Transcript Global Indices of Opinions and Perceptions

WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Introduction and An Overview
by
Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani (Email: [email protected])
and
Professor Takashi Inogouchi (Email: [email protected])
Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS:
Reflections on Indices developed during 1945-2015
Panel Paper # 1
Presented at
WAPOR Annual Congress, Buenos Aires, Argentina
June 16-19, 2015
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
We generally know what we can
NAME and beyond it if we can MEASURE
what we have named
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
THINGS OR RELATIONSHIPS WHICH CAN
BE NAMED AND MEASURED ARE MUCH
MORE IMPORTANT IN OUR ‘REALITY’
COMPARED TO THOSE WHICH ARE NOT
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
WHILE REALITIES ARE SHAPED BY THE WAY
IN WHICH WE
NAME AND MEASURE
THEM, NEW AND ‘EMERGING REALITIES’
ARE
IN
SEARCH
OF
NAMES
AND
MEASUREMENT APPROACHES
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
IN
A
NUTSHELL
Introduction and An Overview
‘NAMING’
AND
‘MEASURING’ IS PART OF SCIENCE AS
WELL AS POLICY AND POLITICS
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
IT IS NOT WITHOUT REASON THAT THE AMERICAN
CONSISTITUTION WROTE A CLAUSE WHICH REQUIRES A
CENSUS OF POPULATION EVERY TEN YEARS
AMERICAN PRESIDENTS (NOTABLY HOOVER) ENGAGED
AT GREAT LENGTH ON MEASUREMENT AND THE ISSUES
JUST STATED ABOVE. THESE DISCUSSIONS CONTNUE TO
THIS DAY
Documented by Raymond Bauer (1966) and Z. Karabel (2014)
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
EMERGING RELATIES REQUIRE THAT THOSE
SHOULD BE ‘NAMED’, ‘MEASURED’ AND
‘HARNESSED’ ACCORDING TO POLICY
PERSPECTIVES
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
20th Century
IN THE FIRST HALF, THE FOCUS WAS ON
MEASURING ‘NATIONAL ECONOMES
It was later extended to
CORSS-NATIONAL COMPARISONS/
COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH
A field developed by Simon Kuznets (1965) for which he received
a Nobel Prize in Economics
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
20th Century
IN THE SECOND HALF, THE FOCUS WAS ON
MEASURING ‘SOCIAL INDICATORS’
Apparently this was a reaction to
Over-emphasis on ‘Economy’ which
triggered search for ‘Other Indicators’
Details available in Raymond Bauer (Edited) Social Indicators, MIT Press 1966
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
21th Century
THE FOCUS IS ON
MEASURING A GLOBALIZED WORLD
HOWEVER INDICATORS AND MEASUREMENT
APPROACHES ARE STILL SHAPING
The Process is perhaps only at an early stage
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
TWO HURDLES
Hurdle # 1
GOING BEYOND ‘ECONOMICS’
Hurdle # 2
GOING BEYONG ‘NATIONAL’
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Search for Indicators and Measurement Approaches
BEYOND ECONOMCS
Behavioral Economics is One Example
Kahneman received a Nobal Prize for contribution in that field
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Search for Indicators and Measurement Approaches
BEYOND NATION
World Values Survey is
One Example. It began as a
multi-country exercise
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
DOCUMENTING OF HISTORY IS OFTEN NEEDED
TO GO BEOND THE CONVENTION
BECAUSE IT INFORMS US OF THE PROCESS
THROUGH WHICH PREVIOUS CONVENTIONS
WERE MADE INTO ‘HISTORY’
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
For a detailed version of this paper we have chosen
2 Books as key source materials
INTERESTINGLY BOTH DID NOT RECEIVE
WIDE ATTENTION IN THE FIELD, despite strong
credentials of the Authors and Publishers
Raymond Bawer (ed)
Social Indicators, 1966
Zachary Karabel,
The Leading Indicators,
A Short History of the Numbers that
Rule our World, 2014
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
RAYMOND BAUER (1966)
The first Book was very interestingly produced
under sponsorship from NASA (before landing
on the Moon) to research the Consequences
of
such
a
prospect
on
Society
in
a
comprehensive way (Economics and beyond)
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
ZACHARY KARABEL (2014)
The Second Book is driven by concerns with
the Global Economy. It is written by a historian
trained at Columbia and Harvard History
Departments, who introduces himself as an
’author, money manager and head of global
strategy at a consulting Group’.
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
A short Chronology of
GLOBAL INDICATORS DURING
1945-2015
Phase # 1: 1945-65
FOCUS ON ECONOMY
1234-
GDP/GNP: Per Capita National Income
Unemployment (Unemployment Rates)
Inflation (Consumer Price Index-CPI)
Inequality (Gini Coefficient)
Continued……..
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Phase # 2: 1965-1990
Introduction and An Overview
A short Chronology of
GLOBAL INDICATORS DURING
1945-2015
FOCUS ON GOING
‘BEYOND ECONOMY’ AND ‘CROSS NATIONAL’
1- Civic Culture (Almond and Verba)
2- Democracy and Freedom (Freedom House)
3- World Values (Inglehart et.al)
4- Human Development Index (UNDP-Amartya Sen
and Mahboob ul Haque)
5- Human Poverty Index (World Bank et.al)
Continued……..
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Phase # 3: 1990-2015
Introduction and An Overview
A short Chronology of
GLOBAL INDICATORS DURING
1945-2015
Focus On Going Beyond Nation and Reaching
out to ‘State’ and ‘Non-state’ Actor/ Audiences/
Policy Makers – FOCUS ON A GLOBALIZED WORLD
1- Corruption Perception Index – Transparency International
2- Consumer Confidence (Reuters-Conference Board)
Originally developed by Katona at University of Michigan in the 1950s.
Still continuing at Michigan for the US population
3- Market Research and Polling Industry driven work by
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Economist Intelligence Unit – EIU Economist London Group )Series
PWC and other leading Consulting Groups
Gallup Inc.
WIN-Gallup International Association
Ipsos-MORI
PEW Foundation
Globscan/BBC
Others ……….
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE: Phase # 3
1- THE ABSENCE OF A CUSTODIAN
Unlike Phase # 1 and (partly) Phase # 2 there is no
Custodian.
Central
Governments
were
fairly
unchallenged CUSTODIANS AND DRIVERS in Phase # 1.
INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS (UN, World Bank et.at)
or INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS of
Central Governments provided that Role in Phase # 2.
In Phase # 3 there are SEVERAL DRIVERS BUT NO
CUSTODIAN OR LEADER
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
2- WEAK ON THEORY
Introduction and An Overview
REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE:
PHASE # 3
In Phase # 1, there was a strong THEORETICAL GROUNDING FOR THE CHOICE
OF THE SUBJECT (Economy) AND ENORMOUS METHOLDOLOGICAL INPUT
FROM DISCIPLINES WHICH LED THE MEASUREMENT PROCESS (Philosophy,
Mathematics, Statistics).
This led to work like Kuznet and its critics. To cite an example, there is an
interesting literature spanning over at least a decade, spearheaded by
Economics Departments of leading American universities, on the concept
of ‘Purchasing Power Parity’ (PPP), and ‘Living Standards Measurement’
before developing the modified Indicator of GNP at Purchasing Power Parity
(PPP)*
This is less true for Phase # 2 and considerably less for Phase # 3
_____________
Work produced at National Bureau for Economics Research. Examples are Work by
Rudger Dornbusch (MIT); McCloskey and Zecher (Harvard) and many others
Continued……..
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE:
PHASE # 3
3- THE CURSE OF ABUNDANT DATA
Phase # 3 is preoccupied with (to borrow from recent economic development
literature which talk about ‘Resource Curse’) the Curse of Abundant Data which has
crowded out the hard work needed to develop new Global Indicators to Capture the
realities of a Globalized world. The BIG DATA is a GREAT OPPORTUNITY as well as partly
responsible for sluggish development of Indicators in Phase # 3
4- MISPLACED FOCUS ON MEDIA VISIBILITY
In Phase # 3 the Indicators are not necessarily addressed to a specialized audience of
scholars and policy makers. Instead they are addressed to a much wider media
audience.
The excessive focus on media visibility of the findings of global indices may hurt the
development of sound Indices.
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WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on
GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
PRESENTATIONS IN THIS PANEL
This Panel has tried to lay ground for documenting the history of a few global
indicators. In addition they also report on some of the data produced in the process. In
addition to this overview paper there are 5 papers, one on Economic Indices, one on
Public Health Indices and 3 on Governance related Indices. After the Overview paper,
which has been numbered as Paper # 1, Paper # 2 looks on Economic Indices .
Paper # 3 looks on a Public Health issue, namely Vaccine Confidence Index.
Paper # 4 looks at Governance related Indices (unfortunately the paper can not be
presented partly due to time constraints and partly because authors team was not yet
satisfied with their research).
Paper # 5 also looks at a Governance related Index, namely Index on Justice,
developed by the World Justice Program.
Paper # 6 looks at still another Governance related issue, namely Perceptions about
Freedoms. We are very happy to host this paper in our panel because its subject and
theme matched with that of this panel. It was not part of the original panel proposal.
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