US$ 2013
46,101,320
39,316,888
21,731,128
14,806,662
9,706,890
8,062,732
7,786,443
7,314,740
6,661,344
6,255,644
259,546,621
427,290,413
3. OPEN TRADE AND MARKET ACCESS POLICY
TOP 10 PRODUCTS EXPORTED BY PERU TO TAIWAN
TRADITIONAL SECTOR
N°
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
DESCRIPTION
Cooper Cathodes and sections of cathodes
Fishmeal of a fat content by weight exceeding 2%
Gasoline n.e.s.
Cinc containing by weight 99,99 % or more of zinc
Cooper ores and concentrates.
Refined lead
Copper waste and scrap.
Coffee beans, except seed
Other fish oils
Leather, whole hides and skins, of a weight exceeding 16 kg
Other products
Total exported
FOB MIL
US$ 2013
45,987,399
28,379,332
28,146,742
27,198,506
26,015,707
2,209,396
634,665
124,544
123,390
46,835
6,464
158,872,981
3. OPEN TRADE AND MARKET ACCESS POLICY
TOP 10 PRODUCTS EXPORTED BY PERU TO TAIWAN
NON-TRADITIONAL SECTOR
N°
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
DESCRIPTION
FOB MIL
US$ 2013
Refined Copper wire of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6 mm 11,496,691
Bars, sections of refined copper
8,856,664
Fresh grapes
5,686,129
Refined Cooper plate, non roll, more than 0,15mm
4,790,450
Zinc oxide
3,211,259
Squid, giant squid, other n.e.s. dried, salted or in brine
3,026,989
Other molluscs n.e.s. - Locos, soft clams
2,539,516
Other molluscs n.e.s. - Locos, soft clams frozen, dried, salted or in brine
1,630,483
Squid, giant squid, prepared
1,425,144
Livers and roes, except HC 03.04
1,357,363
Other products
Total exported
9,272,625
53,293,313
OUR TRADE AGREEMENTS
Working to become a globalized economy,
with preferential access to the world’s largest markets
INVESTMENT
OPPORTUNITIES IN
ATTRACTIVE SECTORS
AGRIBUSINESS SECTOR
Natural greenhouse.
High agricultural yields: Sugarcane, Asparagus,
Olives, Artichokes, Grapes and Avocado.
Seasonal windows in major markets.
The 100,000 ha of land currently devoted to
agricultural exports are expected to double as a
result of large agricultural irrigation and expansion
existing projects.
More than US$ 4 billion in exports of fresh and
processed products to more than 145 countries.
Organic and Natural Products with high export
potential.
FISHING SECTOR
 Extensive fishing coastline (3,080 km)
and "bodies of water" which offer
favorable conditions for the development
of marine and continental aquaculture.
 First worldwide exporter of fish oil.
 Distribution of Peruvian fish products to
over 100 countries.
 Tendency to product diversification.
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
 The Manufacturing sector, with a share of
16.5%, is the second sector, in shaping the
Gross Domestic Product.
 During the last years, the area of intermediate
goods showed increased production
associated with increased demand from the
construction sector, highlighting the use of
structural metal products, cement and plastic
products, as well as an improvement in some
of the textile products.
MINING SECTOR
 Polymetallic country, second in the world
for copper reserves, third in zinc, and first in
silver.
 13.61% of the land is subject to mining
concessions, and only 1.09% of the land is
taken for mining exploration and
exploitation.
 In the world: Third producer of copper,
silver, tin and zinc worldwide.
 In 2013, investment in mining increased to
14.35%, reaching a value of US$ 9,724
million.
 Peru is one of the few countries in the
world with non-metallic mineral deposits,
including diatomite, bentonite, limestone
and phosphate.
ENERGY SECTOR
 Great energy potential: The wide availability of
water resources and natural gas has enabled to
meet the growing electricity demand in the
country.
 The 2013 energy mix comes mostly from hydro
generation (53%) and natural gas (46%). The
remaining 1% comes from other renewable
sources.
 Resources to be discovered and exploited: There
are other renewable energy sources to be
explored such as solar, wind, biomass and
geothermal sources.
PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR
In 2013, natural gas production totaled 430.559
million cubic feet, driven by growing demand from
power plants, increased consumption of natural gas
vehicles (NGV), domestic and commercial.
Peru is the only sustainable source of natural gas in
the South American Pacific.
Peru has oil fields that have not been explored
(29.97 million ha), making it a potential
petrochemical hub.
Among the products produced by the petrochemical
industry are Final fertilizers, plastics and detergents.
Investment opportunities for US $ 8.650 million for
the construction of 3 floors of ammonia, 2 levels of
ammonium nitrate, urea and 2 floors of an ethylene
plant.
TOURISM SECTOR
 Important
cultural
destination
for
archaeological sites of the Inca and pre-Inca
cultures. Machu Picchu was voted one of the
New 7 Wonders of the World.
 Diversity of natural settings.
 Destination for bird and orchid watchers.
 Lima is considered the gastronomic capital of
Latin America.
 Important investment by internationally
renowned hotel chains.
 Increased connectivity of the Peruvian air
market with increased weekly frequencies in
international flights to allow more connections
and destinations, with more and better travel
options.
REAL ESTATE
 The average GDP growth in the
construction period January to December
2013 is 8.56%.
 The significant growth of the economy is
driving increased demand for housing,
shopping centers, commercial offices, hotels
and leisure home .
SERVICES - OUTSOURCING
 Peru has the lowest labor costs per operator in
Latin America (US$ 270), a factor that accounts for
60% of operating costs in contact centers.
 Presently, contact centers represent 23,063
positions generating 36,479 direct jobs. In 2013
exports grew by 10%.
 Exports of services from contact centers, data
processing, computer application and programs and
the likes are not subject to VAT.
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
 Peru has prioritized the development of
transport infrastructure (road, rail, port and
airport) to increase competitiveness and set a
logistics hub that integrates Latin America, the
economic region of Asia - Pacific.
 The developed infrastructure will be
complemented by new investments planned
by 2016, the ERM, having previously realized
projects over US$ 17.700 million (APP and
public
works); representing
significant
investment opportunities for contractors and
operators.
THE LIMA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE - LCC
Who we are?
•
The Lima Chamber of Commerce was founded in 1888, more than
126 years
•
October, 2014: More than 13,000 members (Multisectorial)
•
Not compulsory, voluntary membership
•
SMEs = 84.6 % members
•
1,500 exporters & 3,500 importers
•
3 times finalist in the World Chambers Competition
THE LIMA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE - LCC
Our services:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Business Defense
Advice and Support to Business
Management
Business Opportunities
Business Internationalization
Promotion
Business Training
Modern Infrastructure to host
Events, Meetings and Presentations
Resolution of Controversies
Arbitration
Credit Information
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Economic Analysis and Information
Projects with Multilateral Institutions
E-Commerce Promotion
International Business Round Table
Weekly Magazine
Directories, Guides
Fairs organization
Forums & Summits
Foreign Trade Statistics Information
THE LIMA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE - LCC
THANK YOU
JOSE ROSAS BERNEDO
GENERAL MANAGER