Transcript mauritania - Iktissad Events

The Mauritanian Economy:
Performance and Outlook
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
JANUARY 2014
Achieving Macroeconomic
Stability
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
 Successful completion of the 3-year Extended Credit
Facility program with the Fund (2010-13).
 In a difficult external environment:
 Global financial crisis, European crisis, food price hikes.
 And challenging regional and domestic conditions.
 Political uncertainty related to the Arab Spring
 Mali crisis
 2012 Drought
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
 Restored macroeconomic stability
 Strong growth dynamics combined with contained inflation
 Buildup of external and fiscal buffers
 Progress with restoring the health of the financial sector
 Substantive progress with the structural reform
agenda



Fiscal: Public financial management, revenue mobilization, tax
and custom administration
Progress on financial sector reforms and foreign exchange
markets
Elimination of the diesel subsidy
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
..and across sectors
Growth has been above peers,
20
16
Real GDP Growth
Sub-Saharan Africa
16
14
MENAP oil importers
Real non-oil GDP growth
12
Mauritania
12
Gross Domestic Product
(Percent)
Real non-extractive GDP
growth
Real GDP growth
10
8
8
6
4
4
2
0
0
-2
-4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
..with significant growth
in cereal production…
400
..and mining production.
50
350
Mining
(Tons)
Cereal Production (in tons)
350
300
40
250
300
30
200
Irone ore (thousands of tons, LHS)
250
20
200
Copper ( thousands of tons, LHS)
150
Gold (thousands of ounces, RHS)
100
10
150
50
0
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
Inflation has remained
under control…
18
16
Inflation
(Period average)
14
…in line with declining local
and imported inflation
16
Sub-Saharan Africa
MENAP oil importers
Mauritania
14
Inflation
(Percent)
Overall
Local
12
Imported
10
12
8
10
6
8
4
6
2
4
0
2
-2
0
-4
Feb-09
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Apr-10
Jun-11
Aug-12
Oct-13
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
…driven by improved
revenue mobilization
Fiscal outcomes have been
stronger than in peers…
12
80
Overall Fiscal Balance
(including grants, percent of GDP)
8
MENAP oil importers
Sub-Saharan Africa
Mauritania
4
60
0
Revenues
Grants
Non-extractive non-tax revenues
Non-extractive tax revenues
Extractive revenues
40
-4
20
-8
-12
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
..which has supported a
hike in public investment
75
60
…financed mostly by
domestic resources
25
Expenditures
Interest
Subsidies and transfers
Goods and services
Wage bill
20
15
45
Investment
Foreign-financed investment
Domestically financed
investment
10
30
15
5
0
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
Public debt remains elevated,
but debt service has improved.
Concessional external
financing dominates.
15
Sources of Financing
(percent of GDP)
14
10
12
10
5
250
Debt Profile
Interest Payments (Percent of GDP)
205
Principal Amortization (Percent of GDP)
160
Debt to GDP (Percent, RHS)
8
0
115
6
-5
70
External financing
4
Domestic
-10
25
2
Use of oil revenues
0
-15
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
Widening of the current
account mostly driven by
extractive industries
And has been mostly financed
with FDI and official loans
120
Current Account
(In percent of GDP)
80
50
Current Account Balance
Financial Account
(in percent of GDP)
35
Current account balance excluding imports of
extractive industries
40
20
5
-10
0
Other Financial Flows
Official MLT Loans
-25
FDI (Net)
-40
-40
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
Current account relies on
traditional exports…
150
130
880
Goods Export Revenue
(Percent of total exports)
110
90
…and benefits from
benign price dynamics
780
Iron ore exports
Others
480
50
380
30
280
10
180
2008Q3
Copper
Oil
580
Gold
2010Q1
2011Q3
2013Q1
80
2008
Food
Iron ore
680
Fish exports
70
-10
2007Q1
Commodity Price Indices
(2005=100)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
…in the context of a
relatively stable currency
External buffers are at an
historically record level…
30
8
160
Gross official reserves
(percent of GDP)
7
140
Reserves (in months of nonextractive imports; RHS)
6
120
5
100
Foreign Exchange Reserves
20
10
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4
80
3
60
2
40
1
20
0
0
350
Exchange Rates
(Index, 2005=100)
300
250
200
150
Real effective exchange rate
100
Nominal effective exchange rate
UM/USD (right scale)
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1. Achieving Macroeconomic Stability
Private sector credit growth
has remained subdued
..banks remain well capitalized
but have low profitability
35
40
35
Private-sector Credit Growth
(y-o-y; percent)
30
Policy rate
30
25
Credit growth
25
Banking Indicators
(End-2012; percent)
T-bill rate
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Jun-08
Oct-09
Feb-11
Jun-12
Oct-13
Return on
assets
Return on
equity
Capital to Regulatory
assets ratio capital ratio
Economic Outlook
2. Economic Outlook
Initial
Conditions
Context
Outlook
• Macroeconomic stability
• Higher resilience to external shocks
• Prudent macroeconomic policies
• Still elevated commodity prices
• A strong mining potential
• Positive, with an opportunity to support stronger and
more inclusive economic growth dynamics.
2. Economic Outlook
 Positive economic outlook: Annual average real GDP
growth above 7 percent over the medium term.
 …fueled by mining, agriculture and fishing,
construction and services,
 …and with positive effects on potential growth.

….and challenges remain.
2. Economic Outlook: Challenges
Resilience to external shocks
Private sector development and
economic diversification
More inclusive growth dynamics
2. Economic Outlook: Challenges
Economic Diversification
Private Sector Development
 Increasing resilience of
 Improve business
the economy to external
shocks
 Enhance domestic
sources of growth
dynamics
 Economic
transformation to
increase higher valueadded output
environment
 Financial deepening and
access to finance
 Improve labor markets
dynamics
 Reduce informality
2. Economic Outlook: Challenges
More inclusive growth dynamics
 Access to drinking water and electricity
 Improve education and access to health
 Better targeted social transfers to reach the
most vulnerable
3. Conclusions
 Mauritania’s economic potential is large, with
opportunities to capitalize in the coming decade.
 Private sector development will drive economic
diversification and job creation.
 Promoting more inclusive economic growth is
crucial to improve living standards for the
population overall.
 Good management of the economic juncture will
provide Mauritania with a historic opportunity to
transform this country.
Thank you!