Transcript S15_Haidy_Harnessing Youth Participation to Overcome Middle

HARNESSING YOUTH PARTICIPATION
TO OVERCOME MIDDLE INCOME TRAP
Haidy Ear-Dupuy
ADB’s NGO and Civil Society Center
Regional Sustainable Development Department
ASIA’S 6% GDP FROM 1960-2010
Structural Change
Migration
Labor Contribution to Development
RE-EMERGENCE OF ASIA
Asian Share of Global GDP
• Asia accounted for about 60% of
world economy before Industrial
Revolution
• In the following two centuries,
Asia’s share declined to 15%
• Asia’s share today is 28%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1700
1820
1870
1913
1950
1973
2003
2010
Asian Growth Rates
12.0%
GDP Growth Rate
10.0%
8.0%
Japan
6.0%
NIC's
4.0%
China & India
• Asia began to re-emerge after
1950, spurred first by Japan,
followed closely by the NICs
• Starting in 1980s, first PRC then
India gave further boost
2.0%
0.0%
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2010
3
ASIA 2050: ASIAN CENTURY
Two scenarios:
Asia Century (AC, high case) and
Middle Income Trap (MIT, low case)
scenarios.
AC not Preordained: income disparities,
environmental challenges, resources
limitation, governance, climate changes
THE ASIAN CENTURY
Converging Asia Scenario: 2050
Middle East
Rest of
& North
Sub Saharan Africa, 3% World, 2%
Africa, 2%
GDP at market exchange rate (Trillion)
World
333
Asia
174
United States
38
Europe, 18%
Latin
America &
Caribbean,
10%
Asia, 52%
GDP per capita at Constant PPP
World
37,300
Asia
40,800
United States
94,900
North
America,
13%
Per cap incomes similar to Europe today; No poor country.
Asian century driven by Asia 7: India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, PRC,
Republic of Korea, and Thailand projected to account for 91% of Asia’s
growth between 2010-2050.
5
WHAT’S NEXT FOR MIDDLE INCOME?
More Value Addition and growth with inclusion and
equity
• Better skills
• Beyond factory to services and knowledge-based
• Deepening interaction and participation—more
inclusion
• Connecting economics to governance
• Role of the people—youth energy
YOUTH INCLUSION
YOUTH: A PRECIOUS NATURAL RESOURCE
ASIAN YOUTH CARES ABOUT GOVERNANCE
• Deepening Intergenerational engagement
• Better skill-higher value
• More interaction with government—Balanced approach to
governance
• More responsive governments—supply and demand
• Governance matters to youth
• Global Opening Government Survey 2013: 50,000 responses
from 61 countries “80% from Mongolia, 82% in Indonesiawant government to be more open”
As countries get richer, their citizens demand a
greater say-voice- in defining the country’s goals
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
6
7
8
9
(log) real GDP per capita, 2005
10
11
GOOD GOVERNANCE MATTERS TO GROWTH
AND DEVELOPMENT
• “The manner in which power is exercised in the
management of a country’s social and economic
resources for development” (ADB 2000)
• Worldwide Governance Indicators
• MDBs give it a high weight (ADB-ADF, World
Bank- IDA)
• UN proposing good governance as a post-MDG
target
• 2012 survey in 90 countries: People rated it as
top priority after education and health
INCOME AND GOVERNANCE DIMENSIONS
Voice
Score
2.5
1.25
RMI
FSM
KIR
PAL
TAP
KOR
HKG
TUV
VAN
SAM
IND
TON
TIM
0
SOLPHI
MON
PNG
INO
GEO MLD
BHU THA
SRI
BAN
NEP
KGZ
PAK
CAM
-1.25
AFG
MYA
TAJ
VIE
LAO
UZB
SIN
MAL
ARM
BRU
FIJ
KAZ
AZE
PRC
TKM
Regulatory quality
Score
-2.5
6
8
10
log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
2.5
12
HKG
SIN
1.25
TAP BRU
KOR
MAL
GEO
ARM THA
0
SRI
KGZ PHI
MON PRC KAZ
SAM
INO
IND
MLD
AZE
CAM
FIJ
PNG
PAK
VIE VAN
TON
NEP
BAN
PAL
FSM
RMI
TIM TAJLAO
SOL
BHU
TUV
KIR
AFG
UZB
-1.25
ADB’s Asian Development Outlook 2013
MYA
TKM
-2.5
6
8
10
log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
12
Control of corruption
Score
2.5
SIN
HKG
1.25
BHU
VAN
SAM
MAL
GEO
RMI
FSMTON
SRI THA
SOL
PAL
TUV
INDFIJ ARMPRC
VIE
INO
MON MLD
NEP
PHI
BAN LAO
PAK
KAZ
TIM
CAM
PNG
KGZ
AZE
TAJ
UZB
TKM
AFG
MYA
TAP BRU
KOR
KIR
0
-1.25
-2.5
6
8
10
log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
12
Political Stability
Score
2.5
KIR TUV
FSM
VAN
TON
SAMBHU
1.25
PAL
MON RMI
SOL
TKM MAL
VIE
FIJ
LAO
ARM
MLD KAZ
TIM CAM
SRI
AZE
UZB
GEO PRC
PNG INO
TAJ
THA
KGZ
MYA
IND
PHI
BAN
NEP
0
-1.25
-2.5
SIN
BRU
TAPHKG
KOR
AFG
PAK
6
8
10
log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
12
Government effectiveness
Score
2.5
SIN
HKG
1.25
MAL
KOR
TAP
BRU
BHU
GEO
PRC
THA
PHI
SAM
IND
SRI
ARM
INO
VAN
VIE
MLD KAZ
TON
PAL
KGZ
MON
PNG
FSMFIJ
CAM
KIR
UZB
TUV
AZE
NEP
PAK
BAN
SOL
TAJLAO
TIM
0
-1.25
AFG
MYA
TKM
RMI
-2.5
6
8
10
log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
12
Rule of law
Score
2.5
SIN
HKG
1.25
PAL
TAP
KOR
BRU
SAM
MAL
TUV
VAN
BHU RMI
KIR
TON
FSM
SRI
IND GEO
THA
MON MLD
VIEPHI ARMPRC
SOL INO
KAZ
BAN
PNG
AZE
PAK
FIJ
LAO
NEP CAM
TIM TAJ
KGZ
UZB
TKM
MYA
0
-1.25
AFG
-2.5
6
8
10
log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
12
INCOME AND VOICE
MIDDLE INCOME AND VOICE
Inclusive policy
making
Bottom up
Budgeting
Planning
Resourcing
Story telling
MfDR framework
Evaluation
Implementation
Monitoring
Citizen’s Report
Card
CSO/youth
participation
17
TOOLS FOR ENGAGING WITH YOUTH
•
•
•
•
Citizen’s Voice and Action
Grassroots Budgeting
Participatory Governance
eGovernance
GOVERNMENT PARTNERSHIP
ASIAN YOUTH IN ACTION
•
•
•
•
ANSA’s Check My School program/Banthay.PH
Youth’s Philippines Good Governance Summit
National Youth Commission on Grassroot budgeting
ADB’s Asian Youth Forum New Delhi 2013—Youth Debate on
critical policy issues-Kazakhstan 2014
• UN Technical working group on youth
• Due to the participation of youth in the 5th General Meeting of
Network of Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO), NARBO
is now preparing a new program for young professionals.
• Korea Water Forum 2015 will include youth water
organizations—inclusion in policy discussion
INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND
GOVERNANCE
• Stem and reverse the decline in governance – more
than dealing with corruption—develop trust
• More transparent and accountable governance
• Effective decentralization
• Requires strengthening of institutions and building
new ones
• Increased voice and participation of citizenry
21
CONCLUSION
• There is a correlation between wealth and demand for better
governance—more efficient and effective
• Knowledge economy requires space for participation
• Path for each middle income countries differs, balanced
approach to governance dimensions--contextual
• Is MIT a misallocation of Talent and innovation stagnation? Or
is it an economic constraint that needs a social solution?
• Young people care about governance—voice and
accountability—How does MfDR consciously support
inclusion?
• How do you envision your youth contributing?
• What are some of joint government and youth initiatives for
improved services?