Transcript Spain

EUROPEAN PROJECT COMENIUS “A NEW REALITY”
Partner: Spain (DATE: JANUARY 2009)
ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION
CONTENT:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GPD)
UNEMPLOYMENT
INFLATION
INCOME PER CAPITA
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
SAVINGS AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
PRODUCTIVE SECTORS IN MURCIA AND CEUTÍ
ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
OBJECTIVE: Analysis of the diferent economic indicators from:
 A global perspective.
 A European and local perspectives.
 The economic situation in Spain and the rest of the world per se.
1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The total values of all market goods and services produced in country given in a year
Gross Domestic Product
GDP, ACTIVITIES
NOTES:




Convergence 2008
GDP (U.S., euro zone
and Japan)
GDP INCREASED
Spain until 2007, after
drecrease.
Recession since at the
end of 2008 (decrease
of GDP)
Sharp fall in the
construction industry
Gross Domestic Product
From
the years 2000 to 2008
the CPI in the region of Murcia
grown above the national CPI.
2. UNEMPLOYMENT
UNEMPLOYMENT IN
DECEMBER 2008
SPANISH POPULATION PYRAMID 2009
 Emphasizes
the
low
birth rate.
 External migration has
represented
Spain
at
between 84.4% and 92.8%
of
annual
population
growth from 2002 to 2007
Most
of the population
is between 25 and 29
years of age.
 Immigration
in Spain
will fall till 53.8% between
2009 and 2011.
OCCUPIED RATES
Unemployment
increased up to 57.5%
and 63’7% in the Region
of Murcia and Ceuti
respectively from 2006 to
2008.
 Sharp
fall within the
construction industry.
 Unemployment
in
Spain is forecast to
reach
19%
at
the
medium term.
3. INFLATION
(Increase on the general price level)
CONSUMER PRICES
Declining
inflation
and aids to maintain
consumption.
Spain
inflation
matches with other
euro zone countries.
RAW
MATERIALS
CONSUMER PRICES
It
produces a sharp
decline in the index of
oil
contributing
to
overall inflation at
acceptable range.
We have located the
lowest inflation rate
of the last 15 months.
GDP per capita is
calculated by
contrasting the GDP
(gross domestic
product) of a country
with its populations
4. INCOME PERCAPITA
The richest countries in the
EU Luxembourg, Ireland and
Holland.
Spain
is
the
twelfth country in
the EU in GDP per
capita and stands
for 107% of the
EU average.
Murcia
84.4% GDP
An economic and
monetary union
allows to level the
income percapita of
each country
There are great differences
regarding the GDP within
the EU,. It ranges from the
upper level of 303% of
Inner (London) in the UK to
24% in the Northwest
region of Romania
power Bulgaria
(38%), Romania
(41%), Poland (54%),
Latvia (58%) &
Lithuania (60%) are
EU countries with
fewer purchasing
EU candidate
countries data:
Croatia (55%), Turkey
(42%), Macedonia
(29%), Serbia (35%)
and Albania (22%).
5. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
QUARTERLY INDEX OF EXPORT BY
GEOGRAPHICAL DESTINATION
 Spanish
QUARTERLY INDEX OF EXPORT BY TYPE OF
SERVICE
exports have grown
at a rate of 7.9% during the third
quarter of 2008.

 Remarkable

transport
industry
decrease in the
&
construction
Increase exports in Oceania,
South America & the emerging
European countries.
Decrease in Italy and Germany.
5. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
EXPORTS
* Spanish exports and import to the third quarter of 2008 by type of service *
IMPORTS
SPANISH EXPORTS
Grown at a rate of
7.9%
Fall in the
Evolution of foreign trade in
the European Union
transport &
construction
industry.
TOURISM
SPANISH IMPORTS
Grown at a rate of
5.2%
Fall in the
construction
industry.
MURCIA: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Europe is clearly the continent
where most goods are exported
Exports have surpassed
imports
Remarkable
Decrease
the arrivals
and nights spent by
tourists
Increase in the
communication
industry.
6. SAVINGS AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
COMPONENTS OF DEMAND:
SPAIN AND EURO ZONE
- IN EUROPEAN REGION CONSUMER
INDEX
CLIMATE IN THE
CONSTRUCTION
NOTES:
Falling household
consumption and fixed
capital formation since 2006.
Decreases the rate of
consumer confidence since
the beginning of 2007.
Both in Spain and the euro
zone rate of change of
climate in construction has
decreased significantly.
- IN SPAIN INDICATORS CONSUMPTION
•SALES (GREEN)
CAR SALES
HOUSEHOLDS
FINANCING
NOTES:
The growth rate of retail
sales have dropped since
mid-2007, which reflects the
consumers confidence.
Sharp drop in vehicle
sales since 2006
Sharp drop in bank loans
since 2007
7. PRODUCTIVE SECTORS IN MURCIA AND CEUTÍ
- SECTORS IN REGION MURCIA SECTOR WORKERS TO MURCIA
EVOLUTION SET NUMBER
TRABAJADORES EN MURCIA SEGÚN SECTOR PRODUCTIVO 2007
100
90
80
SECTOR PRIMARIO
SECUNDARIO
TERCIARIO
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
- SECTORS IN CEUTÍ BUSINESS SECTORS
REGION MURCIA:
The tertiary sector includes most
companies (90.4%).
Most business have from 1 to 4
90
80
70
employees.
60
50
40
CEUTÍ:
30
20
10
0
SECTOR PRIMARIO
EMPRESAS EN CEUTI
0,3
SECTOR SECUNDARIO
11,46
SECTOR TERCIARIO
88,16
Most jobs belong to the tertiary sector,
66% of the workers speciafically.
8. ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
 THE EURO ZONE (with Spain):

RECESSION!!
NEGATIVE INDICATORS:
GDP Decline; Increased unemployment;
Financial Problems; Possibility of
deflation; Decreased consumption

POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Low interest rates; Increased
Expendidure Public; Moderate inflation.
 THE REST OF EUROPE:

NEGATIVE INDICATORS: Slight drop in the
production

POSITIVE INDICATORS: Lower interest rates
SMALL
DECREASE IN
GROWTH
ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
- ECONOMY IN OTHER ZONES 1. THE UNITED STATES: GDP Decline (-),
Increased unemployment (-), Lower
interest rates (+) and Moderate inflation (+) ;
Financial Problems (-); Decreased
consumption (-)
2. JAPAN: GDP Decline (-); Depressed private
consumption (-); Decrease in exports (-);
Very Low inflation (+); Lower interest rates
(+).
3. CHINA: Slight decrease in consumption and
production (?); Lower interest rates (+);
Moderate inflation (+)
RECESSION!!
RECESSION!!
SMALL DECREASE
IN GROWTH
4. THE REST OF ASIA: Slight drop in
production; Lower interest rates (+) and
Moderate inflation (+); Increased
Expendidure Public (+).
SMALL DECREASE
IN GROWTH
5. SOUTH AMERICA: Good GDP; Moderate
inflation (+); Mild signs of slowing.
SINGS OF
DECREASE IN
GROWTH