Transcript or $? quantifying stuff: satellite view

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Tackling systemic questions
BELS, London
2009.10.12
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Simon Roberts
Associate Director, Foresight Group
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can quickly could our carbonbased economy become a
low- then zero-carbon
economy?
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4
how does our economy need
to adjust to persistently high
oil prices?
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if we reduce demand for
carbon-intensive goods,
can we still have a healthy
growing economy?
6
can we afford to radically
scale up renewable energy?
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desirable objectives are low
carbon emissions, energy
security, economic growth and
low unemployment;
can they all be achieved
together?
smooth
transition
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beehive
financial
reproduction
(queen)
account
fertilization (drones)
cleaning
the hive
income
feeding the larvae
receiving nectar and
pollen
guarding the hive
financial
foraging
account
current
account
transfers
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which bee owns which cell?
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trade in fuel
concepts
energy
PJ/y
financial
account
transport
km/y
income
stocks of
stuff
working
population
capita
financial
account
current
account
transfers
services
£/y
trade in services
flow of
stuff
/y
trade in
goods
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all physical assets
Agriculture
Basic metals
Chemicals, chemical products &
man-made fibres
Coke, petroleum products & nuclear
fuel
Construction
Conventional power plants
Education
Electrical & optical equipment
Electricity distribution
Fabricated metal products
Financial intermediation
Food, beverages & tobacco
Health & social work
Hotels & restaurants
Housing
Leather & leather products
Mineral products
Mining
Nuclear power plants
Public admin. & defence
Publishing & printing
Pulp, paper & paper products
Real estate
Renewable power plants
Rubber & plastic products
Social & personal services
Textile & textile products
Transport equipment
Transport, storage and
communication
Water
Wholesale & retail trade
Wood & wood products
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dwellings
sectors
services
INDUSTRY
SERVICES
Transport equipment
Electrical & optical equipment
Chemicals, chemical products &
man-made fibres
Rubber & plastic products
Wood & wood products
Food, beverages & tobacco
Construction
Pulp, paper & paper products
Publishing & printing
Basic metals
Fabricated metal products
Mineral products
Coke, petroleum products & nuclear
fuel
Leather & leather products
Textile & textile products
Real estate
Health & social work
Transport, storage and
communication
Education
Public admin. & defence
Financial intermediation
Social & personal services
Wholesale & retail trade
Hotels & restaurants
DWELLINGS
industry
nucl.
RE, etc
VPJ @ 2009
OTHER SECTORS
Agriculture
Mining
Conventional power plants
Renewable power plants
Nuclear
Electricity distribution
Water
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quantifying stuff: satellite view
£ or $?
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quantifying stuff: satellite view
£ or $?
numbers of houses?
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quantifying stuff: satellite view
£ or $?
numbers of houses?
m²?
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quantifying stuff: satellite view
£ or $?
numbers of houses?
m²?
embodied energy?
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embodied energy
energy
PJ/y
financial
account
transport
km/y
stocks of
stuff
VPJ
working
population
capita
services
£/y
flow of
stuff
VPJ/y
trade in
goods
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data sources
• Blue Book (Office of National Statistics)
• Pink Book (Office of National Statistics)
• DUKES (BERR)
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employment
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sector sizes
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jobs ÷ sector size = employability
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direct energy use
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energy efficiency
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direct energy use
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output of goods
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sector investment
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service demand
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service demand indices
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transport
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primary fuel
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household consumption
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GDP
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CO2
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balance of payments
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win-win on the BoP!
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International Investment Position
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city trader: fixed interest dealing
“They’re mad!”
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trade in fuel
add trade etc.
energy
PJ/y
financial
account
income
foreign
assets
£
financial
account
BoP
£/y
transport
km/y
domestic
liabilities
£
stocks of
stuff
VPJ
income
working
population
capita
current
account
transfers
services
£/y
trade in services
flow of
stuff
VPJ/y
trade in
goods
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news items
UK & USA
protect bankers’
bonus
OFGEM
consumer
bills
Jinjao: energy
intensity of
industry
Jinjao: CO2
intensity of
energy
OFGEM
rising gas
imports
Royal Mail
dispute
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scenarios: hierarchy of drivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
employment
service provision responds to demand
industry investment
house building
North Sea production
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scenarios: indices
jobs
energy
service demand
÷
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services indices
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reactive: sector investments
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employability
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unemployment
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reactive: GDP
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reactive: energy efficiency
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reactive: transport volume
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reactive: primary fuel
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fuel prices
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reactive: balance of payments
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proactive scenario!
• Energy efficiency: more investment
• Renewables: more investment
• Transport: aggressive volume reduction
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proactive: sector investments
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proactive: energy efficiency
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proactive: energy types
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proactive: transport volume
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proactive: primary fuel
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proactive: balance of payments
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scenario observations
• Reactive:
• unemployment 4%
• growth 1%/y
• sterling 1%/y devaluation
• CO2 no change
• Proactive:
• unemployment 4%
• growth 1%/y
• sterling holds value
• CO2 40% reduction
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tackling systemic questions
time to zero-carbon?
-40% by 2025 possible
increasing oil prices?
can "afford" but just reduce km!
demand reduction with growth?
allow services to expand
afford more renewables?
just reduce consumption a little